Trump cuts into Biden's lead among young people, poll finds

[brooklynite]

Politico

Biden leads Trump, 45 percent to 37 percent, among people ages 18 to 29 in a Harvard Youth Poll released Thursday, with 16 percent undecided. That 8 percentage point margin is much smaller than at this point in the 2020 election. At that time, Biden was leading Trump by 23 percentage points among young people.

Biden’s margins widen when the pool is restricted to registered and likely voters. But, still, his 19-point lead over Trump among the voters under 30 who are considered likely to turn out is significantly smaller than his 30-point advantage this time four years ago.

Biden holds wide leads among likely voters who are non-white and women — up by 43 points and 33 points over Trump, respectively. He trounces Trump among the higher-educated set, leading the presumptive Republican nominee by 47 points among likely voters who are college graduates and 23 points among college students.

But Biden’s margins are far slimmer — or nonexistent — among other key demographics. He’s just 6 percentage points ahead of Trump among likely voters who are young men, according to the poll, and just 3 points ahead among white voters. When it comes to young people without college degrees, Biden and Trump are in a dead heat.

[Just_Vote_Dem]

1. But I just saw a poll posted here that Biden was leading with young voters

?

[gab13by13]

2. I swear he just does this to upset me.

I can predict what polls are going to be before they come out.

[Just_Vote_Dem]

3. Hang in there gab!

[BannonsLiver]

58. It was posted to agitate.

Last edited Fri Apr 19, 2024, 01:30 PM - Edit history (1)

[brooklynite]

63. Well, you got me...

It’s true. Despite my 45 years of volunteering for Democratic candidates and spending upwards of a half million dollars on Democratic campaigns, what really gives me joy is “agitating” people on a political blog by posting polling data they don’t like.

Can you ever forgive me?

[BannonsLiver]

64. No.

[edisdead]

69. You have strange history

I will say that.

[Prairie Gates]

75. When the sarcasm rings true...

[brooklynite]

4. Nobody disputes that Biden will win a substantial majority of young voters...

...the question is how many can Trump/3rd Parties peel away.

[Celerity]

71. And how many do not vote. I can tell you, as a young voter, that's a problem atm with too many other young voters I know

[Fiendish Thingy]

9. It was the exact same poll, just with a different headline yesterday. Nt

[Rebl2]

35. Exactly

You just can’t trust polls. Also it was a Harvard youth poll and would guess it asked more conservative people.

[former9thward]

86. Harvard is conservative?

[Polly Hennessey]

51. Some prefer the negative. If true, then the "young"

people deserve the future they will have under tRumpianism.

[Celerity]

70. It is the same poll, those other OPs left out the not so good news

When there is no voter screen (i.e., all young adults 18-29), the race narrows to single digits, 45% for President Biden, 37% for former President Trump, with 16 percent undecided.

That number is worrisome as he needs to be at or above 60%.

Hillary Clinton and John Kerry only came in around 55% for the 18-29s, and they lost.

Also, despite some bad faith denialists' attempts to claim otherwise (including one directly calling me a liar, ffs), there most certainly IS a large gender gap with young voters (and this is far from the only poll that shows it, most all of them do):

President Biden's lead among young men is six points; among young women his lead is 33 points

Finally, my worry about the younger parts of Gen Z trending less and less Dem compared to the very oldest Gen Zers and the last years of the youngest Millennials looks to be possibly getting worse and is for sure if this poll is accurate):

President Biden's lead among 18-24 year-olds is 14 points, and among 25-29 year-olds it is 26 points

I first really noticed this trend in 2022, when youngest part part of the Zillennial (Zillennials are those born 1992/3 to 1998, I was born late 1996) cohort plus a tiny 10 month sliver of the very oldest Gen Zers voted Democratic around 7 points net HIGHER than did the vast part of Gen Z (all but the oldest 10 months of it):

2022 Exit polls

That 7 point net gap has now almost doubled, IF this poll is accurate. I have warned for years that Gen Z will likely NOT be a linear progression in terms of liberal/progressive voting patterns, especially in regards to partisan Democratic Party allegiance.

