Why DO some people here think Scott Brown is sure to win a special election for Kerry's seat?

[Ken Burch]

(this is related to the prospects for Kerry being nominated as SoS).

Brown did just LOSE a Senate seat less than a month ago...against a candidate he badly outspent...why would anybody think the voters of Massachusetts would send him back to the same job they just now voted him out of?

After all, the reasons Brown won the last time was that the Dems in MA. made themselves look arrogant by calling it "The Kennedy seat", because the worst possible candidate won the primary(we can assume that candidate wouldn't be foolish enough to run again)and because it was in the midst of the healthcare debate...none of those factors will be in play this time.

[Archae]

1. These are republicans, don't forget.

Their capacity for self-delusion in nearly infinite.

That's why groups of republicans still say Mitt "won."
They claim Obama "stole" the election.
They still claim Obama is a Kenyan Muslim.
And so on...

[Coyotl]

2. Its like the daily meme crop out there, and they are all skewed to the right

We need our own meme farm, a good organic brand with rows and rows of meme greenhouses churning out left-leaning memes winter and summer.

You don't suppose DU is being trolled? NAW!

[hfojvt]

3. he would seem to have a tremendous name advantage over most other candidates

other than Patrick. He can also readily assemble a campaign team, unlike somebody else who would need more time to do so. He may even still have money in the bank.

Who do you think can beat him?

[Ken Burch]

5. Joe Kennedy, for one.

Probably anybody other than the person who was nominated against him in the last special, for another.
Anybody who doesn't take a two-week vacation in the middle of the freaking campaign, for that matter.

If Brown runs again, he'll look like he thinks he's just entitled to be in the Senate and the voters had no right to vote him out. That 'tude will piss off even a lot of 'Pug voters.

[MannyGoldstein]

8. We have lots of Dems who can kick his ass

And the Democrats have a great organization under John Walsh. The Republicans essentially became extinct thanks to Governor Romney becoming so hated - we usually have more Greens running for office than Republicans.

[nadinbrzezinski]

4. Since you asked for some analyss

Pros

1.- Name recognition, good or bad, he has it.

2.- the electorate in a special election is older, whiter and more conservative...translation, it trends republican.

Cons

1.-Brown ran an extremely divisive campaign

2- Assuming he is the candidate, let's hope dems learned the lesson and run a competent candidate.

Regardless, brown, to his credit, does understand how different the electorate will be.

Will he win? Not necessarily. Hell, I'm not sure the Rs will run him, but the electorate is the critical point here.

[MannyGoldstein]

6. Speaking as the first person on DU to predict that Warren would massacre Brown...

(At least I think I was the first...)

As long as the Dems run an actual Dem, Brown will get scalped again. If we run a Third Way shill, the it could go bad.

[TreasonousBastard]

7. There's always a contingent of naysayers ans worrywarts around here...

most of whom more'n likely have nothing to so with any campaigns, and in this case most likely don't live anywhere near Massachusetts.

Best to ignore them before they give you indigestion.

(Has Kerry even been offered the job yet?)




(Edited thpelling)

[bluestate10]

9. I live in Massachusetts and get involved with campaigns. So both of your assumptions are blown.

Nadin was the closest to reality. Brown will have an advantage in a special election. He has a 1 million voter base and the SE favors his type of voter showing up. I agree with the sentiment that democrats won't throw up a Martha Coakley again. But even with our best candidate up, Deval Patrick, we will have a heavy lift in a special election. This would make the fourth tough election for us in less than 3 years, if it happens.

[TreasonousBastard]

12. Maybe I wasn't talking about you.

[Egalitarian Thug]

10. Because SOME people know how it works in MA.

MA is pretty reliably Democratic, but don't confuse that with being especially liberal.

[Selatius]

11. First, Scott Brown can win if Democrats stay home and don't vote like they did in 2008/2012.

Second, if the Democratic Party in Massachusetts runs another Martha Coakley, Brown has an even better chance of winning.

