538 this morning: Biden up to a 54% chance of winning

[Polybius]

Trump down to 46%.

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

[ITAL]

1. Waiting for today's update

I think there are usually two runs a day. I said yesterday that they're not the be all all end all and that it's still basically a coin flip. But that's the point...I'm not sure where this revolt is coming from if it's a tossup.

[underpants]

2. During their convention?

[Girard442]

3. 54% isn't stellar, but it's sorta good and trending better.

[NCDem47]

16. Is Biden ahead in the states that matter most?

Damn Electoral College.

[lees1975]

29. I don't think there is any place to get accurate polling data.

There used to be a way to check the daily tracking on You Gov. That, and Morning Consult, seem to be more random. But I think you have to subscribe to get the link. You could see the daily numbers, how many indicated support for each candidate, how many weren't sure, the biggest number was always those with whom they made contact but refused to answer.

Local news sources, particularly the larger daily newspapers, or local television outlets, usually have a contractor or two in-state that does tracking for them. Their reports and accuracy will depend on their political bias.

What I find interesting is that Democratic Senate candidates in battleground states are, for the most part, leading in local polling data in some cases by double digits. But Biden's numbers hold around 43-44%, never move, regardless of what happens, and Trumps never move either. I have seen some states where split ticket voting amounted to 3-5% of the votes since 2000, but it's rare and 5% is high. So these places where Democratic senate candidates are running 10% ahead of Biden seem to be off.

[wnylib]

30. And yet it is the down ticket candidates that

the dump Biden faction claims are hurt by Biden as candidate.

[Emile]

4. So this should stop the bed wetters and now join us in party unity

behind President Biden. Right?

[Norbert]

7. I'm still waiting for the "Biden has COVID. He should step down"

I'm sure Shiff is adding that to his "concerns".

[WA-03 Democrat]

34. I foolishly thought

Adam was the future for our party. Not the first time I have been wildly wrong

[NBachers]

58. Schiff's official congressional website has a place where people can leave comments. All comments are 100% behind Biden.

I left my own measured, yet scathing, message for him. He was one of the bright stars of my political world, and I am in California. His Dump Joe comments will always tarnish him in my eyes.

[Farmer-Rick]

36. I bet he gets an extra $10,000

For adding COVID to his list of issues with Biden.

[Wednesdays]

5. Convention bump

In reverse.



If this is true, people are really turned off by the shit show that is the Republican National Convention.

[livetohike]

8. I think everyone is exhausted by Trump. All the

years that he has been in the news every single day. Meanwhile, President Biden has kept his head down and quietly doing the work.

I have a feeling that the reason Trump looks so sad and is falling asleep is that he is exhausted with himself too. I don’t think we’ll be seeing huge, outdoor rallies anymore.

[Polybius]

21. This isn't a poll however

It's just 538 stating the chances. Not sure what changed.

[W_HAMILTON]

26. It's a forecast based on the polls.

The polls changed, so their forecast changes.

[Polybius]

42. But they changed for the worst

The last one were brutal. They base odds on other things too. Probably because of the hatefest at the Convention.

[W_HAMILTON]

45. They've actually gotten better.

Biden was behind about 5.0 points in polling average earlier this month, but now he's down just 3.7 -- basically a statistical tie when you factor in the margin of error and that's even including all the heavily Republican-biased polls being included in that average. Source: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein

[wnylib]

31. How does 538 calculate those chances?

[Farmer-Rick]

38. Go to his Web site

He explains his methodology there.

[TwilightZone]

6. It's funny how we suddenly have faith in 538 again.

"our model gives Donald Trump a durable lead in the polls"

It's interesting that this somehow still translates to a slight EC edge for Biden. That's completely opposite of what nearly everyone would expect. I certainly hope they're right, but I think a Trump win in popular vote would be bad news for the EC.

"538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency."

Many/most of the voters don't seem interested in giving President Biden due credit for the state of the economy, so one would hope that the 538 forecast isn't giving it undue weight in their calculations.

I'll feel better when President Biden opens up a lead in the swing states. That's all that really matters.

[thucythucy]

10. For what it's worth--

and I know it's worth nothing at all--but I have to say it again:

Fuck the Electoral College and fuck the impact of "swing states."

Without the EC Trump wouldn't have a chance at winning in November.