I know thousands of them, hell, if I had been born 2 and half months later I would BE ONE. This board, on balance, doesn't deeply understand them. Hell, the board doesn't deeply understand us younger Millennials all that well. There also are far too many deep currents of hostility towards us younger folk in general here, currents from a minority, smaller group, but a group that is very vocal and persistent.

IF Biden loses and if it can be shown 40yos and under underperformed (funny thing that.... some of the worst youth baiters here come from self-identified age, gender, and racial cohorts who are massively pro MAGAt, but either never comment on that fact or get argy bargy of you bring it up with them) it is going to be hell here for us. I am definitely not go to stick around if I am used as a proxy target for my age cohort.

[yardwork]

95. Distilling this down to your point, you HAVE a point.

I have a later-in-life stepson who is Gen Z. He's a sample size of one, but still.

He knows virtually nothing. Period. He doesn't read or watch news. He literally didn't know that the bridge collapsed, etc. He has no idea that Trump is on trial or for what. He didn't do much work in high school so he's read very little history or literature. No way could he pass a basic citizenship test. His high school years were disrupted by COVID in profound ways. He aspires to have a technical job and sees no value in art, history, literature, travel (other than trips to amusement parks, skiing, other commercial, canned experiences.)

He has no idea what "research" is, no clue about the rigor required. To him, research is scanning google results and seeking confirmation bias.

Via TikTok, YouTube, and his gaming sites he is aware of the Israeli-Hamas conflict and has been told that Israel is at fault. He's vaguely annoyed with Biden but can't articulate why.

He's a Democrat because that's how he was raised. Literally, he is told to be a Democrat. He votes straight party Democratic ticket. Unless something changes drastically, he's likely to continue.

Multiple him by millions, at least half of whom are raised in Republican households. Of the half raised by Democrats, some are disaffected tankies who hope for a Glorious Revolution. Since many of those Zoomers aren't going to bother finding out much on their own, they are going to vote based on how their parents and online influences tell them to vote.

Yes, we have a big problem.

[Polybius]

97. He still is

From the very first sentence:

Biden leads Trump, 45 percent to 37 percent, among people ages 18 to 29 in a Harvard Youth Poll released Thursday, with 16 percent undecided.

[Omnipresent]

5. I expect alot of whinny speakers at the repugnant convention.

That will give Biden at least a 5 point lead in the polls.

[gab13by13]

6. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind

that President Biden will win by an overwhelming margin, in a fair election. This election isn't going to be fair so that is why we must overwhelm them at the ballot box.

I just double checked to make sure my Pa. absentee ballot was received. If I made a mistake on the ballot it will get tossed this year.

[hlthe2b]

7. Notice how "Trump" always comes first in these headlines? How subliminal ("Trump cuts into...)

Not Biden continues to lead Trump in youth vote, but margins diminished... Or anything that might reflect the truth while not making TRUMP the lede. Oh, yeah, Politico.

Not biased at all... Keep telling me that.

[brooklynite]

12. And this insidious plot is going to influence.....who?

[hlthe2b]

14. ...

Everyone else here knows.

[brooklynite]

17. The ordinary politically -unengaged voters who take the time to read POLITICO?

And apparently aren't as insightful as you are at seeing "subliminal;" messaging?

[hlthe2b]

19. Speak for yourself. Most of DU knows what i am saying.

Here, I'll even help you pull out of the sand... I'll even teach you what "subliminal" means.

