Could RFK Jr. Candidacy hurt Trump more?

[Pototan]

I pose this as a question. Conventional wisdom is that the RFK Jr. candidacy takes more votes from President Biden than from Adolf Trump. That's the way the current polls look, but I doubt that when the final vote comes in, RFK Jr. will be anywhere near 16 to 18 precent. History tells us that a third-party candidacy has its popularity wane as election day approaches. Maybe 3 to 5 percent total, is my guess.

And there is a chance that conspiracy theorists and vaccine deniers are more in the Trump camp. Some vaccine deniers are kinda angry at Trump for getting vaccinated and boo him when he touts his Administration's efforts to create the RNA vaccine to immunize the world against covid. Some of the MAGA cultists even believe some sort of conspiracy about JFK Jr. still being alive and being on a Trump ticket, or some sort of bullshit theory like that. Those "voters" may be more susceptible to a RFK Jr. candidacy than others and remain supporters of RFK Jr. until the end.

Democratic leaning voters, on the other hand, may support RFK Jr. on a more superficial basis. The Kennedy name may resonate without knowing the crackpot's positions on important issues. There's a chance (and I admit I don't know for sure) that a 5% RFK Jr. vote on election day may break slightly in Biden's favor. I sure hope so.

[Fiendish Thingy]

1. The data isn't crystal clear

A poll released today shows Biden ahead in a two way race, but Trump ahead when third party candidates are included.

[Pototan]

2. In my OP, I concede that RFK Jr. currently hurts Biden more...

...but that may result in some superficial (soft) Democratic leaning support due to name recognition. On the crackpot issues, RFK Jr. is closer to the MAGA cult positions. So, perhaps, as today's polling data support for him melts away, what RFK Jr. support remains, may erode Trump support more than Biden's.

[patphil]

3. Democrats who know the name, but not the man may vote for him, but

the more he speaks out in public, the more people will realize he may have the name, but not even a shadow of the greatness of the man.
By election day, I think he'll be taking 2 votes from Trump for every one he takes from Biden.

[Pototan]

11. My guess, too

Let's hope so.

[ALBliberal]

4. My republican right wing evangelical Christian

Nephew (anti covid vax) in Austin supports him. Fundraising for him. So there’ s that. I think that’s a former Trump vote.

[FakeNoose]

8. You've made a good point

(First of all, sorry about your nephew.)

Obviously RFK,Jr. has zero chance of being elected, so why would anybody waste their time raising money or campaigning for him? Your nephew is in for a rude awakening this November.

It's not Democrats, at least it's not the traditionally liberal Dems that are jumping behind Kennedy. Seems to me that the RFK,Jr. supporters are Repukes who realize that they HATE Chump, or it's disillusioned ChumpHumpers who won't admit they were wrong on 2020.

My point is, and I think it's your point also, that Chump is bleeding supporters who are just a little too smart to get taken in by Chump's BS. They aren't going to jump the fence and vote for Biden. Oh no! But somehow RFK,Jr. sounds like an acceptable alternative.

Besides these few former Chumpers who are moving over to RFK,Jr. there are a whole lot more who won't vote for Chump because they're done with him. They see what a loser he is, he can't win this year or ever again, and he probably should be in prison. These are Repukes who are too chicken-shit to admit it, but they won't vote for Chump. Either they will stay home in November, or they'll go to the polls for the down-ticket candidates and leave the top slot blank. These are people who say they're voting for Chump ... but when the time comes they won't pull the lever.

Therefore this year's polls are garbage. Nobody is telling the truth to the pollsters. Biden's got this AND we're going to flip the House and keep the Senate.

[ALBliberal]

9. He will definitely get some non covid vax people

and that’s on Trump and his disinformation campaign. So a mix of anti covid vax trump supporters that can’t stomach trumps lawlessness and dems that relate to the Kennedy name.

Biden needs to come at “jr” hard. As hard as Trump IMO.

[FakeNoose]

10. Well he's friends with the Kennedy clan, so I think he'll tread lightly

Biden won't want to embarrass the Kennedy family I'm sure. The Kennedys themselves are already putting out negative press releases against RFK,Jr. Biden doesn't need to worry, the Dems won't leave him.

[Pototan]

12. The Kennedy name means more in April

than it will in November, when voters focus in on the candidates more closely.

[Tree Lady]

15. This is our first pres election

After Covid will be interesting to see how much effect it had.

[themaguffin]

5. trump is concerned - that's why he had a tantrum today and called him a left radical or whatever

[NJCher]

6. I would think the crackpot vote

would tend to go trump or kennedy. There's really nothing "out there" about Joe.

[Tree Lady]

14. I don't think he's concerned

I think he is taunting our side.

[All Mixed Up]

7. There hasn't been a third party candidate who's polled as well as RFK since Perot in 1992.

So, we can't really use conventional wisdom when it comes to previous third party challengers.

In 2016, Johnson, who generally polled the highest of the third party candidates, only polled above 10% a handful of times in 2016.

The highest I can find him hitting the polls was 13% (a few times - and as late as September (oddly, a Quinnipiac poll where Hillary led Trump 41-39, with Johnson at 13%).

In terms of averages, the highest Johnson ever averaged was 9.2% on Sept. 13, 2016.

You're right his numbers slowly receded from that point and he ended at an average of 4.7 and "only" received 3.3 points nationally.

But Kennedy is definitely polling better than Johnson on average. Right now, he's averaging 10 points nationally. Close to what Johnson averaged in September for a few days (but that was very brief - like ten days later he was at 7% on average).

Since announcing his third party run, Kennedy has polled under 10% in just nine polls (out of 31).

I do think he's probably at his highwater mark. But even if he out-polls Johnson in 2016 by three-points in the end, that will still be a lot and the most a third party candidate has received since Perot in 1996. In that scenario, I see no reason to believe he helps Biden.

Now if Kennedy starts peeling off MORE Trump supporters over the next few months, that's different. But right now? I absolutely think he's hurting Biden.

[Tree Lady]

13. All I know is he did a video

During state of nation speech. Put on tik tok and got 12 million views plus more on YouTube and other sites.

I think it's anti vax on both sides. And young who think he is still involved in the environment.

I think he hurts us more.

[All Mixed Up]

16. I've read comments from some who flat-out say he's not anti-vax

And that he's just wanting more research done.

Then others who say they don't have to agree on everything.

Honestly, I think the anti-vax thing is a dud with the left. I don't think a lot of them care.

What we should hammer home is his position on Israel. I think he's even more hawkish toward Israel than Biden is.

[Takket]

17. i think we'll find out as time goes on......

Bannon egged on people to support kennedy because he felt kennedy would draw off biden voters but Bannon's own praise made some maga fall in love with him, and kennedy's own belief in stupid things likewise attracts more stupid people (i.e. maga) to him

i think ultimately kennedy knows he can't win but if he's hurting drumpf i think he will drop out, and endorse drumpf, if he's hurting biden he'll stay in. it is really about drumpf in my own opinion.

[Pototan]

18. We may not know who he hurts more

until within 30 days of General Election. By then, it's too late.