I wonder how many on left know what RFK jr position is on Israel?

[JohnSJ]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/2024-dark-horse-rfk-jr-questions-gaza-ceasefire-defends-israeli-offensive/amp/

“ LOS ANGELES, California (Reuters)- – Independent US presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. offered staunch support for Israel in a Reuters interview, calling it a “moral nation” that was justly responding to Hamas provocations with its attacks on Gaza and questioning the need for a six-week ceasefire backed by President Joe Biden.

Biden has also been a vocal defender of Israel since the October 7 attack by Hamas, but he has recently pressured the country to stem the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and accelerate a six-week ceasefire for hostage releases and aid delivery.”

“ Asked if he supported a temporary ceasefire in Gaza, Kennedy told Reuters: “I don’t even know what that means right now.”

Kennedy said that each previous ceasefire “has been used by Hamas to rearm, to rebuild and then launch another surprise attack. So what would be different this time?” he said.”

[Think. Again.]

1. Doesn't matter, the choice is between Biden or trump.

[All Mixed Up]

4. Except it's not.

In fact, I'd wager right now Biden's biggest opponent is RFK Jr. and not Trump. The reality is that Biden isn't really losing support to Trump. He absolutely is losing it to RFK Jr. right now, though.

[LiberalFighter]

7. In all likelihood those that plan to vote for him did not vote for Biden in 2020.

There is always a group that will vote for someone else that doesn't have the numbers.

[All Mixed Up]

8. I disagree completely.

And this really ignores what happened between 2016 and 2020.

Biden's biggest gains came from voters who voted Johnson/Stein in 2016 (or didn't plain vote) and then turned around and voted Biden in 2020. In fact, he only won because those voters decided in 2020 that they wouldn't vote third party.

Of those who voted for someone else in 2016 (other than Clinton/Trump), Biden won 60%. Of those who did not vote in 2016, Biden won 58%.

These are by definition fickle voters. Biden was able to win 'em over in 2020 but they've drifted away from him in 2024. It's why, when third party candidates are added, Biden goes from trailing Trump by just 1 point nationally in a head-to-head with just those two, to trailing him by nearly three-points.

It's not a significant difference but remember, in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states Hillary lost, Biden only did:

2.37 points better in Wisconsin.

3.52 points better in Michigan.

2.42 points better in Pennsylvania.

Outside Michigan, where he saw his biggest increase in those Blue Wall states, Biden improved essentially two-points on Hillary's total.

Most, if not all, that gain was made by not winning over Trump supporters - but winning over those who voted third party in 2016.

In Wisconsin, Biden won 56% of those who voted for someone else in 2016.

He only won 6% of Trump 2016 voters - but that was negated by the fact Trump won 4% of Hillary 2016 voters.

Biden's biggest challenge, and biggest risk, is not bleeding support to third party candidates.

To put it another way: Trump actually improved his totals in those three states between 2016 and 2020. He won a larger share of the vote in all those states. The only reason it was not enough is because the third party vote went from 5% in Michigan in 2016 to 1.6% in 2020. It went from 6% in Wisconsin in 2016 to 2% in 2020. And it went from 5% in Pennsylvania in 2016 to 1.4% in 2020.

That's the election in all three states right there.

He's going to have to win back those 2016 third party voters who supported him in 2020. Polls say he's not doing it right now.

[Think. Again.]

9. It's ridiculous to think that there will be anyone even close to the top of the ballot...

...other than Biden and trump.

Yes, there are a lot of people who won't vote for ethier one, but the only contest is between those two.

If anyone wants to actually participate in this election, they will be voting FOR either Biden or trump.

[All Mixed Up]

11. It's not ridiculous at all.

Did you just bury your head in the sand throughout the 2016 election?

If Biden loses just one-point off his 2020 total in a handful of states, HE LOSES. This isn't hard to grasp and maybe you need to look at your position and think again.

All it takes is for just one-percent of Biden's 2020 support to vote third party and Donald Trump wins in November without even improving his totals from 2020. Trump can literally stay at the same support he saw in 2020 and win if Biden just loses one-percent of his 2020 support to third parties in just three states.

If that happens, Biden loses:

Georgia (a state he only won by 0.24% in 2020)
Arizona (a state he only won by 0.31% in 2020)
Wisconsin (a state he only won by 0.63% in 2020)

Without those three states, Biden doesn't win the electoral college unless he flips a Trump-won state from 2020.

In those three states, Biden's margin of victory COMBINED was roughly 43,000.

You don't think 43,000 votes can't be lost to someone like RFK Jr?

That might be the most ridiculous comment I've read on this forum.

