Latest polls show too much movement toward Trump from minorities

[Pototan]

I am celebrating my 1000th post here, so I hope I can express myself in a manner that makes my point but does not cause me trouble here at DU, because that's not my intention. When citing polls, please don't tell me to ignore the polls, because I think they are essentially accurate. Could they be off 5 points in one direction or another. Sure. But they are instructive. I also realize that they are a "snapshot" in time and could change.

Having said that, I just watched Harry Enten on CNN (corrected from OP) quote recent polls that show Trump's share of African American voters is the highest for a Republican in decades, perhaps 50 years. Among Hispanic voters, Biden was plus 24 in 2020, now he's plus 2.

I am 71 years old, retired and married to a 68-year-old Filipina and I live nearly full time in the Philippines. I moved here 2 years ago. There are members of my family that I no longer speak to because I called Trump a racist, and by extension, them for supporting him. I supported Black Lives Matter and railed against Trump for calling Mexicans (and we all know he meant all Hispanics) rapist and murders.

If young voters and POC voted for Biden, just in the numbers they did in 2020, our President would be up by double digits.

Sometimes, it's not the candidate's fault for a shift in voter sentiment. Sometimes it's the voters.

Anyway, older white voters with a college education are supporting Biden in greater numbers than in 2020. That's the demographic I'm in. But, if worse comes to worse, I'm already in another country. I made this decision (although I couldn't pull the trigger until 2022) right after 2016. I no longer wanted to live in a country in which 66 million (and later 77 million) people think a fucking no good, lowlife piece of shit, asshole like Donald Trump should serve as it's Chief Executive and Commander in Chief.

Color me discouraged and disappointed. And let me defend myself form any anticipated criticism. I supported and worked hard for Democrats in Massachusetts and nationally for fifty years. Every major office in Massachusetts was (and is) occupied by a progressive or left leaning Democrat. At 71, I am comfortable believing I did my part and earned a retirement for both me and my wife. At some point, others with more "skin in the game" have to wake up and do their part, or at least not work against themselves and their country.

[MOMFUDSKI]

1. The very people that will be first in line to be

stomped on!

[mucifer]

2. there are lots ways they can chip away to win. POC voters, pro Palestinian voters, some Zionist voters

People pissed about tic toc.

I go back and forth from being pessimistic to optimistic and back again.

[vadermike]

3. Terrifying

If there is that much movement away from Pres Biden with minority voters we could be in deep doo doo. Luckily the election is in Nov. let’s hope there is some movement back to Biden before that time. I am sure the Dems and Biden Harris team are taking nothing for granted though too. It’s gonna be a scary election for sure. Will be as close as 20 or potentially even closer…

[Baitball Blogger]

4. I think that, if we're lucky, Republicans will just do what they always do and cross some line

that exposes them. We just have to make sure the event gets amplified.

[Mountainguy]

5. I'll believe it when I see it in an election

I don't think that black voters are suddenly going to become MAGA.

[Celerity]

8. Black men are the most likely to vote for the orange plague, more than my fellow black women, but Joy Reid had a black

female longtime pollster on and she said that even within our black female group that there was a slight but definite movement to Shitler, mainly driven by the massive increases in housing, food, and petrol.

It's sickening to see, especially the more significant black male movement to the motherfucker.

I have watched many focus groups and interviews (studio, street, and insides a business, including the often clichéd barbershop) with hundreds of them in different states, expecially swing states or potential swing states like GA, NV, AZ, NH (not many there!), WI, MI, PA, and (potential swing states that I am far far less hopeful for) NC and FL, and I am dismayed at the fucked up takes so many have on the situation. Does me bloody head in.

[NJCher]

29. this one is astounding

Last fall I had a guy come over to help me with the leaves, and since I essentially live in a forest, that's a big job.

I got this guy for the job through a temp agency, and it's a good source but you do have to pay a lot per hour. $27 bucks an hour, I think. Anyway, all the people I've gotten through them have been smart enough and also good communicators.

So this guy is nice looking, maybe late 50s, in terrific shape, and is working the temp job because he's up here from the South to temporarily help his mother, who had an operation. He's returning to the South when she gets better. I believe he said his family was originally from the Dominican Republic or some other island down there (I forgot). Both his parents had careers as engineers. He told me about some of his jobs and he's had very good jobs, mostly as a facilities administrator.

We're working and having a friendly conversation when he remarks that "trump is a businessman." I burst out laughing, but quickly got control of myself because I wanted to find out why he thought this and I wanted an honest answer, not one that might be affected by my derisive attitude.

He went on to tell me he has not watched a news program in 30 years. He thinks they are all propaganda.