[moondust]

13. Because his campaign organization is still warm?

And they might be facing somebody who is just putting a campaign together?

[Lucinda]

14. I think the vote difference was under 275k

(if I remember correctly) and Warren was a very popular candidate. It wasn't a runaway election for her. He still has lots of support and the machinery still at hand to gear back up...I think it is much more likely that he would win than not.

[Hekate]

15. Would Dems be able to GOTV sufficiently?

The comments about how Brown has campaign machinery that is "still warm" is a salient one. I live on the other coast and even I can see that. Repub money men might want to throw away some more money trying to buy that seat.

However, the view from the West Coast doesn't tell me if the Mass. Dems have been bringing along some up-and-comers who can sprint for this seat in a sudden election. Have they? Who's in the lineup that looks sufficiently strong?

I'd love to see John Kerry cap his career this way -- but would hate like poison to lose an important Senate seat to another damn Repub.

Hekate

[LiberalAndProud]

16. Scott Brown won in a special election not so long ago.

Who is sure how the electorate will go? My concern is that there is a possibility that Scott Brown would win. Democrats are notorious for staying home in midterm and special elections. Massachusetts Democrats worked tirelessly to get Elizabeth Warren elected. Why put them to the test again so soon?

I'll trust Obama. If he chooses to put the Senate seat up for grabs again by naming Kerry to a cabinet position, I figure he knows what he's doing. Certainly he got a educated about the possible outcomes of elections in 2010.

[graham4anything]

17. Repubicans would win and gain a seat. A major NO NO at this point.

Dems don't do well in special elections and Martha indeed wants to run again.

The question more important is-why WON'T John Kerry recuse himself and do the sherman

utmost in ego.

And repubs have won 1 senate seat and 2 governorships in recent time

Why risk the Senate, where in 2014, the dems will have the harder time than repbs based on which seats are open

The other question is-it has been less than a few years now since Kerry was elevated to Senior Senator from the state, which is so much more powerful than the #2 senator in each state.

At this point, he is seniority wise, one of the top of the top

It is so much more better position

And anyhow, Rice has the job sewn up. President Obama is toying with McCain, and waiting for Hillary to attempt to get peace in the mideast, something not accomplished since Jimmy Carter did so with Sadat and Begin.

This is a done deal.

John Kerry should issue the Sherman and let this issue pass

Nobody but Republicans are floating his name, and it is being done maliciously by them

And JK if he don't want to be in senate much anymore, should tell the dems in 2014 he won't run, at that point do it now, giving them 2 year head start to prepare and finance.

The rush elections are always won by the repubs

and the ironic irony is- it was because of Kerry himself that the rules were specifically changed and now they have come to bite him in the rear.
Remember who was Governor in 2004 when Kerry thought he won?
To avoid having that man (Mitt Romney) name the republican replacement, they changed the rules to have a special

If not for John Kerry, this would not even be a problem, but it is directly because of him that he now cannot chance having the senate swung from a sure seat to them.

(and the change was all to moot point anyhow as Kerry did not win, therefore no election was needed, but now it comes back to haunt them.)

Why anyone would put ego in front of the fate of the entire free world, I don't know.

I sure do hope the man himself (john kerry) is not the one keeping this story alive.
All it takes is one simple Sherman statement and that can show it is not him personally, just the repubs and some rabid fans of his.

Remember this is how Arnold, and all the others in recent time got in.

and again, Mass. is NOT a sure democratic win, except in most presidentials.

I would also much rather see Deval Patrick as Hillary's VP in 2016 and to not have stuff in a new senate term be used against him. Best to do it as a retired governor and it would give him 2 years to campaign.

Kerry could retire from the senate if he really is so bored of it in 2014, then Hillary can give him a position in 2016.
Or at least wait to take another job til after 2014 is over.

Remember how they attempted to oust Bill Clinton.
One needs to be ultra naive to think repubs if they win the senate in 14 won't do it instantly in 15.