New Morning Consult National Poll: Harris 51 Trump 45

[VMA131Marine]

11,022 Likely voters with an MOE of 1%

https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/national

That’s a huge sample and a very small MOE. No wonder Trump is going more nuts. This margin would translate to a popular vote win of over 9 million votes.

[lees1975]

1. So the Big Village poll that had her up by 7 is not an outlier. The polls that have it within 3 are the outliers.

Just making that clear.

[VMA131Marine]

6. The real outlier is the AtlasIntel (who) poll

That one has Trump up by 3%: 51-48.

That poll is so far off compared to the other polls that you have to seriously question their sample. I am starting to get the impression that some of these polls are being put out there to make it easier for Trump to claim a rigged election. I never heard of many of these pollsters.

[Johnny2X2X]

12. Post debate

25 polls since the debates. 22 of them have Harris +4 or more. 1 has Harris +2. The 2 Atlas polls are the only ones with Trump ahead.

The poll averages move slowly and some polls are weighted.Throw out the +8 one and the Atlas polls and she's up an average of 4.6 points right now. That's probably an accurate state of the race right now. Harris +4 or 5. If you include the outliers, the average is still Harris +4.0.

[Trenzalore]

20. Anything that has Trump breaking 47% nationally I question

A majority hates him and that has been born out in all polling since he left office

[GreenWave]

7. Even though some are focusing on the really small parties still out there.

Sad really.

[Johnny2X2X]

2. In before poo pooers arrive

She gained from the debates, probably 2-3 points. This poll was Harris +3 before the debate.

Huge sample. Well outside the margin of error. Solid pollster qand one of the most reported ones.

She is winning!

[ck4829]

3. Great news, but act like we're behind. "Trump is just slightly favored to win according to media"

That needs to be us in our heads 24/7.

[oldsoftie]

25. Amen!!

[MLAA]

4. Fantastic! And thanks for the link. That's a super way to see a given pollsters recent changes!

[kansasobama]

5. Yes we are not ahead

In swing states polls. So, we are not ahead

[MontanaFarmer]

8. We're going to be ahead in the swing state

polls when we start seeing the good ones post debate. Suffolk PA is a good start. Foot on the gas and finish strong.

[Johnny2X2X]

15. We are ahead in the swing state polls

Right now Harris leads in the polling average in PA, MI, NV, and WI. Wisconsin is almost not even a swing state anymore because Harris is ahead enough. Michigan is sloidly for harris right now.

Trump has razor thin leads in AZ, GA, and NC.

And what's more is the state polls are less frequent, the debate seems to have had a 2 point impact, so Harris could be ahead in all of these states soon and well ahead in PA, MI, and WI.

[lees1975]

10. Depends on the polls. She is leading in all of the swing states and it keeps getting bigger.

[OrangeJoe]

26. I like good news too, but....

The whole election is about who wins the small slice of "undecided" voters in 7 swing states. Hopefully the swing in the overall vote totals may indeed sway some of these morons because people like to vote for the winner.

[PortTack]

38. She only has to win PA, MI and WI to get to 270!

These 3 have a track record…and it doesn’t favor the gqp!

See post #37.

[Sky Jewels]

29. What? We are ahead in most swing state polls of the blue wall.

NC, GA, AZ and NV are close and fluctuating but many show Harris with a lead.

But, I get it. You constantly throw cold water on polling news.

[PortTack]

37. Saw one post here today that was +3 in PA. PA, MI and WI have only voted once in 30+ yrs for the gqp candidate

They will go blue.

[obamanut2012]

46. This poll says she is

[Wounded Bear]

9. Always love to see a poll with that 50% or greater number...

[peggysue2]

11. This is why Agent Orange and the fake hillbilly are becoming more shrill

They see what's happening and are flailing around hoping to distract and deflect from the worsening polls, a disastrous debate and a load of hateful comments. When you're attempting to raise money off a no-shot assassination attempt, you know there's desperation in the air.

Agent Orange and his sidekick are as deranged as the guy hiding in the bushes.

[SunSeeker]

16. They're desperately hoping for a polling bounce from the no-shot "assassination attempt."

Totally obvious.

[kimbutgar]

13. I want a landslide of epic proportions like the 64 election

The Maga theology needs to be demolished on Election Day.

[Aviation Pro]

14. I want North Carolina, Georgia and Florida in the win column by 8PM Nov. 5th

This will discourage all the west coast and Texas MAGATs and make the margin of victory so larger that it becomes a mandate irrespective of the ECV.

[Roy Rolling]

17. Not Enough

Go for 55. Then go for 60.

WTF is wrong with people still supporting a waste of space?