Yeah, how messed up is that? You turn off the news because you don't trust yourself to ferret out the propaganda?

And you think trump's a "businessman?"

[Silent Type]

6. Think things will improve closer to election, but I remember being shocked when I

first read about polls showing what appeared a significant shift. Seems like some similar polls were a year or more ago.

[Think. Again.]

7. May I ask an honest question?...

...you said that you think polls are essentially accurate.

May I ask why you think that?

Is it just a hunch?

Or do you have a well-founded reason to believe that no one would manipulate the polls to have the results turn out in a way that can be used to influence the public one way or the other in this extremely competitive election?

[Pototan]

11. As I said in the OP

The 2016 Presidential was within a point or two of the final prediction, nationally. Now, I think the small sample size in states, and the slim margins, can make it appear inaccurate, but they were relativley accurate nationally. 2018 mid-term was nearly on the money. 2020 maybe undercounted the Trump vote a bit, but well within my caveat of 5 points, either way, as stated in my OP. 2022 actually showed a national 2-to-3-point preference for Republican in the congressional national ballot, but the actual seats was a different story. The national polls were close, but I put no stock in congressional district polls because the sample size is too low.

So, as I said, 5 points, either way. A 24-point margin is 2020 for Biden among Hispanics to 2 points now, that's concerning. They ain't off that much. And African American men, well, those numbers show up, nationally, in multiple polls. Can the polls get a close election wrong. Absolutely. But to ignore these numbers is like whistling pass a graveyard. I have some idea on how to change that. Among the Latino, Hispanic, Muslim and Arab communities, Trump's rhetoric about deporting immigrants who are even here legally should concern everyone one of them. I know I'd be concerned for my wife, except we already left.

When Trump speaks of immigrants the way he does and to see Steve Miller and Steve Bannon pushing their racist agenda should concern every immigrant. To know that a vast majority of Trump cultists believe in the "replacement theory"; who do these Biden defectors think are the replacers and the replacees in this theory? And Trump has high level advisers who believe wholeheartedly this theory. I know who's not a "replacer" or a "Replacee". A third generation, 71-year-old white male American citizen living in another country. My wife and I are way down on the list of retribution. Before Trump tries to ferret me out from a rural province in the central Philippines for donating a few hundred bucks to Biden and posting criticism of Trump on DU, a lot of Americans will have been persecuted. (Please forgive me, the Sarcasm is not aimed at you)

All I can do now is donate a little money to the Biden campaign and my wife and I can cast an overseas ballot (big deal, Massachusetts). The rest is up to the people who are really in the Trump cult's political and legal crosshairs.

[Think. Again.]

18. Well I agree with doing all we can to help Biden no matter what the polls say...

...but your own words about minorities and immigrants make these polls you are citing seem absurd.

Thruthfully, the only indication that those groups are considering voting for tump are the polls you cite, nothing else indicates any such thing, and the whole idea goes against all common sense for the same reasons you mention, which makes me doubt those polls.

And as I'm sure you know, there have been plenty of instances where the polls were extremely wrong.

The purpose of manipulating polls into appearing as though any given group is doing something, is to influence others of that group to follow along. Polls, and statistics in general, are known to spread misinformation in very innocent sounding ways. You might be interested in reading a book titled "How To Lie With Statistics" by Darrell Huff, which has been taught widely in undergraduate statistics courses since the 1960s.

[Azathoth]

9. I know a lot of black and Hispanic folk who will vote Trump

Anecdotally far more than in 2016 or 2020. Non-maga white people trip all over themselves to tell me how much they hate Trump, but other folks have been much more varied in their opinions.

And from everyone I've talked to, there seem to be common threads. They're all careful to separate themselves from the racism cult he leads and acknowledge that he's "probably crazy."

They also all seem to be on similar pages as to why they will vote for him, and invariably it boils down to "high prices are killing us, the economy hasn't recovered as much as they say on TV, and Biden's complely out of touch and doing all the wrong things like letting immigrants flood in to strain our resources so we can't take care of Americans who are already here." And the senility smear has worked subtly, not so much that people think he's actually senile, but as an excuse for them to dismiss him as "not up to the job."

Inflation and illegal immigration are issues resonating in a lot of minority communities, especially after the bussing which has really strained a lot of blue cities. I've even heard this from a person who migrated from South America and came to the US legally under Biden's policies.

I think this may be an election where white middle class liberals find themselves truly out of touch.

[LeftInTX]

33. Inflation is bad. We can't deny it.

I'm cutting back on food and I'm far from cash strapped.

People on DU bash people who eat fast food, but guess what? Lots of voters eat fast food. So do lots of Democrats. So do lots of working people. So do lots of busy people. Lots of people don't have time to cook.