[brooklynite]

20. I don't tend to subscribe to DU orthodoxy. You're welcome to interpret as you wish.

[hlthe2b]

21. "I don't tend to subscribe to DU orthodoxy. "

[brooklynite]

22. With all the real-world candidates and elected officials I engage with, I'm never lonely.

[hlthe2b]

24. That is so good, Chris. So really really really really really really good.

[BannonsLiver]

61. That's because they want money.

Last edited Fri Apr 19, 2024, 02:58 PM - Edit history (2)

These “friendships” are entirely transactional. If there was no money they would not exist.

[betsuni]

89. Dan Pfeiffer has a story about trying to avoid mixing and mingling with donors:

"Politics is one of those endeavors where everyone thinks they are qualified to have an opinion. And the people successful enough to write checks big enough to attend these events are not the sort of people who experience self-doubt. ... Eventually, as I stood in a corner hoping the server with the pigs in a blanket would come by, someone would invariably wander over to me and ask, 'Are you on the White House staff?' 'I am.' 'What do you do?' 'I'm President Obama's communications director.' 'Oh good. I was hoping to run into you. I have some thoughts.' And we're off to the races.

"The subtext of most of these conversations was that great slogans make great presidents. Much of Progressive Twitter is filled with lamentations about some failure or missed messaging opportunity. There was a running joke in the Obama White House that you needed a master's in economic policy to discuss economic policy and a doctorate in public health to offer health care ideas, but everyone believed that reading the newspapers made them qualified to opine on messaging strategy."

[BannonsLiver]

94. lol have to wonder if Dan ever ran across our special friend.

[Demsrule86]

43. you do know that save for Youngkin early in Bidens term Trump and the Republicans have

won nothing...not even the midterm...the red wave (which I think you thought was coming) turned into the red fizzle...Roe Roe your vote. Many have failed to consider women and as Biden has warned, we are Trump's worst nightmare especially younger women. None of the polls reflect Roe, they should.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

46. "whom"

https://www.reddit.com/r/funny/comments/nflw78/grammar_nazi/

[DFW]

8. This far out, it's barely worthy of observation, hardly worthy of a serious analysis

The people susceptible to the lure of carrying signs screaming "Genocide Joe" will either not vote, or else they will ultimately vote Biden if they care about the ones they claim to care about. The ones who might vote Trump or Bobby, Jr. are not the ones carrying those signs. I suspect they are the ones who paid for them.

[Fiendish Thingy]

10. No link to the poll's methodology? Nt

[brooklynite]

11. Here...

https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/47th-edition-spring-2024

[Fiendish Thingy]

30. Thanks. Not very transparent methodology

This poll of 2,010 18-to-29-year-olds was organized with undergraduate students from the Harvard Public Opinion Project (HPOP) and supervised by John Della Volpe, Director of Polling. Data were collected by Ipsos Public Affairs using the KnowledgePanel. KnowledgePanel provides probability-based samples with an "organic" representation of the study population for measurement of public opinions, attitudes, and behaviors. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish between March 14 and 21, 2024. The target population for this survey is U.S. residents between the ages of 18 and 29. Data are weighted to reflect population estimates based on age, race/Hispanic ethnicity, education, household income, census region by metropolitan area, and primary language within Hispanics. The margin of error for the total sample is +/- 3.02%.

No mention of the smaller sample size or higher MOE for registered or likely voters, except to note that there 1,051 likely voters, about half the total sample. No specific numbers on gender, although a proportional representation would imply about 500 each of male and female respondents, with yet an even higher MOE for each gender group. Note that “likely voters” are typically identified by voting history, so the millions of voters who turned 18 since 2020 or 2022 would be excluded from this sample.

Results among all likely voters between 18-29 shows support for Biden at 56%, Trump 37%, undecided 5%. By comparison, the same poll claims support at the same point in 2020 was split 60% Biden, 30% Trump (with an implied 10% other/undecided).

Without transparency on subgroup MOE, it is hard to have much confidence in this individual poll; if the results are taken as part of the identified trends in dozens of recent polls, perhaps it is safe to conclude the following:

Biden still has significant support among young voters
There is an identifiable risk that third party candidates could peel off enough votes to give Trump an Electoral College victory.

