Republicans Have an Internal Polling Problem

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

Republican Teddy Powell lost his bid for a seat in the Alabama House to Democratic candidate Marilyn Lands on Tuesday despite internal polling conducted in December which suggested he was on course for a comfortable victory.

Lands flipped the previously Republican district with 62.4 percent of the vote against 37.6 percent for Powell, a Madison City Council member. However, an internal poll conducted by Powell's campaign in December put the Republican on 47.7 percent of the vote against 36.8 percent for Lands.

Tuesday's defeat in Alabama is the latest in a string of disappointing election results for the Republicans, raising questions about their internal polling and that carried out by sympathetic conservative groups especially as the 2024 presidential election nears. Republicans widely expected to enjoy a "Red Wave" during the 2022 midterm elections, based in part on polling from conservative-leaning media, which then failed to materialize.

The special election in Alabama for State House District 10 was held after the previous incumbent, Republican David Cole, pleaded guilty to felony voter fraud leading to his resignation.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/republicans-have-an-internal-polling-problem/ar-BB1kCLZI

That's what happens when you're in love with the smell of your own farts.

[RandySF]

1. Legislative districts are hard to poll in a regular election.

A special election is even more difficult.

[FHRRK]

21. You are likely the overall race expert on DU

But since 2018 hasn’t there been a consistent overstatement of Repubs in polls.

Special elections I get, mfers to predict.

But overall I am seeing a 2 to 7 percent bias to Repubs with median in the 3 to mid 4 range, especially since Dobbs.

[marble falls]

2. Most polls are farts.

[TwilightZone]

3. That's not necessarily a polling problem. It's incompetence.

Polls from December would be meaningless. If they hadn't run one since December, they should have. A lot can change in four months.

[Sympthsical]

11. Yeah, that's a weird thing to base an article on

As if nothing happened or changed in four months.

And then they go on to repeat the 2022 polls were bad myth that just won't die.

I need to be a journalist. Just say whatever, and if it sounds kind of right when not read closely, hit that publish button!

[Cha]

18. Exactly. Things Changed Dramatically

since December.

Something to do with the Alabama Supreme Court!

Total incompetence if they hadn't' polled sine December.. really!

[W_HAMILTON]

22. Ergo, all polls now for the General Election are useless, amirite?

I look forward to you joining me in decrying their being posted anytime between now and, oh, four or five months from now?

[W_HAMILTON]

23. Also, what changed in the past four months? Thanks in advance!

[bucolic_frolic]

4. Republicans tell pollsters they will vote, and vote Republican

But they can't be bothered to show up? Lack of enthusiasm, or disgust at the party, or the MAGA Chief? I mean there's a time lag between things going badly, admitting it, admitting it to yourself, admitting it publicly, being frozen by it. Sour taste candidates.

[Think. Again.]

5. Yeah, polls are dumb.

[SWBTATTReg]

6. Rhetoric doesn't win elections w/ most voters. BS doesn't fly either.

People that know how to govern, how to communicate effectively, how to do basically anything in governing, instead of mouthing off constantly, not getting anything done other than mouthing off, deserve to lose their seats.

[lindysalsagal]

7. What? The GQP echo-chamber only sends good news up the food chain?

That's how it is in fascist, authoritarian regimes. Our founders knew that freedom of speech and the press were the foundation of self-government. Without it, governing is impossible. Only retaining your own power is.

[Emile]

8. Alabama wow!

[Qutzupalotl]

9. An issue like abortion access, especially when framed sympathetically,

can motivate voters who are otherwise unlikely to show up. I think once they drill down, they may find that these were previously unlikely voters who were recently galvanized, and found a champion.

Sounds like their polling needs at least some serious reweighting, since they aren't doing any rethinking.

[Johnny2X2X]

10. This is being downplayed

This is an absolute huge deal that would be a national story leading CNN, FOX, and MSNBC is a deep blue district that Biden had won had flipped this dramatically.

You're talking going from an easy Trump win in 2020 to a Dem blowout in 2024.

[Midnight Writer]

12. Just think of it as "alternative polling".

If you believe hard enough, it will happen. Just like in Never-Never Land, a place no one wants to go.

[Marthe48]

13. Don't know what the rwnj jobs are doing but I hope they keep doing it

GOTV Show them the door in 2024! Blue Wave!

[mercuryblues]

14. Women are pissed

and they aren't getting it yet.

[Quanto Magnus]

15. Given a lot of these polls....

seems to be biased...

I remember a lot of people calling out a NYT poll, because they surveyed more Republicans than any other group.

More of the same here.

[lees1975]

16. From what experts in the field, like Jen Psaki, and even Nate Silver, the key to an accurate poll is measuring

"voter enthusiasm." Figuring out whose supporters are more energized, and who will turn out in an election, is the key. And in an election that is otherwise close in terms of voter preference, that can cause huge swings one way or the other.

If you read between the lines of their own apologetics over the 2022 mid-term results, missing that one factor was the difference between the "red tsunami" most pollsters took for granted was coming, and the results that actually happened. I've read all of the after the fact, "we got it within the margin of error" crap that, just a week before the election, none of them were predicting. That was where those few who actually admitted they got it wrong, missed the boat. They had to guess at it, and their guess, heavily based more on "the party in power always loses big in the mid-terms" than it was on actual data they had showing numbers that indicated Democrats might benefit from a bigger turnout than expected.

In red states like Alabama, there are many more voters who don't turn out than there are in states where elections are closer. Democrats get much lower turnout when outcomes seem almost certain. They have the ability to double their turnout, as they have on occasion, to elect a Democrat statewide, such as when they elected Doug Jones to the senate. I've always thought that Democrats needed to target one or two red states, spend some money on some go-getter candidates and see what happens. I think they could win with Lucas Kunce in Missouri over Josh Hawley, and they can get Florida back. If they'd helped Cheri Beasley in NC in 2022, she'd be in the senate now.

[WarGamer]

17. Republicans have a laziness problem... turnout was 14%

And Democrats had better turnout because of motivated folks pissed about women's rights issues.

[liberalla]

19. WOW! ** Fourteen percent? ** OMG!

[WarGamer]

20. Lower than 14%... if you thinking GOP'ers

14% was the turnout for the whole Special Election but obviously more DEMS and GOP'ers.

[W_HAMILTON]

24. For all those that fret over the polls, remember: Republicans keep losing at the only polls that matter.

AKA the ballot box on election day!

[brooklynite]

25. I've said it before: 2022 polling DID NOT PREDICT A RED WAVE....

Polling said the races would be close, which they were. ANALYSIS predicted most of those close races would go to the Republicans, which was a reasonable assessment based on history.

[dutch777]

26. Hopeful. I know a few stalwart Republicans who from Trump on down aren't liking their voting options.

As a vet, I plead with people to just vote. People paid for that and all your rights in blood. Please, don't dishonor that. I always tell them to write themselves or someone they trust in if they can't stomach the party options. Deep down though, as long as they don't pull that lever for a Repug, because they stay home out of disgust or whatever, that is one less Repug vote we don't have to counter and exceed.