Post-Launch, the first Harris vs Trump polling.

[WarGamer]

https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/kamala-harris-biden-campaign-polling

Harris Is Uniting and Energizing Democratic Voters — and Polling Better Against Trump

A Morning Consult survey conducted after President Joe Biden ended his re-election campaign found that 65% of Democratic voters support Harris to lead the party’s ticket, more than double the level of support she had in a hypothetical look at the same question late last month following the first presidential debate.

Former President Donald Trump leads Harris by 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%, in our survey conducted after Biden announced his decision to step aside, marking an improvement from the 6-point margin Biden faced in our surveys conducted ahead of his exit from the race.

[Renew Deal]

1. Hopefully she can pull in more Dems and start convincing others

I think she can do it.

[democrattotheend]

2. That's not terrible given the circumstances

She probably needs at least a 4-5 point lead in the national polls going into the election to have a chance, given the electoral advantage Republicans have, but polls are a lagging indicator and she hasn't really had the chance to reintroduce herself to the American people yet. On the other hand, they haven't had a chance to take a lot of shots at her yet either.

[WarGamer]

4. It's an instant +4 move so a great start.

[Johnny2X2X]

7. I am not sure that's the case anymore

I think the dynamics have changed and she could barely win the popular vote and still win the Electoral College handily now. And the dynamic of Reps out perfoming the polls seems to have died too, Dems are outperofrming polls more often now.

[WarGamer]

9. No that's not why we need the cushion.

We need the cushion because of California.

In 2016 Trump won the popular vote in the 49 States (minus CA) but the Hillary vote total in CA (she won by 4+ million) pushed her to a big 3 million vote lead in the popular vote.

Clinton beat Trump by 2.1%

[Mme. Defarge]

10. ?

[WarGamer]

13. Read the post I was responding to.

[democrattotheend]

15. You may be right

Democrats in the 2010's were deluded into thinking the electoral college favored our party now, instead of realizing it mostly just favored one particular Democrat. Kamala might be able to reassemble some of the Obama coalition by increasing minority turnout, but I'm not sure what states that would put in play that Biden didn't win other than maybe North Carolina. Michigan and Wisconsin weren't even seriously in play when Obama ran, and Pennsylvania was barely in play in 2012.

[Wounded Bear]

3. It takes a week, at least, for polls to reflect reality if they ever do any more.

I take them as indicators, but I don't really base my decisions on them.

[Qutzupalotl]

5. If the young folk are energized and turn out,

we got this.

Another thread had Kamala winning a young demographic at well over 60% — and I expect her lead will only grow.

On edit, found it: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219222575

[JohnSJ]

6. Not enough data. This will only get better as she consolidates the Democratic vote, which was why I believe

the polls were somewhat inaccurate before Biden decided not to seek another term. In other words, while those Democrats were less enthusiastic about Biden, there is no doubt in my mind that they would have come home in November, and voted for Biden, and that could not be measured in the polls.

That being said, that Democratic consolidation will happen much quicker now behind Harris, and I fully expect the poll numbers reflect that relatively quickly.

July and August will have Democrats on the front page, because of the virtual convention, and unified convention in August. In other words we will have the last word before the actual campaigning goes into full drive, and we should see that in the poll numbers.

[lees1975]

11. That's one of the biggest subjective guesses in polls, how does enthusiasm translate into votes.

There are some assumptions made about that. Since 2016, while a lot of independent voters, and a few moderate Republicans may not demonstrate a high level of enthusiasm about voting for a Democrat, there's the "Trump fatigue factor," and they will hold their nose and vote against him. That's one of the guesses the pollsters missed in 2022. The democratic turnout was a little lower, mainly because there were fewer contested races in blue states, but the Dobbs decision fired up a lot of voters.

We're talking about a poll taken within two days of the announcement on Sunday, and in a national poll, with all of the convoluted factoring polls do to tamp down the democratic perspective, she's just two points down? That means she's probably about 5 points up in reality. That's fantastic for two days.

I think we have a winner, here.

[JohnSJ]

14. Exactly.

[BigDemVoter]

8. Amazing such instant movement!

[honest.abe]

12. Way too early to have much impact on polls.

Give it a few more days.