Biden and Trump tied despite debate (ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll)

[ClearSky24]

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-age-campaign-poll/story?id=111825221&cid=social_twitter_abcn

Americans divide 46-47% between Biden and Trump if the election were today, almost identical to a 44-46% ABC/Ipsos poll result in April. Among registered voters (though there’s plenty of time to register) it’s an absolute tie, 46-46%.

Were Vice President Kamala Harris to replace Biden as the Democratic nominee, vote choices are 49-46%, Harris-Trump, among all adults (and 49-47% among registered voters). Harris’ 49% is slightly better than Biden’s 46%, although she doesn’t have a statistically significant lead over Trump.

[Omnipresent]

1. I'm hoping these ties in the polls...

Don’t translate into Biden just getting more votes in already blue states.
We need his numbers to move in those battleground states.

[W_HAMILTON]

4. Good god, the worrying never stops, does it?

[LudwigPastorius]

20. You are not worried about a potential Trump win?

Not to be overly rude, but that seems like magical thinking.

[W_HAMILTON]

24. THAT is what we should actually be worrying about.

Not trying to overturn the will of the Democratic voters because of one debate performance, not bullshit polls, not finding a way to spin even positive polls into a negative, etc.

It's so damn ridiculous.

Channel that effort into something meaningful to stop a second Trump presidency rather than helping bring about it by constantly shitting on our Democratic nominee and finding ways to turn even good news into something we should all be fearful of.

Get a grip.

[Big Blue Marble]

27. How do you explain that in this same poll, a majority of Democrats want

Biden to drop out.

"The Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll was conducted July 5-9 among 2,431 U.S. adults through the Ipsos KnowledgePanel, a survey panel recruited through random sampling of households across the country. Overall results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus two percentage points; the error margin is 3.5 points among the sample of 825 self-identified Democrats and three points among the sample of 1,255 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents."

[karynnj]

30. It is not inconsistent for 1/2 to want Biden out AND in head to head, they vote Biden

In fact, much of the Biden drop out factor is fear that Trump will beat him.

What I have noticed looking at the polls listed in the NYT 538 polling section, is that the worst polls were polling before January 5th. The small number of polls, 2, totally after that show things back to or close to tied. Their graph does not show this as it continues to average in some of that earlier time. Now there is not enough polling for the latter period to confirm yet that the combination of the debate AND the intense media attack, that has led worried prominent Democrats to push for Biden to consider leaving, but it could be a sign that this will end.

The other promising thing for others is that Harris is doing better than she has - as she is the most likely alternative.

[Big Blue Marble]

31. It is not inconsistent at all.

Most Dems would vote for any candidate to keep Trump out of votes. They just do not think
Biden will be able to convince the independents and low-information voters to vote for him.

We need these voters and currently we are not getting anywhere close to enough to stop
Trump.

[karynnj]

40. Exactly, the dilemma is, it is Biden's decision and change at this point could be chaotic

All alternatives have down sides. I would love to believe that Biden, due to the debate and aftermath is a low point that he will rebound from. However, the scary thing is that Trump was at least tied going into the debate.

I can see why they are looking at Harris' polling. Anyone other than her would seem to defy the Democratic process. In her case, Biden was elected in 2020 with her as the VP, a position where she would replace Biden if needed. This is NOT exactly the same thing, but it is relatively similar. If they opt to go that way, it has to be with Biden's blessing. It would likely be good to poll the Biden delegates as to their choice ahead of time. Assuming she gets the number needed, the convention could be both a great introduction of her or anyone else and one day could be a celebration of all of Biden's (and his administration's accomplishments.)

[Big Blue Marble]

42. Yes change would be chaotic and unpredictable.

But right now we are living through the worst chaos politically that I have ever seen. And I have been around long enough to remember 1968 and the Eagleton debacle. And it is not getting any better.

Just a few minutes ago the NYT published an article that says multiple close advisors feel that Biden cannot win and should step aside and they are strategizing how to convince him to pass the torch.

"Some longtime aides and advisers to President Biden have become increasingly convinced that he will have to step aside from the campaign, and in recent days they have been trying to come up with ways to persuade him that he should, according to three people briefed on the matter.

A small group of Mr. Biden’s advisers in the administration and the campaign — at least two of whom have told allies that they do not believe he should keep trying to run for a second term — have said they would have to convince the president of several things.