[DLCWIdem]

19. We certainly have to consider this

But if Biden wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin and Nebraska's 1 district then he wins. Yes I am worried and we should be worried but there is more items to analyze.
1. In which states is RFK actually on the ballots. 2. In which states are voters more likely to go to RFK. 3. I think in this case RFK may take more from Trump. He may take the anti-vaccers. 4. Trumps base is shrinking he is not adding any. When 70% of Haley voters (these are actual exit polls from people that have voted in the primary) say they won't vote for Trump then that is something that has to be analyzed. Finally in these primaries RFK is getting maybe 2%? The uncommitted vote has actually gotten more votes and I would think we need to concentrate on that. Btw, does anybody know in which states RFK is on the ballot?

[All Mixed Up]

21. I think your #1 point will be key...

Tho he's been rumored that he might go out for the Libertarian nomination and if he gets that, he'll gain access to every state.

[H2O Man]

31. I think that

a lot of people's dislike of who Robert is prevents them from understanding that a heck of a lot of young people support his campaign. And fool themselves into thinking that they "didn't vote for Biden in 2020, anyhow." Such are attempted shortcuts to rational thinking.

I support President Biden. At the same time, I've enjoyed a long friendship with Robert. He can't win, of course, but can get a significant number of votes. Hence, I am convinced that one of the things that can hurt us at the polls is the way too many Democrats insult those young voters. By fall, when it is clearer that the contest is between President Biden and the defendant, we will need to convince them that it is important that they vote for Joe.

[DLCWIdem]

34. Well if your a progressive young person

Usually the young progressives are very engaged with the issue of the war between Palestinians and Isreal. When these young voters become more aware of his views on Palestinians. He supports Netanyahu and his war and he also has called Palestinians "pampered". They may be overlooking his views on vaccines but I don't see them ignoring that.

[All Mixed Up]

35. Absolutely agree.

I also think people assume his anti-vax stance will turn off younger voters. But I've seen enough commenting online where they either flat-out deny he's one (they claim he just wants more research done) or that they don't expect to agree with a candidate on every single issue.

Kennedy is a real threat. I'd wager he's a real threat to both campaigns. But right now, I think he's a bigger threat to Biden because a lot of his support is likely younger voters. It's why I said in this thread that maybe Biden's team needs to start hitting Kennedy on his Israeli position because he's definitely more hawkish than Biden there.

Biden is going to win the younger vote. I don't doubt that. But this election could be determined by whether he wins it by 24 points or 14 points.

[DLCWIdem]

36. Young left voters

They are disaffected with Biden because of Isreal but I don't think they really know RFK positions. He just had an interview where he spouted off that Palestinians were "pampered". Bottom line I think young progressives may be surprised by RFK jr positions. They latched onto him because of his environmentalism, but I don't think they really know what his policy positions are. For example, put simply hid idea is to let the market sort it out, but do you think these your people will be content with that. I mean wouldn't they push for more right now rather than sitting around and waiting. IMO, young progressives are looking at what they think he is rather than what he is.

[DLCWIdem]

10. I disagree.

In fact, I argue and have argued previosly that RFK JR would take more support from Trump than from Biden. 1. RFK JR is an anti-vaxxer who has stated that the Covid vaccine has targeted certain ethnic groups. He has also come out against small pox vaccines. Being that most MAGATS ate anti-vaxxers themselves RFK would appeal to them more than Dems, particularly because Trump has been chomping at the bit to take credit for the vaccine.
2. RFK JR may have had more appeal for those younger progressives until they found out about his other views. They find out His other views don't aline with thier progressive values in other areas such as calling Palestinians "pampered" and his support for Netanyahu. It isn't just what he said about the war but his whole attitude and calling Palestinians " pampered" is simply crazy and alone with his other crazy views.
3. The only thing he has going for him is his KENNEDY name which is not going to sway Bidens coalition particularly since the whole KENNEDY family is disowning him.

[All Mixed Up]

13. There is no proof of this.

In fact, most polling suggests the exact opposite. When RFK's name is included, Trump improves his standing,

[DLCWIdem]

14. Which polls?

I remember a poll from 2 weeks ago right after Trump tried to take credit for the vaccine right after the SOTU address. Although I really don't trust polls this far out. If your talking about that NYT/SIENNA poll that oversampled rural areas.

[All Mixed Up]

15. I'm talking about most polls.

Not just one or two.

Trump's average lead when it's just a head-to-head match-up with Biden is just one-point.

When RFK is included, his lead, on average, jumps to 2.4 points nationally.

