****BREAKING**** Fairleigh Dickinson National Poll Harris 50% TFG 43%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

https://www.fdu.edu/news/fdu-poll-finds-race-and-gender-push-harris-above-trump-nationally/

[Fiendish Thingy]

1. Never heard of them.

Celebrate the trend (movement, not averages), not the individual poll.

[RedSpartan]

11. They're a pretty well-respected pollster. Ranked number 32 on 538, for what it's worth.

Also a great school. Full disclosure: my daughter goes there.

[Jersey Devil]

14. FDU is my alma mater

Teaneck (now Metropolitan) Campus.

Their polling has long been respected.

[UnderThisLaw]

31. You would have heard of them

if you were a Purdue fan!

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/35883961/16-seed-fairleigh-dickinson-stuns-no-1-purdue-ncaa-tournament

[GreenWave]

2. Now lamestream, I double dare you to quote this poll.

[Johnny2X2X]

3. So that's 3 legit polls yesterday

Harris +6, +7, and +8.

FDU is a very highly ranked poll, this is the 32nd higest ranked pollster on 538 out of about 400 pollsters. Probably would be considered an A- rated poll under their old system.

[Jacson6]

4. There is no need to post national polls.

Just like it was in 2020 this presidential race is going to come down to a few thousand voters in a few States to win the electoral college. IMHO.

[Johnny2X2X]

7. National polls are important and tell a clear trend in the race right now

State polls are looking great too though, according the the polling averages:
Arizona Harris +1.4
Georgia Trump +0.5
Michigan Harris +3.4
Nevada Harris +0.6
Pennsylvania Harris +1.8
Wisconsin Harris +3.8

Harris also leads in North Carolina and Maine's 4th district.

[ColinC]

13. Also I think with enough of a national lead you inevitably

Galvanize support in metro areas that spill over into neighboring states -such as was the case with Obama’s 2008 Chicago suburbs turnout that spilled over into Indiana and won him the state.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. Can you please...

Can you please tell our friend we can impute state movement in polls from national movement in polls since it's ultimately coming from the same universe of voters.

[Mountainguy]

18. Sometimes hard to make people understand

That national polls are state polls are not disconnected. They move together.

[lees1975]

19. The averages from 538 and RCP are behind the curve and not accurate.

[Johnny2X2X]

24. RCP is a joke

People should ignore RCP altogether, it's like the Trump campaign's polling.

538 is still legit and transparent. But I agree theyt're behind the curve as they're including stale polls in their average still, so that 3.6 average could really be +5.0 fo rHarris, we'll see that in the coming weeks.

[ColinC]

12. National polls are very helpful to understand the general feelings of voters.

And do translate -with enough of a lead, to electoral college victories.

[obamanut2012]

20. yes, there is

[ShazzieB]

32. I have an alternate suggestion.

If you're not interested in posts about polls, national or otherwise, don't read them. Ignore them, skip right over them. If they really bug you, trash those posts so you don't have to see them on your screen again. Easy peasy.

Some of us here are interested in these polls. (If you need evidence, this one has 133 recs at the moment - probably more by the time I post this.) I think most of us know better than to take polls as absolute gospel truth, but they are still relevant and interesting, as an indication of general trends.

If you're concerned that positive polls might make us overconfident, I really don't think that's going to happen. We all lived through the 2016 election, and we all know what happened then. I would bet anything that nobody here at DU is going to cut back on donations or working to GOTV, much less (dog forbid) not bother to vote, just because the polls are positive.

most of us can't freaking WAIT to vote! If positive polls lift our spirits and put a little extra spring in our step, we'll probably do a better job, if anything. Especially not the latter, because most of us can't freaking WAIT to vote!

So please, let the rest of us enjoy this news. I think we're entitled to it, after all the misery we've been through since the Orange Hellbeast came riding down that escalator. After the DNC convention, I feel better about the direction things are going in than I have in years. I feel optimistic, I felt energized, I feel joyful. I know I'm not the only one, so please, don't rain 🌧 on our parade!

[ColinC]

5. Good now let's see her start filling that undecided gap. I wanna see her over 60!!!

:bounce;

[Swede]

6. Any thinking human being should not vote for trump.

But that 30 per cent of humans have something wrong in their heads. The rest are grifters and haters.

[kansasobama]

8. I am shaking in my boots

About RFK Jr endorsement.

[Johnny2X2X]

9. Sarcasm?

RFK Jr's endorsement means very little.

[NoRethugFriends]

10. Uh, the poster was being sarcastic.

[kansasobama]

21. Yes, just being sarcastic

Yes

[Emile]

15. I sense a landslide coming in November.

[Norbert]

23. I'd just feel better if she is +7-8 on 2 months

With an ample amount of coattails. Nice to see though.

[Deminpenn]

28. I do, too

I've posted before that I believe the local school board elections, both primary and general elections, are a bellwhether. With a few exceptions, voters across the country, are rejecting the "moms for liberty" and other reactionary candidates running for local school boards and even recalling some that weren't up for election or re-election. I believe that's real life proof that Americans are just tired of the hate and division and want a return to normalcy.

Sure Trump will still get the votes of his cultists, but they are a shrinking minority.

[democratsruletheday]

30. Yes Emile...

if we all keep our nose to the grindstone, we can blow them out. But after '16 we're not gonna leave anything to chance obviously. I'll have PTSD from that election the rest of my life.

[Jersey Devil]

17. Note that this poll was pre-convention, conducted between August 17 and August 20

You'd have to add the convention bounce to get a more accurate reading of what it would be today.

[elocs]

22. That's nice, but I've never, ever heard of Fairleigh Dickinson in over 50 years of voting.

So excuse my lack of enthusiasm for their having Harris ahead.

[Johnny2X2X]

26. It's a very respected poll

They're one of the better polls on 538, ranked 32nd overall out of 400+ polls. Better than Gallup.

[peggysue2]

25. Not surprising

After the phenomenal Democratic Convention, even Michael Steele said he expected a strong bounce (something Trump did not have after his own dismal Convention). Steele predicted those numbers will grow right into the September 10th debate, another opportunity to gain support. After Kamala's speech, Steele also said he received a text from a prominent Republican (he wouldn't say who) that read simply:

Now that's how you become President!

Impressive Convention, extraordinary speech. Can't wait for the debate!

[Lulu KC]

27. I'm finding I care less and less about the reliability of polls the more I get to know them

But I get a little buzz when we're ahead. Must be a dopamine receptor going off.

[pat_k]

29. 47 to 48 in voters not "primed" to think about candidate race or gender.

I'm not sure what to make of their experiment on priming. Is the overall gap being driven by the gender/race priming effect? Or does the addition of questions on gender and/or race somehow "dilute" the effect of being asked the importance of the other five issues? (Tax Policy, Immigration Policy, Climate Change, Abortion and Foreign Policy.)