Sorry if this has been asked before. What would happen if TFG drops out of the election?

[mitch96]

If he can't run for what ever reason, then what? Who would the repukes get on such short notice? Vance? I think not. Haley? maybe..Is there any legal precedent? Would it have any effect on Harris run?
Would this be uncharted waters?
tnx
m

[NameAlreadyTaken]

1. Well, the Democratic candidate dropped out and the VP moved up...

[melm00se]

8. That was prior to the party's official nomination

process. There is no constitutional requirements or process for a party to select their candidate.

Until the mid 20th century, primaries, for the most part, were unheard of. Candidates were selected in the proverbial smokey back room and put forth until all the states agreed to their national nominee.

[yardwork]

23. That might have been a better way, actually.

Trump never would have been picked in 2016.

[OAITW r.2.0]

2. Republicans get wiped out for a generation?

There really isn't a Republican "after Trump" scenario, that doesn't include a multi-year inter-war for the soul of the Republican Party.

[Squaredeal]

5. Trump will never drop out.

He’s trying to stay out of prison and this is his last shot.

[OAITW r.2.0]

9. We know that, but what happens to the Republican Party after November?

Democrats have a solid roadmap into the future. I see no future for the Trump Republican Party without Trump.

[OLDMDDEM]

40. The rethugs may get wiped out with Trump as their candidate.

[relayerbob]

3. No one knows and

Normal rules or procedures won’t apply.

[Wounded Bear]

4. Republicans in disarray...nt

[melm00se]

6. The Constitution is silent on this matter

and the only situation that is close was when Horace Greeley passed away between Election Day and the meeting of the Electoral College. The EC delegates split their votes for Thomas A. Hendricks (42 votes), Benjamin G. Brown (18 votes), Charles J. Jenkins (2 votes), and David Davis (1 vote) and there were 3 that were cast for Greeley (Congress did not count those).

Since then there have been no laws or other guidance as to what to do in the case of a candidate dropping out. So after the next sentence, this is all speculation.

Individuals don't vote for a person, they vote for a slate of Electoral College delegates who then vote for whomever they are pledged.

I would posit that if the candidate to whom they are pledged is no longer in the race, the Electors would be freed to cast their vote for whomever they wish (which would probably be the person that state's party selected as a secondary option).

[misanthrope]

13. If memory serves, the electors' obligation to vote for a pledged candidate

varies from state to state. "Faithless" electors have been a part of the process for a long time.

https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/can-members-electoral-college-choose-who-they-vote

[melm00se]

18. Is a elector faithless

if their pledged candidate is, for one reason or another, no longer running?

Additionally, the quoted ruling:

“A State may enforce an elector’s pledge to support his party’s nominee—and the state voters’ choice—for President. … Electors are not free agents; they are to vote for the candidate whom the State’s voters have chosen.”

says "may", not "must" or "shall".

I seriously doubt that a state would force their electors to vote for someone no longer in the race.

[RidinWithHarris]

19. I doubt know the details of those various state laws, but if a candidate dropped out or died...

...I don't suspect any state would try to prosecute an elector for voting for somebody else.

None of those laws can actually stop the elector from changing their vote anyway, the electors just have to worry about being punished, after their votes have been irrevocably cast, for doing so.

[Bucky]

24. It's not a constitutional issue. Political parties aren't part of the Constitution

Each party has earned its position on the November ballots in the 50 states and one federal district by vote-getting performance in 2020.

There's not one law for one election each cycle, but 51 laws, governing the 51 elections that occur in November. Each jurisdiction is authorized to conduct those elections by both the US Constitution and their own respective state constitutions. So each state would handle the matter separately.

When the Dem VP quit under scandal in 1972, all 51 states were able to correct their ballots in time after the Dem Nat'l Cmte picked a replacement choice for VP. The NRC would do the same if Trump drops out

[Dan]

7. It would not matter, because the MAGA

wouldn't support anyone else, they would have to run with Trump's body. And because they need that MAGA base, the GOP would prop his ass up and run with it.

But what would probably happen is that the RNC leadership (if any) would probably try and identify someone that would be acceptable to the base. There problem is that the GOP under Trump has purged the real republicans, the conservatives and all they have left are the sycophants of Trump.

The GOP forgot something important which is that a lot of the MAGA crowd never voted before - so what why vote without Trump.

I guess, what I am trying to say is that they have no middle management to groom for upper management in the GOP anymore, the rational people are gone; the old establishment has been discredited by Trump.