That’s about it.

[Demsrule86]

41. If you go to the first link...you see this was compilation of a number of polls Harvard wasn't

even mentioned. I would fail if I turned something like this into a statistics class.

[PennRalphie]

13. Young people in PA

Will go for Biden by an enormous margin. Reproductive rights, eliminating student loans and the overall great economy we have here will be enough. Then, we have a fantastic Governor, who will run for President one day. Shapiro will be a great surrogate for Biden here. I really do believe Biden will win PA by a huge margin.

Polls this early are for amusement only.

[DemocratInPa]

65. Not so sure about this right now..

Israel/Gaza weren't happening in 2020, and TikTok ban will hurt..

Penn State has a lot of kids who use TikTok, in fact we went to an alumni event last year and they said it was the #1 platform on campus, followed by Instagram.

[PennRalphie]

78. Yes TikTok is popular

But reproductive rights will be more important than all of that. Plus student loans forgiven and the great economy.

[Cha]

80. Thank you.. we don't Need any

Depressing of the Vote for Pres Biden.

[Cha]

79. Pres Biden is Gong To WIN.. We Don't Need

anyone Depressing the Vote.

We Need All Hands on Deck.. got it.

The Kids Will Go For Pres Biden!! do they want Fucking trump for.

[Pretty Fly]

15. Biden didn't win the under 30 vote by 30 points in 2020, tho.

Biden’s margins widen when the pool is restricted to registered and likely voters. But, still, his 19-point lead over Trump among the voters under 30 who are considered likely to turn out is significantly smaller than his 30-point advantage this time four years ago.

What a very unusual framing to compare this to what I assume is a poll from 2020 and not the actual results.

In 2020, Biden won the under 30 vote 60-36 according to exit polls.

Now I'm not great at math, and maybe the poster who posted this article can correct me, but 60 minus 36 is 24. And again, I know my math can be iffy sometimes but I'm pretty sure 24 is decently less than 30.

In fact, 19 is closer to 24 than 30.

So, Biden, according to this poll, which has a MOE I assume, is only doing five-points worse in the margins than four yeara ago.

That's a big difference than the way the poll is presented in the link.

Almost an agenda-driving difference.

Hm.

[Demsrule86]

39. Did you look at the massaging of Data...almost seems like they want to prove and already

existing belief...This poll is two weeks old...you have to dig to find that interesting fact. After looking a Steve Shepard (author) tweets, he leans right and was quite complimentary RFK...hmmm

[muriel_volestrangler]

44. The worrying thing is that this might indicate the youth vote is even closer

Yes, the 30 point lead was in their 2020 poll - "this time four years ago". But if that ended up as a 24 point lead in the election, then a 19 point lead now looks even worse.

So the thing to do is remind young people (and everyone else) what a piece of scum Trump is. Rapist, authoritarian who has taken away women's rights, traitor, racist, conman ... there's a lot to say to people about him.

[Pretty Fly]

53. Not really.

It's still just a poll with a MOE and that alone means that it doesn't show much of anything.

The whole article reads like it's a readout from the Trump campaign.

[muriel_volestrangler]

54. I think you've never heard a Trumpist, if you think that's how they talk. (nt)

[Pretty Fly]

55. Okay.

[uponit7771]

16. ***CLICK BAIT POLL*** Has 3.7 moe with 1200 sample ...

[brooklynite]

18. Harvard University is pushing "clickbait". Good to know.

[Demsrule86]

47. Where is the Harvard poll? Unless it was a compilation of other polls, it doesn't exist in the article-

no details at all.

[uponit7771]

72. The poll wasn't from Harvard

[brooklynite]

74. "Harvard Youth Poll: Spring 2004"

A national poll released today by the Institute of Politics (IOP) at Harvard Kennedy School indicates that among 18-to-29-year-olds nationwide, more than half of young Americans say they will definitely be voting in the Presidential election this Fall. But findings show that among those likely voters, levels of support varied significantly among different subgroups.

