Steve Kornacki: Why Trump wins independents in polls while struggling with them in primaries

[brooklynite]

Donald Trump is winning his primaries handily and has a virtual lock on the Republican presidential nomination — but a common interpretation of the results says that he is also exhibiting profound weaknesses among independents that portend dire general election consequences.

But there’s a hitch. A look at general election polling reveals a completely different story among independent voters — and a dive into all the other data we have on the 2024 presidential race shows why Trump’s poor independent numbers in the primary and better performance in general election polls are completely consistent with each other. The short answer: These are two very different groups of voters.

First, the evidence for Trump’s weakness among independents voting in this year’s GOP primaries is straightforward. Despite the widely acknowledged — even by his critics — inevitability of his nomination, Trump is still losing around 40% of the vote in Republican contests. And he’s getting crushed among independents, a group that looms large in November. From exit polling data, here’s how bad Trump’s numbers have been with them so far (note that exit polls weren’t conducted in Michigan):

...snip...

For context, Trump lost the independent vote to President Joe Biden in 2020 by a 9-point margin, 52%-43%, per the NBC News national exit poll. So the current general election polling actually indicates slight improvement for Trump (and a decline for Biden) among independents, albeit with a significant number indicating they don’t want either candidate.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/steve-kornacki-trump-wins-independents-polls-struggling-primaries-rcna140740

[TwilightZone]

1. Yep, the primaries and the GE are two very different things.

Despite the myriad attempts to fabricate one, there is no correlation between the two.

[mobeau69]

2. There's always a correlation. Some stronger than others. There are even negative correlations.

[TwilightZone]

10. Nope.

There is zero correlation. The groups of people who vote in primaries are completely different from the people who show up in November. It's simply a myth that will not die.

There actually is no historic correlation between primary turnout and general election turnout. None. The highest turnout in a Democratic primary—before the outlier of 2008—was in 1988. Gov. Michael Dukakis got killed in November. Democratic primary turnout was actually lower in 1992—two million fewer Democrats voted in the primaries that year. The drop in turnout didn’t stop Bill Clinton from winning the general election convincingly.

https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/presidential-campaign/272381-the-truth-about-primary-voter-turnout/

[mobeau69]

17. The writer of the snip you attached is using the term "correlation" as it's commonly understood by non-scientists. The

use of the phrase “no correlation” is intended to indicate a very, very weak correlation. Ex: -.0000000001 - +.000000001.

[gab13by13]

3. Correction

Trump is not winning his primaries handily.

His % is weak.

[brooklynite]

5. Did you mis-read the title?

Why Trump wins independents in polls while struggling with them in primaries

[All Mixed Up]

4. The problem comparing polling data of independents to exit polls...

...especially this far out is:

1. These recent polls (and NBC is using a poll from nearly a month ago, so, it's pretty outdated) are of registered voters - not likely voters. That absolutely can impact the overall data as we know for certain exit polls are of those who voted, not just registered voters.

2. Political affiliation in polling generally has a much larger MOE than the overall poll itself because you're dealing with a much smaller sample size. It's also more volatile to changes. But to hit on the first point: Trump is doing two-points better than he did in 2020's exit polls. When you factor in MOE, it's basically a wash if he's actually doing better overall. On top of that, Biden's numbers are much lower but that could be because undecideds have yet to move to him yet (which would be higher in a poll of registered voters and not likely). The common theme with polls is that Trump is hitting his 2020 mark but he's rarely exceeding it. Of those undecided, how many are leaning Biden?

To the second point: these numbers are volatile. I looked at NBC's last poll from 2020 but it didn't break down political affiliation. But I did go off a FOX News poll which had Biden leading by a similar final margin over Trump as the NBC poll and they had Biden winning the independent vote 54-32 - or by 22 points. The MOE for just that political affiliation as +/- 9 points, so, pretty unreliable. In reality, Biden won that group 52-43. So, they were almost ten-points off.

To me, this is just finding content to find content. There's nothing substantiative to take away from one poll that has Trump up among independent voters.

And it is just one poll.

In the Quinnipiac poll released last week, Biden wins indies 44-42.

So, who to believe?

[Lovie777]

6. Please stop it..................................

[brooklynite]

7. Stop what?

[TwilightZone]

13. Stalking other users...

and calling them out, however subtly, is generally frowned upon.

[FHRRK]

8. LOL - Kornacki

A lame ass fence sitter trying to prop up an Piece of Shit like tRump.

[brooklynite]

9. OR (just spitballing) a data analyst who goes where the story is.

I must admit to some fascination at how much angst he generates in these parts.

[FHRRK]

11. Lol, does HS level analysis and some think he is a genius

As he tries to spin shit for his Corporate Masters. A truly worthless piece of shit that has found a gig being a break from the talking heads.

And it least from my perspective - you are confusing angst with utter disdain. I can perform basic math, don't need some suck up to spin it.

[brooklynite]

15. Those would be the corporate masters who keep Rachel Maddow, Nicole Wallace etc on the air?

[FHRRK]

16. ROFLMAO

Nicole worked her entire career for Repubs, as did almost all of the hosts prior to her time slot.

Phil Donahue, K.O., how about them.

Lol give it up, and wasting my time.

[brooklynite]

18. MSNBC talking about the number of Haley voters who won't vote for Trump

Damn those Corporate Masters!!!

[TwilightZone]

12. He's not supposed to be partisan.

If you thought otherwise, you were mistaken.

The intense hatred of Kornacki is actually kind of hilarious. We constantly bash the right for refusing to acknowledge reality, then we bash Kornacki for reporting facts based on actual data.

Sometimes, the real world doesn't match up with our expectations. Or our demands.

This place just makes me laugh sometimes.

[FHRRK]

14. I'm not mistaken

But then I don't think Steve isn't partisan Brutus.