I'm disabled with chronic sciatica and it's very difficult for me.

I started making my own salads, (cuz they got too expensive to buy) but the ingredients are adding up. I went through a jar of pepperoncini in three days. Went through eight ounces of feta in three days.

I also do alot of printing at home. The cost of copy paper has skyrocketed...Yes, copy paper...It went from $3.00/500 sheets to $6.00/500 sheets. Card stock has really skyrocketed. Labels have skyrocketed.

Office Deport gutted it's SPC program in 2022. Yeah, I get an automatic 25% discount and sometimes I can 40% off, if I order $50 worth of printing, but I used to get 75% off.

[Aepps22]

10. Black Person Here

I'm Black and everyone that I talk to in barbershops, churches and other places have 0 interest in voting for Trump. This is ancedotal and not bashing polling but I am very skeptical.

[Pototan]

12. Will they sit out the election or vote 3rd party?

That's the point.

[womanofthehills]

42. In recent polls, 20% of blacks polled

Say they will not vote for Trump or Biden.

All of the above- 20% will either sit home, vote West, vote Kennedy, or whoever. A percentage could change their mind & still vote Biden but it’s not looking promising. Biden is promising billions to build low income housing but that’s in the future- not immediately.

[LeftInTX]

34. Lots of black people are mad at Biden about Gaza.

The Putin people have been working on turning the AA community against Biden. Many are gonna support Cornel West, not vote, Green Party etc.

[womanofthehills]

41. The majority of blacks are still voting Biden

But the smaller percentage of blacks possibly voting for Trump has risen by 5 points in some polls. It’s the 20% saying they won’t vote for either - West with 4% & Kennedy with 7% of that 20%.

[Bev54]

13. Harry Enten is on CNN not MSNBC. I do not believe him

As I have heard this before from others and yet when MSNBC has brought on Hispanics working with voting organizations they say it is simply not the case. The same in the AA community, MSM reports that young black males are not supporting Biden but they are seeing the opposite. Take these reports with a grain of salt and do some digging.

[Pototan]

25. Corrected OP on edit.

Thank you

[womanofthehills]

38. In 2016, Trump had 8% of black vote

Trump had 12% in 2020 & now some polls have him up to 17% of black vote (survey from Gen-Forward) but what is worse - they have 20% of black voters saying they won’t vote for Trump or Biden. - many will be voting for West.

[niyad]

14. Congratulations on your 1,000 post milestone. Did they indicate

which polls? Sample size? How chosen? Who commissioned the poll? These are questions that almost never seem to be asked, and which always make me wonder.

[womanofthehills]

39. More than Trump - it's the 20% who won't vote for either

“A survey from Genforward released last December, for instance, found that if the election were held that day, 17% of Black voters said they would cast their ballot for Trump. Meanwhile, 20% of Black voters polled said they would vote for someone else other than Trump or Biden, and 63% of the voters said they would support Biden”. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/02/29/donald-trump-black-voters-poll/72756083007/

[NoMoreRepugs]

15. Biden is being blamed for higher food, housing and gasoline costs?

When did he become all powerful? It’s just so stupid I honestly don’t know what to say.

[ShazzieB]

27. People always blame that stuff on whoever is president at the time.

I don't get it, either. I also don't understand why anyone would assume that any of those things will get cheaper if (God forbid) TSF is elected.

People are nutty.

[womanofthehills]

40. Housing seems to be a huge problem

Low & middle class families can’t afford to buy a house - or the price of an apartment without having a roommate

Most of the young that I know, have to have multiple room mates to meet rent or house payments.

Many moved back with parents. These are 30 yr old kids moving back with parents. Kids who have had their own places for 10 yrs. One is my grand daughter who recently moved back in with my daughter when her roommate left. My friend is a dr and her two 30 yr old kids moved back home & the topper is they are not even looking for work.

[MichMan]

57. Do you think if Trump was president, Democrats wouldn't be blaming him for inflation?

That is just how it is

[JoseBalow]

16. "we all know he meant all Hispanics"

I have met many, many racists that don't know and/or don't care that Mexicans come from Mexico, and other Hispanics come from other countries. As far as they are concerned, all Hispanics are "Mexicans" regardless, to them "Mexican" is a blanket term for all Hispanics.

I've even met some dumb assholes that refer to Asians as "Mexicans". To those shitkickers, if you ain't 'Murcan, yooz a damn Mexican!

[Pototan]

24. Certainly true about Filipinos

Filipinos all have Hispanic names, which dates back to 500 years of Spanish occupation. Filipinos can look Asian or Spanish.