...snip...

The Spring 2024 Harvard Youth Poll surveyed 2,010 young Americans between 18- and 29 years old nationwide, and was conducted between March 14-21, 2024.

"Young people today have clear concerns about where our country is headed," said IOP Director Setti Warren. "From worries about the economy, foreign policy, immigration, and climate, young people across the country are paying attention and are increasingly prepared to make their voices heard at the ballot box this November."

...snip...

If the presidential election were held today, President Biden would outperform former President Trump among both registered (50% Biden, 37% Trump) and likely young voters under 30 (56% Biden, 37% Trump). When there is no voter screen (i.e., all young adults 18-29), the race narrows to single digits, 45% for President Biden, 37% for former President Trump, with 16 percent undecided.

https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/47th-edition-spring-2024

As the POLITICO article points out, Biden had a larger margin among young voters at this time in 2020.

[Celerity]

77. yes it was

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/18/poll-trump-cuts-into-bidens-lead-among-young-people-00152970

https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/47th-edition-spring-2024

[Demsrule86]

85. Thank you Celerity! I would like to point out some serious errors in this poll.

""

More men than women...

"

"

Twice as many GOP as Dems, the exact same number of independents as Dems. Not a good sample. Equal numbers of registered and likely voters. It is bullshit.

Did you read the method...more

'This poll of 2,010 18-to-29-year-olds was organized with undergraduate students from the Harvard Public Opinion Project (HPOP) and supervised by John Della Volpe, Director of Polling. Data were collected by Ipsos Public Affairs using the KnowledgePanel. KnowledgePanel provides probability-based samples with an "organic" representation of the study population for measurement of public opinions, attitudes, and behaviors. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish between March 14 and 21, 2024. The target population for this survey is U.S. residents between the ages of 18 and 29. Data are weighted to reflect population estimates based on age, race/Hispanic ethnicity, education, household income, census region by metropolitan area, and primary language within Hispanics. The margin of error for the total sample is +/- 3.02%.'

[muriel_volestrangler]

88. That screenshot you took is not the numbers of people they asked; that's the results for one question

which was "do you agree with 'woman are too promiscuous these days'?"

So it's saying that in the age group, 28% of men agreed, 21% of women strongly or somewhat agreed (not in your screenshot, but just above, the overall figure is 24%), 23% of current college students agreed, and so on. So 46% of those who identify as Republicans agreed with it, 14% of Democrats, and 23% of independents.

If you want to see the total numbers of how they identify politically, look at the topline poll (link top left at the other link).

https://iop.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/2024-04/240415_Harvard_IOP_Spring_2024_Topline_Final.pdf

Of the whole age group:

q.7:
19% strong Democrat
19% Not a very strong Democrat
10% independent leans Democrat
22% independent does not lean to either part
6% independent leans Republican
11% Not a very strong Republican
12% Strong Republican

q.3: 75% are registered to vote (and 4% don't know if they are)

q.10:
53% definitely will be voting for president in 2024
13% probably will
13% say it's 50-50 if they will
10% probably won't
11% definitely won't

[uponit7771]

91. It's still a above 2 moe and poll mentioned inside the article wasn't from Harvard

[LenaBaby61]

76. MOE is Too high amongst other oddities probably contained within this 'poll.'....

[former9thward]

87. 1200 sample is very good statistically.

National polls shoot for 1100 to 1400.

[brooklynite]

23. Just had a call with Simon Rosenberg. He calls the Harvard Youth Poll the "gold standard" for understanding young voters

[Demsrule86]

48. Did he? Really, Simon Rosenberg thinks we will win and he put polls on the Hopium site

yesterday. I think you are mistaken...got a link. I have not seen one.