Without the EC Gore would have been our president in 2001.

Hillary Clinton would have been our president in 2016.

The USSC would be what it was meant to be: a more or less impartial interpreter of the Constitution.

And this nation and the world would be a much better place.

I know this is pissing into the wind, but I'll say it once again: Fuck the Electoral College.

End of rant.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Morris himself has said the further away from the election the more fundamentals affect the prediction.

The closer to the election the more polls affect the prediction. This makes abundant sense and I trust intelligent people can make the correct inference.

[wnylib]

32. If Biden won the EC but Trump won the popular vote,

MAGAs would demand that the popular vote counts over the EC.

But I seriously doubt that Trump could ever win the popular vote.

[Claustrum]

57. This is a similar situation that actually happened to the Tory in UK on July 4th.

For a long time, the Tories had enjoyed winning power with a minority of votes and it's the left that gets the short end of the stick. However, this time, Labour party won a huge majority of seats with the lowest % of votes in a very long time. We are talking about a similar vote share for the Labour party as back in 2019 but Labour only had like 150 seats in 2019 and they won 400+ seats out of 650 this time. Then suddenly, the far right fraction suddenly is interested in proportional representation.

However, I seriously doubt the republican will ever get to winning the popular vote but losing the EC. Our system is designed to give equal weight for smaller states. So this system will forever be favoring the republican unless a huge shift of support in the rural area for democrats which I don't think I will ever see.

[Fiendish Thingy]

9. Odds likely still boosted by good news on CPI

Will be interested to see the impact of the Emerson swing state polls.

[Elessar Zappa]

13. The predictions are probably going to flip several times on 538 before November.

It’s going to come down to turnout.

[Fiendish Thingy]

17. They have been flipping for the past several weeks

But Biden got a big boost this past week with the good news on inflation.

[Bengus81]

37. I think the turnout will be huge....as the saying goes,see you in ROEvember!

[Midnight Writer]

11. The better Joe does, the louder the fools call for him to step down. Wonder why?

The real contest starts in the fall. TeamBiden know what they are doing. I look for Joe to gain steadily in the polls after Labor Day.

If we let him.

[StarryNite]

24. Odd, isn't it?

My first thought was who will the next backstabber be?

[Bengus81]

39. Yep...Trump was supposed to get 3/5/10 points after the debate, never happened

Trump was supposed to get 3/5/10 points after the em..."shooting", never happened. But...Schiff,Riner,Clooney and dozens of others say Biden has to go.

[Farmer-Rick]

40. We are a capitalist nation after all

Money can buy anything it wants. Even treason and disloyalty; Not to mention the integrity and morals of poliiticians and judges.

[SocialDemocrat61]

12. But, but, but....

I thought polls said he has no chance to win?

[Polybius]

23. This isn't a poll, however

[Takket]

15. Share this with the congresspersons who say we can't win.

[Tickle]

18. It's because of these polls from CNN and others

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/07/16/cnns_john_king_trump_poised_for_electoral_college_victory_if_election_held_today.html


JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: I think the most striking thing, Jake, is on this first night of the republican convention. And let me turn this way so you can get a closer look. Just take a look between the then and now. This is the then. This is the 2020 presidential election. This is Joe Biden's overwhelming and convincing win in the Electoral College. Yes, the former president was in the room here tonight. Others in the room here tonight. Still say this was a rigged or unfair election. That's not true. It's just not true. Joe Biden won, and he won big. That was that, 306 to 232.

But this is our current CNN projection of where we are now. And look at this. If Donald Trump won, what we have here, dark red states, solid Republican. Light red states, leaning Republican. If he won just those right there, he would already have the path to 270. He would have 272 electoral votes. Look what is different. We have Wisconsin as a toss-up. We have Pennsylvania as a toss-up. Two critical states for Joe Biden. Michigan right now, another critical state for Biden, leaning Republican. Georgia, a state Biden flipped, leaning Republican. Arizona, a toss-up state. That was a state Biden flipped. Nevada, a state he won, leaning Republican. This is the dire strait for Joe Biden right now on the first night of the republican convention. Tomorrow is 16 weeks to Election Day. Sixteen weeks from tomorrow, we count the votes. It is tough to change a map like this in that amount of time.

[DFW]

19. Well, hell, son, you ain't gonna sell no papers with THAT headline!

That wouldn't raise the blood pressure of a hypochondriac during a panic attack.

