I understand all the lousy feelings about polls and data on early voting. However,

[somaticexperiencing]

Aren't we convinced by the news and data that a sizable percentage of Republicans will vote for Kamal Harris?
Witness Liz Cheney, to the point of even campaigning with our fantastically adept candidate Kamala Harris.

The Republicans and Independents who are voting early - isn't it just as likely they are voting for Harris/Walz as Donald Trump and that other scum?

[Quiet Em]

1. Early voting is a much better indicator than polls

I'm encouraged. Women are outpacing men by double digits in early voting. That bodes extremely well for us.

[Peacetrain]

2. I do not have any lousy feelings

In fact I feel quite positive... Voted yesterday.. and as long as we all get out and vote.. the nightmare will end..

[Wiz Imp]

3. I am convinced you're right.

I think more Republicans voted for Biden in 2020 than most people guess. And this year, I think the number voting for Harris will be even significantly higher.

[Island Blue]

8. I've seen quite a few Republicans for Harris

signs in my very red area. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a sign like that for any other Democratic candidate.

[Ocelot II]

4. I've been wondering whether there aren't people in every community

who don't support Trump but have to act like they do in order to get along with the people they have to live and work with - family, neighbors, co-workers, church, etc., but will vote for Harris and not tell anyone. If you live in Butthole, Alabama and all your neighbors and your church members and your siblings and maybe even your spouse are MAGAs, you'll probably keep quiet if you don't agree with them. I'm guessing this might be more likely among women with MAGA husbands than the other way around. There might not be a lot of these people but I bet there are some. And in some places it might make a difference.

[NCDem47]

6. OK...so everyone is voting early

Does that really take away from Democrats? We just have more R voters in the overall mix this time around? At the end of the day, a vote is a vote and all will be revealed on or around Nov. 5. Ds WILL turnout!!

[pamdb]

7. lousy feelings

I'm a nervous wreck. At least I have blood pressure medication. At 73 and 72, we're just too old to move to another country, as tempting as
that is. Doctors. We used to try and get my husband's parents to move close to one of their kids (they had none in the state they lived in) and they kept saying, "but our doctors." Now we understand. I wake up at 4 or 5 in the morning and can't get back to sleep and start worrying. I just cannot believe this race is so close. I never realized there were so many stupid, ignorant, self centered and easily duped people in this country but I guess there are, And don't even begin to tell me to be nicer, to try and "understand." Bull. I'm done trying to understand these people. And the scariest thing is, it's not just trump. I would give him one year before he's pushed out by Vance and Moses Mike. Vance is younger and smarter and far more dangerous than trump. That will really be the end of this democracy. My brother in law says, "get your burqa ready."

[Rstrstx]

9. The only states that look bad on paper are AZ and NV

Where there are clearly more Republicans voting early than in the past.

Most of the other states are seeing similar percentages to 2020, though at lower turnout rates.

It looks particularly good in MI and WI. One of those states, I can’t remember which, has seen a sharp decline in R turnout, though most of them seem to have moved into the unaffiliated column. Still, I can’t imagine most of those people moving from R to unaligned just so they could vote for Trump.

The double digit gap of women to men voting is even more encouraging.