They said they have to make the case to the president, who remains convinced of the strength of his campaign, that he cannot win against former President Donald J. Trump. They have to persuade him to believe that another candidate, like Vice President Kamala Harris, could beat Mr. Trump. And they have to assure Mr. Biden that, should he step aside, the process to choose another candidate would be orderly and not devolve into chaos in the Democratic Party."

snip

"The White House denied the account. “Unequivocally, this is not true,” said Andrew Bates, a White House spokesman. “President Biden’s team is strongly behind him.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/11/us/politics/biden-aides-campaign.html

[Big Blue Marble]

36. You are right.

Harris is doing well. The NYT reported this morning that the campaign is currently studying her support.

[W_HAMILTON]

33. I explain it by realizing that Democrats are a diverse bunch that each want their own particular candidates.

And just because the majority may want Biden to drop out doesn't mean the majority can coalesce on any one particular candidate -- hell, you know why Biden won in the first place? Even among literally dozens of other candidates? Because he was the most palatable to everyone. There is no difference now. If you think Democrats don't like Biden, just wait and see how much they don't like whoever replaces him (unless it's Michelle Obama, apparently).

[Big Blue Marble]

35. He was chosen because no other serious candidate challenged him.

It is simply horrifying that at this point in this critical race that the majority of the base wants
the candidate to drop out; no matter how you spin it.

Democrats like Biden; they are losing confidence that he is able to beat Trump. They will
unify around Biden or any other candidate on the ticket, The question is who will bring
enough independents with them. Last race, Biden won with independents; and he is
losing them now.

[W_HAMILTON]

38. Because no one could have beaten him and they didn't want to end their political futures by trying.

And the only polls that matter are those on Election Day and Democrats have been overperforming for years now when it counts.

But if you are putting your stock in those polls, you also see that those same polls show no one other than Michelle Obama doing substantially better than Biden, yes? You want to overturn the will of the voters and all the infighting and upheaval that will cause, for candidates that fare as well against Trump as Biden does?

Like I said, idiocy.

[Omnipresent]

21. Thats been the pattern in the past..

Heavily over performing in place like California by millions of votes, but winning by a sliver in places like Wisconsin, and Arizona.

[lees1975]

17. "These polls"

You mean the ones that have completely missed the mark during the primaries? Special elections? State elections? There will be apologists who buy the composite commentary and pollster accounts of their "accuracy" after the fact. But, how are they measuring the fact that a consistent 25% of Republican voters have been showing up, long after everyone else dropped out, to vote for someone other than Trump.

And what's with the very broad spread of "split ticket" polls, where Democratic senate candidates are polling 10 points or more above Biden in the same state, like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona. What's realistic is Nevada, where Rosen and Biden are polling about the same, and consistent with the way Nevada has voted over the past couple of election cycles. I'm having trouble believing that 10% of Wisconsin voters planning to support Tammy Baldwin would then turn around and vote for Trump, or that 14% of Bob Casey's supporters in Pennsylvania would do the same.

And it's been the polls that caused this tiny faction in the Democratic party to panic following the debate. They know that if it looks like a really close horserace, any irregularity will cause a panic. Frankly, I'd like the pollsters to lay out their manner of factoring to achieve their results. How do they determine that "voter enthusiasm" will cause fewer voters on the left wing to turn out than on the right? What causes a change in turning a registered voter into a "likely" voter? How does the data get gathered, and are the samples representative of the electorate, or are they skewed in some way?

This ABC/Ipsos poll, along with Emerson, Rasmussen, Marist, have an established record of overestimating Republican votes.

[Omnipresent]

39. Um..No

[democrattotheend]

34. Biden (or any Democrat) needs to win the popular vote by AT LEAST 2-3 points

To have a shot at the electoral college. And in light of the fact that Trump overperformed the polls in the 2016 and 2020 general elections, I won't feel good going into Election Day unless we have a 5+ point lead in the national polls. Hillary had an average of a 4-point lead in the last polls of the 2016 election, and she won the popular vote by 2 points but still lost the election, and the electoral math has gotten worse for us since the 2020 census. Biden had a 7 point lead in the national polls going into 2020, won the popular vote by 4.5 points, and yet 44,000 votes in the closest states would have swung the election the other way. I am not calling for Biden to be pushed aside and don't know if anyone else would do better, but a tie in the national polls is not even close to where we need to be.

[Freethinker65]

2. Biden and Harris need to be seen as a team by the public.

This should have been done earlier. Along with them, Biden has an entire qualified, dedicated to their jobs and country, cabinet that should be utilized to enforce the fact that when you elect a President, you get an entire team.

[TheKentuckian]

44. The population that it has been an ongoing battle to stop looking at the government

as if it were a business for decades is going to be retrained to accept a Chief Executive Committee/Team in four months?

I dunno!