But if you think most Americans can tell the difference from race, you'd be mistaken.

My wife was accosted twice in East Boston and shouted at because the assholes thought she was Chinese and brought covid to America. This is beside the fact she is a Filipina American citizen who lived in the US for twenty years at the time.

[Tickle]

47. Were you near Santarpios?

Best pizza in the world, if you ask me. Not that anyone asked me 😁💜

[Pototan]

49. Pizza is thin and crispy, but

the lamb is like shoe leather.

We lived in Revere, but my wife worked in East Boston. She was a CNA (Certified Nurse's Assistant).

I personally liked Javelle's better. I think they're closed now.

[Tickle]

59. I'm sorry to hear that

I haven't been there in years. I used to get the combo and a pizza. Haven't found a pizza place that can compare to my memory

[Demovictory9]

17. Trump moved the needle in terms if whats considered acceptable behavior

His lying and attacks against democracy are no longer shocking.

[summer_in_TX]

19. I do not dismiss the polls.

It's going to be a fight for votes in many places, especially among those who are turned off by news and stick to entertainment. They will be reached best by face-to-face discussions. But I confess that I tend to stick to my comfort zone. I know what I should be doing, and I'm not yet doing the face-to-face stuff.

I'm registering voters, and trying to become more courageous and effective.

[TeamProg]

20. I don't trust the political polls one iota. nt

[hay rick]

21. I am mistrustful of the polls and also the media reporting of those polls.

My belief is that there has been a proliferation of low-quality polls that rely on texting and "online surveys." These polls get placed along more rigorous polls but the result of averaging these polls is less reliable polling that is skewed rightward. The media likes stories that bolster their horse race coverage and shocks people into paying attention to their coverage. They have no incentive to question stories that are bringing them eyeballs. My view of polling is reinforced by the phenomenon of Trump and MAGA under-performing relative to pre-election polling in recent contests.

[All Mixed Up]

22. Unless the polling is specific to that minority group, it's pretty useless imo

Why?

Because most demographics in polls are a subset of the original sample size. They often have very high MOE, way higher than the overall poll, and also a much lower confidence rate. If a poll has a MOE of +/- 3.5 points and a confidence rate of 95%, basically the poll is confident the results will fall within that MOE 95% of the time.

But when you're looking at demographic subsets of the main poll, which frequently has a smaller sample size to begin with, you have a far higher MOE and a lower confidence rate. So, maybe the MOE is +/- 10.5 points with a confidence rate of 65%, meaning the poll is confident that the results would fall within +/- 10 points 65% of the time.

Look at this way:

You have a poll of 1,000 voters.

Of those, 100, or 10%, are Black.

Of that 10%, the MOE is actually +/- 10 .

So, you have 100 voters who identify as Black.

50 say they're voting Biden. 30 say they're voting Trump.

On its own, that breaks down to 70% Black support for Biden and 30% for Trump, which is a pretty big swing for Trump.

But if the MOE is +/- 10, it could really be 70 said they'd vote Biden - or 80 said they'd vote Biden.

That's a very simplistic view of it but demographic breakdowns from polls SHOULD NOT be used as a baseline for support because they are too prone to wild shifts.

Case in point: the latest FAU poll that has Biden +2 nationally but Trump actually winning the 18-34 vote by like 17 points. That would be a near-fifty point shift since the 2022 midterms toward the Republicans.

Does anyone really believe that? No. They shouldn't.

[womanofthehills]

43. Your post doesn't take independents into consideration

Will be a big problem this election.

[littlemissmartypants]

23. Congratulations on your 1,000 post milestone!

But I agree with niyad. It's extremely important to know the details of polling.

Did they indicate what organization created the polls?
Who did they poll?
Age group?
Men?
Women?
Where did they poll?
What was the sample size?
How were those responding to the poll chosen?
Who commissioned the poll?
Was it an online, cellular phone or landline poll?
And on and on....

These are questions that almost never seem to be asked, and which always make me wonder, too.

Without knowing the particulars...
they're a colossal waste of time.

Sorry Pototan, but I'm a big thumbs down on the topic.

[Turbineguy]

26. It would be the ultimate revenge.

For years of discrimination.

[shrike3]

28. I heard this prediction all through 2020 and it didn't pan out.

Hopefully, it's the same in 2024.

[Pototan]

30. Kick

[Captain Zero]

31. many black men ok with traditional female roles

I've seen and heard it over the years.

Not down with gay stuff either.

Many black women not ok with black gay males.

They could be getting targeted with more disinformation in key swing vote areas than we are aware of as well.