However, a few million Republicans watching Vance speak and thinking "a heartbeat away from the presidency" is probably enough to give even then the staunchest right-winger pause.

[Scalded Nun]

20. So glad that 538 has him above the 50% line

[BoRaGard]

22. you go Joe

[Peacetrain]

25. I have not seen any Trump stories on my feed on FB from those in my friends list

who I know are republican.. last time they were throwing up all kinds of posts.. Make of it what you will .. but I see it as a positive sign

[Zilli]

27. It is devastating that our Democratic leaders have turned their back on

one of the best Presidents in my lifetime. I don't suppose that it matters, but I'm seriously considering changing my political party to Independent. Democrats have significantly let me down and betrayed our President. The choices made by Schiff, Jeffries and Pelosi, etc. along with a base of high end donors, are NOT my choices and I will vote for President Joe Biden

[DownriverDem]

28. Why then are

Dems at the top calling for him to step down? Is this a ploy to make we the people Dems wake up? I"m worried, scared and disgusted.

[Farmer-Rick]

41. They are paid to

It's as simple as that.

Putin has an entire nation he can impoverish to bribe a handful of ethically challenged Dems

[Polybius]

52. So why haven't their votes changed?

If Putin can bribe Schiff and others to make statements like this, why can't he bribe them to vote with the Republicans?

[Farmer-Rick]

59. Because then he would be under attack

Better to act like a concern troll and dodge most of the criticism.

"Oh my, we must help the pitiful Democratic party to be rid of the only man who has beaten Trump in a head to head campaign. It's for the party's own good because he's old. Oh my, we missed the fact that Biden was old during the primaries. So, now a few months before the election we need to throw our party into chaos because Biden is old."

I'm not saying Putin came up to Schiff and offered him $20,000 to act like a concern trolls. He funnels the money through surrogates. Filthy-rich Americans who are more than willing to betray the country in order to loot our nation's wealth.

The filthy-rich think they can get more from a fascist dictatorship than from our democracy. So, they take Putin's money and use it to buy Dems.

Someone once told me, "The filthy-rich give money to the Republicans to win elections. But they give money to Democrats to lose elections."

[SamuelTheThird]

44. Because there's nothing at all definitive about 538

They are aware of all of the data, public and private.

[W_HAMILTON]

47. Newsflash: there's nothing definitive about any of this polling bullshit.

[ffr]

33. Let's GOTV and let's win this for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris!

[Lulu KC]

35. I guess Nancy didn't see that

I feel squeamish. I do trust Nancy.

[Farmer-Rick]

43. The polls are broken

No matter what 538 does.

The polls are broken because no one answers their phones anymore.

And the people who do answer unknown numbers are a bit "unusual".

In-person polling is the only real way to get an accurate poll anymore.

But it's good to see 538 hedging their bets.

[Behind the Aegis]

46. Frankly, I wonder if that has to do with Joe fighting back against the supposed calls to step down.

Perhaps people realize, if he is willing to take on his own party, he can in fact, defeat the Orange menace!

[shrike3]

48. Billionaires don't give a rip. They want what they want and they have the money to buy it.

[DavidDvorkin]

49. It's going the other way

The most recent update has Biden at 52%, Trump at 48%.

[Polybius]

50. Ugg, down to 50-50 this afternoon

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo

[W_HAMILTON]

54. Now that it no longer shows Biden up, are you going to trust it?

Spoiler alert: it's going to go back and forth between now and Election Day. The race, sadly, is and will be a toss-up. Support is already mostly baked in for both candidates. Most of the country hates Trump and it's just a matter of turning out that vote. If we do, we win. If we don't, we lose. The day-to-day changes in polls and forecasts, especially those months out from the election, are not going to change this overriding fact.

[BoRaGard]

51. The wobble lobby needs to get a grip

[Cha]

56. And a CLUE

[LW1977]

53. But.. but.. but.. 2/3 of American voters..

The media is a shit show, and that now includes Keith Oldermann, the bipolar narcissist.

[MOMFUDSKI]

55. I will vote for Joe !

If he quits, which I wouldn’t want to see, then I will prolly stay home. The stupids will have to live with the consequences. I can ride it out. I am 76 years old. We are living in interesting times.

[Eko]

60. Kick