Red states to swing states?

[leftieNanner]

This election may surprise us. There are a few red states which might be in play for the Democrats.

Wouldn't it be interesting if, for example, Ron Desantis has to certify Harris Walz as President/VP elect for Florida? Or Greg Abbott in Texas?

I relish the thought!

[Mad_Machine76]

1. Just one of those states

would clinch it for Harris beyond any doubt.

[TwilightZone]

2. Outside of the remarkable happening, FL/TX are really the only two possible.

Not counting the one district in NE and the one in ME, that is, since you referred to states.

It's kind of depressing that states like Iowa aren't even in the conversation anymore. They took a hard right and it doesn't seem likely to change anytime soon.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/presidential-race-ratings

[leftieNanner]

5. Yes, it is depressing

North Carolina could certainly go blue this time.

[TwilightZone]

6. Yep.

I have friends there, and they're working their tails off trying to make it happen.

[lees1975]

8. Not interested in Cook's opinion since their errors in 2016 and 2020.

There may be more surprises than the traditional predictions are able to pick up.

[TwilightZone]

9. Everyone has the same states as Solid R.

Here's 538:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

270-to-win:

https://www.270towin.com/

The map sometimes shows Indiana as Likely R, but the underlying data (Trump +16.5%) says it's Solid R.

NBC:

https://www.nbcnews.com/specials/road-to-270-electoral-college-interactive-map-2024-election/

[Emile]

3. Indiana voted for Obama once, anything is possible.

[TwilightZone]

4. Trump won Indiana by 17% in 2020

He's up a similar amount in the polls, so IN is going to be tough.

What's crazy is that Clinton won West Virginia twice. Trump won it by nearly 40% in 2020.

[Self Esteem]

12. WV isn't crazy when you realize it was a Democratic stronghold for years.

Even Dukakis won West Virginia in 1988.

But the shift with poor and working class whites away from the Democratic Party has kinda killed states like WV and Kentucky ever going Democratic at the presidential level again.

Conversely, the Democrats doing increasingly well with college-educated whites is exactly why states like Virginia are now solidly blue at the presidential level.

[Self Esteem]

10. Indiana was a clear polling swing state by this point in 2008.

You can see the polls here. So, while people might not have expected Obama to win, his winning wasn't a shock.

I don't see any major red state switching to Harris.

[sky_masterson]

7. I still have dreams of Kansas going Blue. We do have a Dem Gov.

Female Democrats do better than Male Democrats here statewide if you consider that the last Two Dem Governors to win Kansas were Female.
It's the Wives of Republican men, IMHO.
We did just defeat an Abortion ban.
The home of Ted Lasso may surprise us. (It wont, but I can hope/cope)

[Elessar Zappa]

11. North Carolina's the big one.