[SunSeeker]

18. The MSM still calls it "neck and neck" and shows pics of Trump instead of Kamala!

https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-09-16/early-voting-begins-with-little-movement-in-neck-and-neck-race-between-harris-trump

[Coexist]

19. WOW!

[Rocknation]

21. I'm happiest when I see a minimum of 750 respondents and a maximum of 3.5% MOE

Last edited Tue Sep 17, 2024, 02:24 PM - Edit history (1)

But I want Kamala to win by at least eight points because DuhDon lost the popular vote by two percent in 2016, and by four percent in 2020. Double double down, y'all!

And speaking of 2020, let's spin that oldie but goodie...


Rocknation

[oldsoftie]

22. Nice, but once again only swing state polls really matter.

We already KNOW Harris will win the popular vote.
Now lets get as many of the swings as possible & maybe NC. THAT seals trump's fate.

[kansasobama]

24. Agree about NC

We really need NC and GA or AZ

[oldsoftie]

27. The GOP Gov candidate in NC is a nut job too; he may hurt trump

And since the GOP State legislature refuses to put abortion on the ballot, he'll be the biggest draw.

[GB_RN]

42. Mark Robinson, In Any Other Time...

Would have been involuntarily committed for his lunacy. Lobotomy wouldn’t be necessary, IMO, because I don’t think he’s got any lobes to remove.

[oldsoftie]

45. LOL!

[gristy]

34. Swing state polls strongly correlate to national polls

So, national polls do matter. But I get it, as does everyone on DU, that the EC elects the president.

[kansasobama]

23. Hope we win GA, NC, AZ

That will knock out Donnie early and we can watch him rant all evening on election night.

[Johnny2X2X]

28. Daily Mail has Harris up

LOL, Tucker Carlson even has Harris ahead right now as their new poll shows Harris 43 Trump 42.

[kansasobama]

31. What poll?

Fox poll is a good poll. Only ahead by 1 is not good. Fox poll and Fox News are on two different planets.

[Johnny2X2X]

33. JL Partners Daily Mail Poll

Doesn't even pretend not to be Right Wing.

[rogerballard]

30. 270towin is such a great website

Almost a daily visit from me

[MissouriDem47]

36. Electoral-Vote.com

is another great site. I check both 270towin and Electoral-vote.com several times a day looking for updates.

[rogerballard]

39. Cool thanks for the tip

I will check it out

[GB_RN]

41. EV Is Great.

I’ve been following them since the early ‘00s, pretty close to the beginning. Saw an ad for the site on Bartcop.com (RIP, Bart. A shot of Chinaco in your honor 🥃 .

The EV guys are part of my morning routine.

[pat_k]

32. His floor has eroded a bit.

And it is great seeing Harris Walz break 50!

[PortTack]

35. Over 50%...definitely in the winning category....not much on polls, but consistency in most of the polls is noted!

[GB_RN]

40. A Margin Of Error Of 1%?

That’s kinda bizarre. The extra expense involved for getting it down that low, it had to be super spendy. Not really worth the extra expense, either.

Here’s an excellent explanation of polling and MoE from Penn State’s College of Science web site:

… you again find that as the sample size increases, the margin of error decreases. However, you should also notice that there is a diminishing return from taking larger and larger samples…the amount by which the margin of error decreases is most substantial between samples sizes of 200 and 1500. This implies that the reliability of the estimate is more strongly affected by the size of the sample in that range. In contrast, the margin of error does not substantially decrease at sample sizes above 1500 (since it is already below 3%). It is rarely worth it for pollsters to spend additional time and money to bring the margin of error down below 3% or so. After that point, it is probably better to spend additional resources on reducing sources of bias that might be on the same order as the margin of error.

Emphasis added.

[VMA131Marine]

43. I agree with all of that under the assumption that

the sample is truly random. The problem is that the distribution of support across geography, and demographics is not random. If you’ve got a 1,000 person sample, that’s only 20 per state but a random sample would likely give a lot of respondents from populous states like California and few or none from those tiny (by population) states like Wyoming and Rhode Island. I think a much larger sample can better account for the different sub-groups in the population.

[GB_RN]

44. Without A Doubt...

Larger samples increase the accuracy. It’s the expense vs diminishing returns on the margin of error.

To get a sample size of 1500 responses, the polling agency probably calls about 50k. Not worth the effort or expense to go beyond a 3% MoE.

The polling agency will weight population groups differently to account for the sample of a particular population’s responses being higher or lower than what they think is representative of that group’s actual size. Every polling outfit has their own population models and so, weighs each group differently. This can account for marginal differences in results between agencies…unless it’s a partisan polling house, such as Rasmussen. These guys weigh groups so as to get results that are more favorable for their candidate. That’s why 538 downgrades those polling houses, or, even better, doesn’t use their results at all.

Hope that makes sense.

[applegrove]

47. It is still not safe enough. We need 7 or 9 point lead.

Just so the electoral college doesn't give the win to Trump.