[Self Esteem]

3. Trump is cooked: IF DEMOCRATS STOP COOKING BIDEN.

[shrike3]

7. Oh, that'd be too much to ask.

[Deek1935]

12. Exactly. This is just what DNC Chair Jaime Harrison just said. Of course polls will be close if some in one party are

not strongly supporting the candidate and if the media is hammering one candidate but not the other.

[MustLoveBeagles]

18. Correct

I'm tired of some members of our party writing the Republican attack Ads for them.

[lees1975]

16. !

[madibella]

5. Despite the debate, an onslaught from the media

And the backstabbing from his own party.

I remain disgusted.

[shrike3]

10. You should be.

[Magoo48]

6. When anyone in the MSM or recognized polls says it's a tie, Biden's leading in real life.

[azureblue]

8. and the poll

is always slanted to older voters, like 60+. I know a lot of sub 40 people that ignore the media, and are pissed off at the GOP, enough they will vote for a brick, before they vote GOP. And that is a quote from a 30 something woman..

[shrike3]

9. But -- but -- Biden is finished. Right?

[ok_cpu]

11. Have hard time feeling other than the election is largely baked at this point

Which makes the current undermining of Biden so much more frustrating.

The two candidates, track records, and visions are so diametrically opposed that who is changing their vote at this point?

Like, "I wasn't for the Nazi, but then Joe lost his voice," is really a thing?

[ITAL]

13. The topline figure isn't bad

Down just one after the last two weeks is almost a miracle. Some of the cross tabs are more worrisome, however overall not a bad result given the current climate.

[shrike3]

14. Yes, the debate didn't help matters. But it's not the disaster many are painting it to be.

There were calls for Joe to drop out for months. This isn't a new thing. But the debate threw gasoline on that fire.

[Bettie]

15. Keep in mind that in almost all of the special elections

Democrats have outperformed the polls significantly.

But, some in our party seem intent on ensuring a loss by removing our candidate 3 months before election day, one month before people start early voting in some states.

Frankly, I don't feel great about the idea that the party I've been part of since age 18, the party of my grandmother and great-grandmother would just tell voters (the ordinary people) that they don't matter, because some (mostly) white dudes with a lot of money decided we're not even a part of the decision making process anymore. But, if we lose, we'll be out of the decision process forever and historically, an incumbent not being the candidate doens't end well for their party.

[ananda]

19. Add at least 5 points to Biden's number.

We're good!

[JI7]

22. I don't know how accurate these numbers are but I think the VP Harris numbers are important

People need to feel confident with Harris as President as this can help with those concerned Biden is too old. That's why the election needs to be about her more than would be usual for a VP .

[Walleye]

26. Yes, fortunately, Kamala Harris is already on the ticket

[flamingdem]

23. Repuke voters probably pushing Kamala as a replacement

They know the game. Everyone knows the game except for some seemingly oblivious MSM pundits.

[groundloop]

25. I feel like we're probably going to pull this out.... but I've been horribly wrong before.

Me in 2016 - "There's no way in hell tRump beats Hillary".

Well, thanks to our fucked up electoral college the person with 3 MILLION fewer votes took over the White House and ran this country into the ground for four years.

[LisaL]

28. We could pull it out if our own party starts behaving.

Otherwise Biden has to fight on two fronts. His own party and Trump/Republicans. Which isn't helpful to us pulling it out.

[viva la]

29. 47% -- Trump about locked in at that, and he lost with that last time.

Not that national polls really mean much. It's only those blasted swing states that count.

[Think. Again.]

32. What do they mean by "despite debate"?...

Are they saying they think trump's non-stop lying to the American public is somehow better than Biden losing his train of thought for a moment?

[totodeinhere]

37. Are we supposed to be satisfied with a tie?

Damn it. President Biden should be leading by 30 points. What is wrong with the American voters? This is just getting ridiculous. How could that many people support a twice impeached convicted felon? I just don't understand.

[TRHST82]

41. Well

After all the relentless garbage for the past two weeks, I'll take this tie.

[totodeinhere]

46. Yeah but a tie means we have a 50% chance of losing.

And those odds are unacceptable because we cannot lose this election. It could mean the end of our democracy.

[JI7]

43. Nobody is going to lead by 30 becsuse of the makeup of our electorate

it's why we don't control Congress by a huge amount also becsuse there are many places with many people that votes for people like Gym Jordan, That douchebag from Florida , Boebert, Marjorie taylor green, and so many other shitty people.

[TheKentuckian]

45. I would think that 5 or 6 points could be scratched out though.

At least make the 47% 47% again!

It would be nice to whittle into that at least a hair or two but that ceiling cannot go up much and we hold the line.

[mdbl]

47. How stupidly sad

That there's that many people in the US that say they would vote for a lying, fascist convicted felon.