To understand Pearl Harbor requires knowing an amazing fact

[cthulu2016]

In 1941 the United States of America was, by far, the world's largest exporter of oil. Like 90% of all exports.

(Not 90% of all oil production, of course. Most energy is consumed locally. 90% of exports.)

Remember in "Chinatown" how there was an oil derrick in every Los Angeles parking lot? We had a lot of pools of oil that were easy to get at. Very low production costs. We were the Saudia Arabia of the 1930s.

I came of age in the 1970s and always felt the cultural disconnect on oil. It was plain that we had been all about oil recently... in 1940s-1960s cartoons Texans were assumed to be millionaires. When I started driving we were lining up for gas because we needed Arab oil, but only a few years earlier the Beverly Hillbillies got rich from simply shooting into the ground! How did we go from oil rich to oil poor so fast? What happened was our automotive culture kept growing and we pumped all the very low production-cost oil here, and the worlds remaining very low production cost oil in the 1970s was in Saudi Arabia and Iraq and Iran. We still had plenty of oil... but it was costlier. More than we were comfortable paying at the time.

But earlier, we had been the Saudi Arabia. Not only with all the oil, but at such low production costs that it prevented other people from developing oil souces. The world didn't know how much oil was in the middle east because there was little incentive to find out, for instance. (The history of Saudia Arabia would probably have been different if everyone knew it would end up the world's most valuable real estate.)

Anyway... Japan invaded Manchuria. We said get out of Manchuria. Japan said no. We said, okay, no more oil for you. Within weeks Japan attacked Pearl Harbor.

From today's perspective it seems inexplicable that a nation would commit national suicide because the US said we wouldn't sell them oil, but we were the OPEC of the era.

And we have all lived the story of what happens when a military power finds its access to oil threatened in any way. Freak-out.

It is not that Japan was right to attack. Leaving Manchuria would have been much closer to right (and smarter) than attacking America. The point is why Japan felt herself to be in a death struggle in the first place, and that got down to resources.

And, as WWII played out, Japan and Germany both found themselves doomed by a lack of oil supplies.

[longship]

1. That, and the six million tons of Japanese shipping sunk by US submarines.

More than any other service. It cut deeply into the Japanese oil resources and put their huge navy back into their harbors.

You are correct. The Pacific war was all about oil. Amongst the first conquests were Japan's attempt to restore their oil lifeline by taking Java.

Unfortunately, the Navy Department didn't realize the importance of interdicting the oil freighters until later in the war. But, once they put them at the top of the target priority, all was lost.

Good post.

[cthulu2016]

2. You are right that nothing is one-dimensional

I wanted to focus on the one thing that must be a mystery to modern students -- how a US oil embargo could have ever been tantamount to a declaration of war.

(Since we all grew up in a world obsessed with America's lack of oil.)

[hifiguy]

3. The Great Marianas Turkey Shoot also

had a lot to do with it. After that battle a goodly share of the Japanese Navy was sitting on the bottom of the Pacific, and their carrier launched aircraft had been basically wiped from the face of the earth.

[longship]

4. Of course, they lost many of their best at Midway.

They never really had a chance again. But the oil interdiction, especially through 1944-5 put the rest of their naval power close to bases.

Interestingly, Pearl Harbor ended up being a blessing. It sunk the Pacific fleet battle wagons -- WW I dinosaurs, all of them.

WW II was fought in the air. Battleships were worthless. The blessing was that the carriers were at sea on Sunday, December 7, 1941. It changed the course of the war in one stroke. Thankfully, Chester Nimitz knew it already.

[exboyfil]

5. The Japanese commander

at Pearl Harbor, Nagumo, was supposed to continue the attack until the oil storage facilities at Pearl Harbor were destroyed. He did not. In addition he was supposed to look for the carriers, and he did not do that either.

Yamamoto thought the Japanese would run wild for six months, and then the tide would turn which is exactly what happened.

Midway was a near thing. Nagumo kept changing his bomb load uncertain as to the composition of the forces opposing him (he thought we had one carrier - we had three because of a mistaken report of one sunk at the Coral Sea and the quick patch up job on the Yorktown). Our codebreakers gave us the advantage that day, and fortune smiled on us. Ultimately we would have been victorious in the Pacific, but Midway ensured that it would happen alot sooner and without some sort of negotiated settlement.

You are right about the limited usefullness of the battleships.

