I know 538 isn't the be all, end all

[ITAL]

In 2020 they called on Biden to win with 348 to 190 EVs (PV 53.4 to 45.4). They were off, as the result was 306 to 232 (51.3 to 46.8). So even though they're calling for Biden to win 277 to 261 right now (47.7 to 45.1 PV margin), given he's down in the polls, many people don't find their model inputting other factors very reassuring. Party bosses are flipping out.

I honestly still like his chances. Biden is only given a 54% chance of winning as of now - hardly better than a coin flip. And yet, I still see it as quite probable.

[Walleye]

1. Running for office is not math or science. Biden has excellent instinct.

[4139]

2. Election Day 2016 538 said Hillary Clinton 302 electoral vote

Ignore 538

[ITAL]

4. 302 would have only been flipping a couple of really close states

And Trump basically pulled an inside straight to win. So they weren't really too far off to be honest.

I guess my point is they're in the ballpark, and if they still are slightly favoring Biden, I'm not sure why so many people say there is absolutely no way he can win and he's gonna pull the entire Party down with him.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

6. Probably the only time they were wrong

Polling is probably not too reliable these days. The Republicans were supposed to make big gains in the 2022 Congressional races.' They lost ground in the Senate and barely won the House.

Many people, myself included, do not answer calls if we do not know the caller.

[Klarkashton]

3. Considering that he's not down by 10 points

After the beating he has taken is a good sign I think. It's almost impossible to believe that the common person that has even a whiff of what would happen if trump wins would vote for him.
The billionaires think that by spending huge amounts of money they can shit the public and pull it off for trump.

[Deek1935]

5. 538 said Hillary had a 71% chance of winning the day of the election. How did that work out? Forget this SHIT.

[ITAL]

7. 29% is still a decent shot

It's not great and I would be flipping out if Biden only had a 29% shot in their system right now. That said, if i was hitting if I'm playing in Vegas, I'd take a better than one in four shot on a game.

[Deek1935]

9. Yes, how much $ would you place on a 29% probability? Not a frigging cent. Please forget polls. It is SHIT.

[ITAL]

10. I mean, not much because I'm not a big dollar gambler

And I never bet on football/basketball. However, I do occasionally like betting at the racetrack and the favorites only win 30% of the time or so. Hell even Secretariat lost five times in 21 aces.

[kansasobama]

8. Biden may have a strong Proj 2025 campaign

Waiting to be unleashed after RNC convention
If it is not that, then I will admit I was wrong and Biden made a mistake. If out comes the knives, other Dems will look like idiots.