General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsNew Morning Consult National Poll: Harris 51 Trump 45
11,022 Likely voters with an MOE of 1%
https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/national
Thats a huge sample and a very small MOE. No wonder Trump is going more nuts. This margin would translate to a popular vote win of over 9 million votes.

lees1975
(6,432 posts)Just making that clear.
VMA131Marine
(4,958 posts)That one has Trump up by 3%: 51-48.
That poll is so far off compared to the other polls that you have to seriously question their sample. I am starting to get the impression that some of these polls are being put out there to make it easier for Trump to claim a rigged election. I never heard of many of these pollsters.
Johnny2X2X
(22,775 posts)25 polls since the debates. 22 of them have Harris +4 or more. 1 has Harris +2. The 2 Atlas polls are the only ones with Trump ahead.
The poll averages move slowly and some polls are weighted.Throw out the +8 one and the Atlas polls and she's up an average of 4.6 points right now. That's probably an accurate state of the race right now. Harris +4 or 5. If you include the outliers, the average is still Harris +4.0.
Trenzalore
(2,575 posts)A majority hates him and that has been born out in all polling since he left office
GreenWave
(11,087 posts)Sad really.
Johnny2X2X
(22,775 posts)She gained from the debates, probably 2-3 points. This poll was Harris +3 before the debate.
Huge sample. Well outside the margin of error. Solid pollster qand one of the most reported ones.
She is winning!
ck4829
(36,896 posts)That needs to be us in our heads 24/7.
MLAA
(19,144 posts)kansasobama
(1,750 posts)In swing states polls. So, we are not ahead
MontanaFarmer
(760 posts)polls when we start seeing the good ones post debate. Suffolk PA is a good start. Foot on the gas and finish strong.
Johnny2X2X
(22,775 posts)Right now Harris leads in the polling average in PA, MI, NV, and WI. Wisconsin is almost not even a swing state anymore because Harris is ahead enough. Michigan is sloidly for harris right now.
Trump has razor thin leads in AZ, GA, and NC.
And what's more is the state polls are less frequent, the debate seems to have had a 2 point impact, so Harris could be ahead in all of these states soon and well ahead in PA, MI, and WI.
lees1975
(6,432 posts)OrangeJoe
(500 posts)The whole election is about who wins the small slice of "undecided" voters in 7 swing states. Hopefully the swing in the overall vote totals may indeed sway some of these morons because people like to vote for the winner.
PortTack
(35,577 posts)These 3 have a track record
and it doesnt favor the gqp!
See post #37.
Sky Jewels
(9,116 posts)NC, GA, AZ and NV are close and fluctuating but many show Harris with a lead.
But, I get it. You constantly throw cold water on polling news.
PortTack
(35,577 posts)They will go blue.
obamanut2012
(28,419 posts)Wounded Bear
(61,775 posts)


peggysue2
(11,753 posts)They see what's happening and are flailing around hoping to distract and deflect from the worsening polls, a disastrous debate and a load of hateful comments. When you're attempting to raise money off a no-shot assassination attempt, you know there's desperation in the air.
Agent Orange and his sidekick are as deranged as the guy hiding in the bushes.
SunSeeker
(55,524 posts)Totally obvious.
kimbutgar
(24,906 posts)The Maga theology needs to be demolished on Election Day.
Aviation Pro
(14,227 posts)This will discourage all the west coast and Texas MAGATs and make the margin of victory so larger that it becomes a mandate irrespective of the ECV.
Roy Rolling
(7,279 posts)Go for 55. Then go for 60.
WTF is wrong with people still supporting a waste of space?
SunSeeker
(55,524 posts)Coexist
(26,202 posts)Rocknation
(44,909 posts)Last edited Tue Sep 17, 2024, 03:24 PM - Edit history (1)
But I want Kamala to win by at least eight points because DuhDon lost the popular vote by two percent in 2016, and by four percent in 2020. Double double down, y'all!
And speaking of 2020, let's spin that oldie but goodie...
Rocknation
oldsoftie
(13,538 posts)We already KNOW Harris will win the popular vote.
Now lets get as many of the swings as possible & maybe NC. THAT seals trump's fate.
kansasobama
(1,750 posts)We really need NC and GA or AZ
oldsoftie
(13,538 posts)And since the GOP State legislature refuses to put abortion on the ballot, he'll be the biggest draw.
GB_RN
(3,326 posts)Would have been involuntarily committed for his lunacy. Lobotomy wouldnt be necessary, IMO, because I dont think hes got any lobes to remove.
gristy
(10,719 posts)So, national polls do matter. But I get it, as does everyone on DU, that the EC elects the president.
kansasobama
(1,750 posts)That will knock out Donnie early and we can watch him rant all evening on election night.
Johnny2X2X
(22,775 posts)LOL, Tucker Carlson even has Harris ahead right now as their new poll shows Harris 43 Trump 42.
kansasobama
(1,750 posts)Fox poll is a good poll. Only ahead by 1 is not good. Fox poll and Fox News are on two different planets.
Johnny2X2X
(22,775 posts)Doesn't even pretend not to be Right Wing.
rogerballard
(3,995 posts)Almost a daily visit from me
MissouriDem47
(145 posts)is another great site. I check both 270towin and Electoral-vote.com several times a day looking for updates.
rogerballard
(3,995 posts)I will check it out
GB_RN
(3,326 posts)Ive been following them since the early 00s, pretty close to the beginning. Saw an ad for the site on Bartcop.com (RIP, Bart. A shot of Chinaco in your honor 🥃 .
The EV guys are part of my morning routine.
pat_k
(11,162 posts)And it is great seeing Harris Walz break 50!
PortTack
(35,577 posts)GB_RN
(3,326 posts)Thats kinda bizarre. The extra expense involved for getting it down that low, it had to be super spendy. Not really worth the extra expense, either.
Heres an excellent explanation of polling and MoE from Penn States College of Science web site:
Emphasis added.
VMA131Marine
(4,958 posts)the sample is truly random. The problem is that the distribution of support across geography, and demographics is not random. If youve got a 1,000 person sample, thats only 20 per state but a random sample would likely give a lot of respondents from populous states like California and few or none from those tiny (by population) states like Wyoming and Rhode Island. I think a much larger sample can better account for the different sub-groups in the population.
GB_RN
(3,326 posts)Larger samples increase the accuracy. Its the expense vs diminishing returns on the margin of error.
To get a sample size of 1500 responses, the polling agency probably calls about 50k. Not worth the effort or expense to go beyond a 3% MoE.
The polling agency will weight population groups differently to account for the sample of a particular populations responses being higher or lower than what they think is representative of that groups actual size. Every polling outfit has their own population models and so, weighs each group differently. This can account for marginal differences in results between agencies
unless its a partisan polling house, such as Rasmussen. These guys weigh groups so as to get results that are more favorable for their candidate. Thats why 538 downgrades those polling houses, or, even better, doesnt use their results at all.
Hope that makes sense.
applegrove
(125,763 posts)Just so the electoral college doesn't give the win to Trump.