[longship]

7. Codebreakers! Joe Rochefort and company.

And Commander Layton, Nimitz's intelligence officer, who Chester trusted implicitly. Rochefort came up with the scam of broadcasting Midway water shortage in a code that was known to have been broken by the Japanese. When Japanese Naval commanders radioed their fleet to take extra water provisions, that's all Nimitz needed. Not to trust Layton's assessment (of which he was already certain) but to use as an assurance to the navy upper deck in Washington in the case they insisted that he use the fleet to defend the west coast (as some were recommending).

Midway was a very real gamble, but Rochefort had the goods. Layton's prediction of where and when the Japanese fleet would show up was five degrees and five minutes off. Damn good for 1942!

Spruance and Fletcher caught them with their pants down. Nagumo and his commanders helped immensely by their unbelievable indecision and some very good luck which benefitted only the US forces.

But without Rochefort and Layton, there is no telling what Nimitz might have done.

On Pearl. Indeed, the oil tanks were to be hit on the third wave. If Nagumo had done that, the Pacific fleet would have had to sortie from the west coast, putting the Pacific fleet effectively out of the war for months. No US Midway victory then.

Great stuff. Love it all.

[exboyfil]

18. As do I

Love listening to history audiobooks while walking my dogs. Audible has a fantastic selection.

[uponit7771]

13. I think our code breakers are Navaho code talkers were the biggest effect of Pacific war for US

[TheMadMonk]

16. Not quite. They were your "enigma machines".

Your code breakers were much the same as anyone else's.

[jwirr]

6. Thank you. That is a part of the history that I had never thought about even though I lived through

it.

[MadHound]

8. It's a bit more complicated than that,

Oil wasn't the only resource that Japan needed from the US, but steel and other metals as well. Also complicating the mix was Japan's hegemonic drive to conquer Asia and secure such resources for itself. This drive came into direct conflict with the safety of both US and European colonial outposts.

Oil played a large part, but it wasn't just about oil

[cthulu2016]

9. Everything in the world is more complicated than that

But since the US oil embargo was the single event most precipitant of the outbreak of war it happens to be the subject of the OP.

[MadHound]

17. Yes, but you're trying to make the case that it was all about the oil, it wasn't

Not even close.

Look, I could write pages and pages about this, but I have neither the time nor the inclination to do so. Instead, I suggest that you read "Japan Prepares for Total War: The Search for Economic Security, 1919-1941" by Michael A. Barnhart published by the Cornell University Press. It does an excellent job of exploring the underpinnings of Japan's drive for empire and why it finally came down to war with the US. Yes, oil was a major factor, but so was steel and iron, along with other minerals and a shortage of foreign currency among other things.

When trying to find the causes of military action it is rarely so simple as pinning it upon one desire or action. War usually comes about through the confluence of many needs, decisions and personalities. Japan's fight with the US was the same way. I suggest you get the book and educate yourself.

[hay rick]

20. You omitted the book title.

Expect you are referring to this: http://www.amazon.com/Japan-Prepares-Total-War-1919-1941/dp/0801495296/ref=la_B000APVDF6_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1354979458&sr=1-1

Your criticism of the OP seems unduly harsh as the poster readily admits that there were many other factors in play. My layman's take on the post is that he thinks the oil embargo was the straw that broke the camel's back. If you think there is another event which was a more important proximate cause of the attack on Pearl Harbor, that would seem more germane.

[FarCenter]

11. Japan already had substanial reserves of iron ore and coal in Manchuria

Industrial minerals were supplied by both their Korean and Manchurian colonies. They also had conquered much of China before '41.

However, the Indonesian and Malaysian oil fields were critically strategic for them.

[uponit7771]

10. Rec, ...How was Japan supposed to up it's oil supply by attacking the US? Also German had coal ...

...supplies that it sythesized and made high octane fuel out of

[slackmaster]

14. I can't recall anyone ever saying that the attack on Pearl Harbor turned out to be a good idea

[cthulu2016]

15. By driving the British out of the Pacific, for one

There was other oil in the world, but if the US and Britain controlled the pacific Japan would be hard pressed to get at it.

Japan expected a quick war with a negotiated peace between her and the US that would guarantee Japanese access to energy one way or another.

Japan did not expect an all-out war of national survival with unconditional surrender the only end point. She was using war in the old-fashioned diplomacy by other means way, as a means to gain concessions.

[exboyfil]

19. You are right

getting the British and the Dutch out freed up the Dutch East Indies oil for Japan.

[lunatica]

12. Imagine when the world will have wind, water and solar energy.

How many wars will not happen because of that? It seems most wars throughout history have been fought over natural resources.

[hay rick]

21. Interesting and informative post.

Ditto on many of the replies. Thanks.

K&R.