[brooklynite]

56. I don't have a link to a phone call (he was a guest of my political group). And no, I wasn't mistaken.

You realize that the poll DOESN'T say Biden will lose the youth vote or even won't get a large share, right? The issue is: is there any erosion and how does that impact States where our margin is likely to be small?

nb: if you bothered to actually read the poll (I provided the link) it goes into great detail about many political aspects of young voters, not just their Presidential choice. He was speaking about how the Israel/Gaza war influences their decisions.

[BannonsLiver]

59. Did he happen to have a good croquette recipe?

I’ve got an event this weekend. Also, does Simon think the Mets could be for real this year?

[betsuni]

90. Shrimp or crab croquettes are really the best, but I guess that would be elitist.

Better stick with potatoes. One of the best things I've ever tasted was potato and blue cheese croquettes.

[BannonsLiver]

93. Sounds delicious!

[Emile]

25. Why would you post this for?

[Demsrule86]

34. I wondered why also...

[muriel_volestrangler]

40. Perhaps to encourage DUers to remind the young people they know that Trump is a rapist?

You know, the idea is to encourage everyone to vote for Biden, and other Democrats. When that job is incomplete, it's worth knowing if there's a persuadable demographic. You might be wasting your breath trying to convince a 50 year old white male evangelical to think about what a bastard Trump is, but if there's a demographic drifting away from Dems because the media is not doing a good enough job of reminding the world that Trump is a rapist (and conman, traitor etc.), then Dems have to give them reasons to reject Trump and his cult.

[Chakaconcarne]

27. I'm not even sure why we give these polls the time of day..

[Doodley]

28. Most young people aren't paying attention, IMO. All many hear is the Trump talking points and haven't a clue what Biden

has done.

[Demsrule86]

33. This poll sampled nothing they most used Surveys and even landlines...

It was merely used (bits and pieces) to support the premise of the article.

[Cuthbert Allgood]

50. So if they aren't paying attention, how do they listen to Trump.

I mean, pick your side.

[Doodley]

66. They hear what they hear and see what they see at a superficial level. Trump with his bluster is heard the loudest.

[RainCaster]

29. Trump cuts into Biden's lead Russian polls announce

I'm not believing this bs for a second.

[Demsrule86]

32. You shouldn't. It is total bullshit...sample very small, landlines and surveys used...and

then the data is 'massage' IE adjusted to prove their already held opinion. I looked at the internals of all the polls used for the article. One of them was a Fox poll. They were all bullshit. The infamous Sienna Poll was one of them.

[brooklynite]

36. Simon Rosenberg disagrees with you

[BannonsLiver]

62. That and $6 will get you a cup of coffee.

[Demsrule86]

31. Two words...absolute bullshit. Where is the link to the Harvard poll...I found only

nonsensical crap with questionable samples. And of course the usual 'fixing' to get the desired result. Oh I am sure that many youngsters have landlines. The article was also based on the bullshit Sienna poll are well. Perhaps you might want to investigate the sources used for his article.

'This survey of 1,305 adults was conducted March 25th through March 28th, 2024 by the Marist Poll
sponsored in partnership with NPR and PBS NewsHour. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the
United States were contacted through a multi-mode design: By phone using live interviewers, by text, or
online. The sampling frames include RDD plus listed landline, RDD cell phone sample plus cell phone
sample based on billing address to account for inward and outward mobility, and aggregated online
research panels. Survey questions were available in English or Spanish. Phone and online samples were
selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its adult population. The samples
were then combined and balanced to reflect the 2022 American Community Survey 5-year estimates for
age, gender, income, race, and region. Results are statistically significant within ±3.5 percentage points.
There are 1,199 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±3.7
percentage points. Tables include results for subgroups to only display crosstabs with an acceptable
sampling error. It should be noted that although you may not see results listed for a certain group, it does
not mean interviews were not completed with those individuals. It simply means the sample size is too
small to report. The error margin was adjusted for sample weights and increases for cross-tabulations.'