[mucholderthandirt]

17. There's hope that without Trump, most won't vote at all.

He's going to die eventually. Or be in prison, or out of the country. Either way, he won't be on any ticket. Those who think to follow him, DeSantis, Ramaswamy, even Haley, don't have a chance in hell of taking over. Trump's family owns the RNC now. My guess is, they could try with one of the sons, but they don't have Daddy's charisma. They aren't even shadows of his brand of shit business.

So, either the party splits and the MAGAs end up dying out, or the more sane, if you can call it that, arm of the party will try to regain what respect they once may have had. They may try to get back to Reagan-era fuckery, but it will take years before it really works again.

Whatever happens, we can never go back to the old ways. We have to keep fighting, keep winning, ever vigilant to this idiocy coming back in any usable way. We'll always have the idiots, but they can never again grow enough to take over the government. This means beating out any "Christian" Republicans like Mike Johnson. Send him crying back to mommy and Jeebus.

[Enter stage left]

10. The highly anticipated second episode of the shit show the " Weekend at Bernie's"...

[canetoad]

11. K&R

Good questions.

[Sneederbunk]

12. Hell will freeze over.

[VMA131Marine]

14. There is a point where it's impossible to replace

Trump’s name on the ballots because states have deadlines for the parties to notify them who the nominees are. I believe the original deadline for Ohio has already passed, although they extended it to accommodate the Democratic Convention.

If Trump drops out after all the deadlines have come and gone he’s still going to be on the ballot and the GOP can’t just substitute someone else, not even Vance.

There may be exceptions if Trump died or became incapacitated but these would vary by state. The only possible scenario would be if the Republicans took control of the House and Senate they could refuse to certify the election and then the House would choose the President and the Senate the Veep. But, we would be in deep, deep shit if it ever got to that.

[lastlib]

15. I presume you mean AFTER the dancing in the street and the riotous luaus?

Well, much would hinge on WHEN he bows out. He & Vance may have to stay on a lot of state ballots, and only a few totally deranged cultists would still cast ballots for someone not in the race; so the GOPee ticket loses, Harris/Walz are elected and sworn in, and and there would be more dncing in streets around the world. And more riotous luaus.

[Zoomie1986]

16. The RNC can replace him. They have the option to do it

But it's a moot point, because the only way he's leaving the race is toes up.

[Bucky]

25. Clarifying... RNC is the RNCommittee, not "Convention"

With its 155 members voting on who the replacement would be it Trump drops out

[newdayneeded]

20. Why would he....he's WINNING!!

I appreciate your post, but in all seriousness, he's winning by at least 20 points. That is what he hears from his inner circle a dozen times a day. He even mentions it in interviews and rallies. He's completely insulated from the real poll numbers.

[Bucky]

21. Not uncharted. GOP rules allow for the Republican Nat'l Cmte to name replacements

Who's the Republican National Committee?, you ask.

It's the nominal governing body of the federal Republican Party, an agglomeration of the 55 state Republican parties, counting PR, DC, Samoa, etc. There's 3 committee members from each state--a delegation chair plus one man and one baby-vessel with no bodily autonomy.

This group would vote to fill any vacancy on the ticket, but the ticket is set, no one can be fired.

[ecstatic]

22. His replacement would probably be a woman - Haley or Tulsi G.

Or he might get one of them to replace jd within the next week to take away media attention from the Democrats.

Just throwing shit out there. I have no idea.

[Bucky]

29. They'll pick whoever their told to pick

It wouldn't be Nikki, whom they hate. Not Tulsi, who's disqualified by having Hindu ovaries.

If Trump quit (ha!) and didn't designate a successor, they'd fight it out, based on what their party bosses tell them to do.

[Xavier Breath]

26. The nominee would be Vance and they would lose bigly.

There'd be too little time to get anyone else in place. Besides, he's got the right puppet masters behind him to see him anointed the successor. But the odds of that happening, outside of Trump's demise, is roughly the same as me being elected pope.

[Bucky]

30. Not how it works. See below

There's no rule that a VP nominee ascends to Prez nominee if the later quits or dies. This ain't a beauty contest. The RNCommittee has the power to fill the empty slot.

[Xavier Breath]

45. Did I say there was a rule, chief?

I believe he would be their choice. You don't know a damn thing more than any of the rest of us about what they would do, so stop being so dismissive.

Me waving you goodbye

[Bucky]

46. Please don't be so sensitive

I wasn't being dismissive. I was explaining how the process legally works.

[._.]

27. My guess

My guess would be Nikki Haley. There are a lot of Republicans who would love to see her at the head of the ticket. I don't believe too many of them want Shady Vance.

[Bucky]

31. Nah, the RNC hates Haley

Their 155 members would hold an emergency meeting and pick a new nominee.