[Pototan]

32. I do agree

when asked why so many men of color support Trump (not a majority, but far too many) my answer is that more than just white men are misogynists.

[womanofthehills]

44. It probably has more to do with housing prices

and food prices.

[LiberalFighter]

35. If polls were accurate Hillary would have been President.

There are 229 days til the election.

We should not be worried about polls.

We should be working to help Joe and down the ballot.

There are a lot of variables. Mostly hanging the doofus. You are ignoring the troubles he has and will continue to have. Some think he will get away with it. Only because it is still early in the campaign. Messaging has to be timed right so it sticks in the minds of voters.

Sure he may have received 77 million voters in the last election. About five million won't be able to vote because they will be dead. The new voters will not be likely to vote for him as did those 65 and older. Then there are also over a million that won't vote for him because Trump killed them with Covid.

Those sent to prison because of j6 won't be able to vote. Those not arrested likely will keep a very low profile and don't want to be involved.

Consider all the strong Republicans that no longer support the Republican Party. They are only a tip of the iceberg.

Polls? Over 155 million voted. They can't determine the outcome reliably this far out from the election. Especially when results are by electoral votes.

From now until election day voters will be dropping off from supporting Trump. They will either not vote for either or will vote for Biden. For each one voting for Biden means a two vote change favoring him.

Trump only has a lock on about 35 percent of those that voted for him in 2020. About twenty percent of them will be dead.

There are many factors that will make it difficult. And when the media shows him at rallies speaking incoherently it will not look good.

[Pototan]

36. Hillary won the popular vote

As I have said in my OP and some of my replies, the large sampling of the national electorate makes the national polls pretty accurate. The 2016 national polls were only off a point or two. The 22 points that have evaporated from 2020 to now among Hispanics' support for Biden is concerning. Unless you think the polls are off 22 points, nationally, we should all take note.

My suggestion is to hammer away at Trump's statement of deporting Americans are here legally. That any minority voter even considers Trump is beyond me. Trump is surrounded by people who believe in the "great replacement theory". He will install racial and ethnic profiling. We should be hammering away at these issues on all Spanish speaking communications.

We ignore or rationalize these poll numbers at our own risk. I want to focus in on these voters like our lives depend upon it. If I'm wrong, all we've done is increase our margin of victory in the minority communities. If we don't, and it turns out I'm correct, we will have elected a dictator.

[betsuni]

48. Hillary said the national polls were slightly more accurate in 2016 than in 2012.

It was that last week that voters in swing states went for Trump or third parties.

[lees1975]

37. Believe no poll.

Sorry, first of all, I'm not seeing it and I live and work in a predominantly Latino and Black environment. If anything, Trump is more hated than ever.

Where's this data coming from? Wanna bet the Russians are infiltrating these electronic media polls? I would.

[Pototan]

45. If the polls are wrong and we work the minority community...

...hard, all we will have done is pad our margins. If the polls are correct and we ignore them, well, American Democracy dies.

If a fire alarm goes off, I'd rather assume there's a fire, than bank on it being a false alarm.

[betsuni]

46. Can't be helped. Not voting for Democrats, that's what they want for whatever reason.

What burns my bacon is the fantasy that it's Democrats' fault for not having magic messaging. President Biden could go to every household in the U.S. and explain things and it wouldn't make much difference.

[Pototan]

50. It could be that this current blending...

...of generations, in this particular moment in time, is not smart enough to protect a Democracy.

[betsuni]

52. I have little confidence in people. Will not be surprised with the worst case scenario.

I'm stupid and tend to assume that if I know something then everyone else should know it. Doesn't work that way!

[Pototan]

53. Sometimes, doesn't it feel like we're living...

...in the latest remake of invasion of the body snatchers?

[betsuni]

55. Oh, I always think of that movie!

People I think are normal go over to the dark side, Left or Right, all the time.

[brush]

56. Don't believe republican hype on right-leaning CNN. I am African-American...

and I can tell you that reading Black Americans leaning toward racist ass trump is bullshit. Neither I, my family, friends of acquaintance would ever think of voting for trump.

Consider your source and know that poll numbers can be easily manipulated to reflect what the poll sponsor wants.

Take that to the bank. It's kind of insulting that you think Black people are so naive and gullible to favor a racist because some manipulated poll says so. We don't support racists.

[GreenWave]

51. Where are the intentionally discouraging polls for Trump?

What % will no longer vote for him due to his gross misconduct?
And what % of his voters are dead or bedridden from his Covid idiocy?

Where are they?

[Emile]

54. Bullshit

[Blues Heron]

58. Cable news will fry your brain - especially CNN

I advise you to cut the cable and dont believe their obvious BS propaganda.