It gets worse upon more examination.

[brooklynite]

37. Link is up thread

[ColinC]

38. How's Biden doing among older people?

[Playingmantis]

42. My story and thoughts on polls

I had a relative who was a trader on the stock exchange. Once he told me that everyday he gets "research" about stocks and he could find research to support whatever it was he wanted to believe. In the end, he said, I could ask my five year old son, "What's the market going to do today? Up or down?" and the kid had a 50% chance of being right.

It's the same with polls.. there are polls that will support whatever someone wants to believe...

I have seen pols talking about how the Hispanics are deserting Biden. how Blacks are leaving, how workers hate him , how old folks cant stand him and now how young people are walking away..
It's a wonder he has any support at all!!

What the Latin phrase for "grain of salt?"

[Demsrule86]

45. This guy from Hopium? Really. I don't think so. Simon Rosenberg????

Simon Rosenberg thinks we win...he has a podcast I listen to. Using his name is somewhat misleading Send a link please...




8 pts - Marquette

7 pts - Echelon

6 pts - Morning Consult

4 pts - NYT/Siena, HarrisX/Forbes, Redfield and Wilton

3 pts - Big Village

2 pts - Ipsos/Reuters
There is a podcast that everyone should listen to at the link. You can get a free membership.
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/why-im-optimistic-well-win-this-year

[-misanthroptimist]

49. I will say it yet again:

Polls are absolutely useless at this point. This year that's especially true.

[MorbidButterflyTat]

52. What's the point of posting this? What's your goal here?

From the link:

"And though there are fewer of them, Trump’s younger voters are far more enthusiastic about the former president than their peers who are backing Biden, according to the poll."

Hm. I wonder how they measured "enthusiasm," especially by "far more." Jumping up and down? Waving their arms? Firing off guns? While Prez Biden supporters just gave a feeble hat tip?

What a load.

The pic of Prez Biden looking sad because his poll numbers from 4 years ago show him slipping is especially effective.

[brooklynite]

57. I share political and election data which people can interpret as they see fit.

[Cha]

81. Yeah.. Predictable negative bullshit about Pres Biden

Last edited Fri Apr 19, 2024, 06:06 PM - Edit history (1)

on DU is so welcoming as you may have noticed.

[brooklynite]

83. I'm not afraid to look at data that might call for a change in political strategy...

...and based on my personal discussions with Biden's campaign manager, they're not afraid to either.

The Biden campaign has consistently said that the election will be close. Therefore, any potential erosion (even a small one) of base votes calls for evaluation.

[BannonsLiver]

60. To agitate.

Watching the plebs in a state of agitation when you have no real skin in the game is a form of entertainment.

[SocialDemocrat61]

67. It does seem like that

Why come here just to make snarky comments that belittle fellow members?

[BannonsLiver]

68. That's part of the superiority complex.

[Cha]

82. Ouch!

[WarGamer]

73. This poll fails to reinforce my internal biases... thus I call Bullshit.

Please let me know when a happy poll is released.

[Demsrule86]

84. How about a direct link to the polls.

[yardwork]

92. The framing of this report is misleading.

This paragraph is framed as a negative change for Biden, but it actually is nothing new and might even be good news. Trump won each of these demographics last time:

But Biden’s margins are far slimmer — or nonexistent — among other key demographics. He’s just 6 percentage points ahead of Trump among likely voters who are young men, according to the poll, and just 3 points ahead among white voters. When it comes to young people without college degrees, Biden and Trump are in a dead heat.

[gulliver]

96. We've normalized garbage information when it comes to polls and articles like this one

For instance, in this article, they attribute a quote about youth voter intentions to "John Della Volpe, polling director for the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics and an expert on polling young voters, said in a statement."

That is, the article author is vouching for the expertise of John Della Volpe on polling young voters. But what made the article author an expert on deciding who is an expert?

That's a common problem with journalism now. It's arrogance at best.