[msfiddlestix]

28. I feel like it's possible for the psychopath to decide to drop out, because the humiliation of loss would be untenable

for him to accept. And if as I imagine and hope will be his crowd size at rallies will continue to shrink to a point where it obvious even to him, he will just step away playing the victim card all the way back to maggat lago.

[Alliepoo]

32. I'm thinking that since political experience isnt

Important to maga that they would put up Ivanka as their candidate. And I bet she’d do it, too.

[getagrip_already]

33. For arguments sake, if tsf died.....

The rnc exec committee would meet to select a new candidate.

The exec committee has been hand picked by tsf, and is made up by his family and sycophants.

It no longer has gop core constituents. No legacy faithful.

Whoever they pick would be in the maga mold, white, male (unless ivanks), young, and unscathed by recent turmoil.

The vp would be female, blond, vivacious, vacuous, and viscious.

[yardwork]

39. This is a very good point. They'd probably pick Lara Trump.

[getagrip_already]

41. A jared/lara ticket?

Im not sure theyd go that far, but who knows with this bunch.

Its 135 crazies, plus a few billionaires pulling their strings.

[yardwork]

42. Something like that.

The GOP is being run by 135 drug addled nut cases and a handful of sociopathic tech bros.

[Jirel]

34. Not that it's going to happen, but...

It’s super straightforward. Who they’d have step into the election, assuming it happens before the deadline to change ballots in the various states (Texas’ withdrawal deadline is 74 days prior to Election Day, for example), is anyone’s guess. But a party can choose whoever it wants to run. The GQP could call an emergency convention (by phone, if needed) and nominate someone else.

It’s not entirely uncharted water. We have had candidates die between nomination and election. Here’s an article on what has happened in congressional races. Death or withdrawal late would basically work the same.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2014/10/01/five-people-have-won-election-to-congress-despite-being-dead/

In Dump’s case, if he withdrew too late (it would be pointless to do so after various states’ withdrawal deadlines, and that’s coming up fast) or died, idiots would still be able to vote for him and Corporal Press Release. If the ticket won, Vance would wind up being inaugurated instead.

[Polybius]

53. "We have had candidates die between nomination and election"

True, but not Presidential candidates. We had one guy die after the election who was the nominee, but he lost the election anyway. Never has a Presidential nominee withdrawn or died after the Convention and before the election.

[Takket]

35. If he drops out he goes to prison

In other words, he’s not dropping out.

[mitch96]

37. Good point. If he did drop out I can see him going to a country with no extradition agreement with the US.

Then again being the narcissist he is, this would never do. He never ever "looses"...Things get "taken" from him so he can play the victim.. Always the victim, never the perp..
m

[yardwork]

43. He might drop, though. Theoretically.

[keithbvadu2]

36. Would the new candidate keep Vance? Doubtful.

[yardwork]

44. They'd seize the opportunity for a do- over.

[Bucky]

47. They would not be legally authorized to replace Vance

The Republican National Committee has the power to fill a vacant slot if a nominee dies or quits. They don't have the authority to remove a VP nominee on a whim.

[dwayneb]

38. A new dictator will emerge from the MAGA cesspool

We can't delude ourselves that this will end with Trump. The Fascist Right has been working for decades to install themselves in power in the USA and believe me they won't stop now. It probably won't be one of the current MAGA bootlickers, instead it will be someone from the more organized far Right groups - not Bannon but someone like him.

[Bucky]

48. Who could hold it all together? (Ask North Korea)

What person could possibly hold the cult of personality together?

This is why North Korea's politburo keeps putting the sons of dictator in Dear Leader's place.

Other than the uncharismatic Don Jr, who could everyone unite around?

When Biden withdrew, there were already in consideration half a dozen names getting bandied about. We're culturally small-d democratic. We have various leaders ready to vie for leadership.

They are culturally a dogpile, a survival of the fittest mosh pit with only room for one alpha chimp controlling all the bananas. They're lost without their autocrat.

[LeftInTX]

49. Same as if he dies. The party holds a nominating "convention".

With the Democrats, the DNC members will vote for a nominee. Probably same with the RNC.

His name could still appear on the ballot depending on the date. If it's after the ballot deadline, hs name will appear. Same with other dead or w/d candidates.


I believe president is the only race which does this. In other elections, people just vote for the dead candidate and if the dead candidate wins, no one wins.

[allegorical oracle]

50. What would happen? He'd be buried. Cuz he'd die before dropping out. nt

[JohnSJ]

51. Whatever the RNC rules say. He won't drop out though.

[bucolic_frolic]

52. The country would run out of champagne two months earlier than expected. /nt

[kimbutgar]

54. His bloated ego will not let him drop out!

And even if it’s a landslide in November for Harris the orange convicted felon will say the election was stolen and votes flipped.