Even Quinnipiac, which has been pretty favorable to Biden, has Biden going from +3 to down 1 when Kennedy is included.

That's their most recent poll.

[womanofthehills]

17. Here are all the polls averaged - with & without independents

Under each individual state, click on “all national polls” (in red)

two sets of polls will come up - first Trump & Biden. Then scroll down beyond that poll to see the same poll with Independent s included.


https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/

[Cha]

32. Fuck 3rd Party RF KJr. Antivax Asshole.

[lees1975]

22. RFK's support comes mostly from disaffected Trumpies who are having doubts about the orange buffoon.

Not from Biden supporters. But he seems to gather less and less support at all as time passes.

[All Mixed Up]

24. There's zero evidence of this.

In fact, the evidence points to the opposite being true: in head-to-head polling, Biden consistently polls closer to Trump than when Kennedy is added.

Even Quinnipiac's latest poll, which has generally been favorable to Biden, has Biden +3 head-to-head with Trump but trailing by one when Kennedy is added.

A four-point swing suggests Trump is benefiting from Kennedy being in the race.

[Retrograde]

12. Remember 2016?

It only takes a handful of voters in some key states - Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia among others - to swing all of those states' electoral votes from Biden to the Orange One. It happened in 2016, it almost happened in 2020, and it can happen in 2024. It's bad enough that Jill Stein is on the ballot in some states: Kennedy has name recognition, and that counts for a lot among low-information voters.

[All Mixed Up]

2. I said in another post they need to drop the anti-vax stuff and focus on this.

Just keep hammering home is position on Israel.

[Ferrets are Cool]

3. This liberal doesn't care what his stance is.

[Think. Again.]

16. Neither does this one.

[totodeinhere]

5. Is he not right about this?

"Kennedy said that each previous ceasefire “has been used by Hamas to rearm, to rebuild and then launch another surprise attack. So what would be different this time?” he said.”

When Hamas attacked on 10/7 there was supposed to be a formal cease fire in place at that time. But that didn't stop Hamas from attacking anyway. Why would we expect it to be any different this time if another cease fire takes place?

[JohnSJ]

20. The point I am making is about their selective outrage,

[totodeinhere]

25. Selective outrage has been practiced by both sides in this conflict

for a long time.

[Sky Jewels]

6. RFK loves him some fascist autocrats like

Netanyahu, Putin and Trump.

[TheKentuckian]

18. The Hamas superfriends and lovers of theocrats and autocrats

don't care.

They don't give a flying fuck about Palestinians.

They hate America, Israel, Jews, black folks (we know who's next in line after the Jews), the Democratic party, Western Civilization, and democracy.

[lees1975]

23. I wonder who really knows what RFK's position is on anything.

He just spouts off the top of his head, mostly. And much of that is incoherent babble.

He's showed up on the radar screen as some kind of alternative, pushed by media. He has nothing in common with Democrats, or the vast majority of independents. If you asked one of his supporters, if you could actually find one, what his position is on Israel and Gaza, would they even know? I doubt it.

And now that it has come down to knowing who the two party nominees will be, and the campaign is moving forward, his support is evaporating. He's made a splash with his daddy's name, and now that he's had to come out, actually make appearances and talk to increase his support, people are saying, "Oh, wonder what that was all about?" And it will turn out to be about nothing. If he's at a hundreth of a percent by convention season, I'll be surprised.

[RandySF]

26. I don't think his voters will come from the left.

[Traildogbob]

29. Watched some interviews

Last night on the Daily Show with Jordon Klepper.
Small sample I know and probably selected because they looked to be stupid. But they ALL were adamant about being anti vax. Their main voting point. That could include far left AND Trump disenfranchised. But the crowds at this rally was small. So Far.
I do worry a whole lot about lose of votes. Even small amounts.
Hopefully when he gets the full attacks from both parties lots will be exposed. Especially that his Billionaire VP pick committed adultery with Elon and had to divorce her Google sugar day.
That may be a positive for the lost trump supporters.
They seem to love that in Their God candidates.
I do worry about a spoiler, and the voter suppression is in steroids. And we’ll get worse.
Oh! And they absolutely exhibited MAGA level stupidity. And we’re all proud conspiracist.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

33. Anecdotal story...

My evangelical cousin and her family all have gone from MAGAT to RFK. I wouldn’t be surprised if he pulled never-Trumpers.

[Takket]

27. Don't know. Don't care

[Runningdawg]

28. I don't care. Even if I agreed with him on that position, he's dead wrong about everything else.

[RockRaven]

30. I don't care what his position is on Israel because I will never vote for him

under any reasonably plausible circumstance.