Aviation expert predicts cause of deadly Washington plane crash. A rational explanation of the air crash: 2:51 mins.

[ShazamIam]

There are countless speculations & claims about the very tragic airplane/helicopter crash. This is the most rational, but still speculative explanation I have seen so far today.

[elleng]

1. Very interesting analysis/speculation, TRAINING military helicopter

'may have been' training for black-ops, hence necessary devices turned OFF.

6 helicopter maneuvers done/made/observed.

[ok_cpu]

2. I don't know anything about any of this or who this guy is

but that seems wildly speculative to me. Seems insane that kind of training / testing would be done at an airport as busy as Reagan basically right in front of a runway where it could intersect a commercial plane so far into its approach that it was just a couple hundred feet from the ground.

Training flight with terrible human error of not turning the system on? Could see that. But intentionally "going black"?

[ShazamIam]

5. It was the least speculative view I had seen today and he seems to base his prediction on the few known facts and his

own knowledge. True, I didn't backgound vet him.

[rampartd]

11. such training would never be done in crowded airspace

[elleng]

15. but that's where the base is located, no choice.

[rampartd]

16. the choice is to fly out to the boonies

[magicarpet]

3. trDUMPie liked his no facts explanation,...

..... better. It was all DEI issues, Pete Buttigueg's and Biden's fault because they are stupid and dumb and trDUMPie is a smart, talented, handsome, movie starish sort of chap.

If trDUMP was pResident this would have never happened.

Oh wait, oh never mind, it still was not djt's fault.

[Thunderbeast]

4. For what it's worth (probably not much)

There was another airliner seen in the video that was a bit ahead of the doomed plane. ATC advised the helicopter to look for traffic in the vicinity, and to navigate behind it's path. The Army pilot was wearing night vision goggles which, I assume, limit their field of vision. If the pilot mistook the lead plane for the one they were warned about, they may not have seen the American plane coming from the left. According to this commentator, collision avoidance systems were not operating making this "exercise" very risky in congested air space.

Again...I am an old fart sitting in a far away recliner, but this looks like a plausible scenario to me.

[ShazamIam]

6. That is one of the thoughts I had about the reports, that the helicopter had seen the wrong airplane. nt

[EX500rider]

8. "collision avoidance systems were not operating "

TCAS (traffic alert and collision avoidance system) RA's (the climb/descent instructions from the computer) are inhibited below 1000' radio altitude.
TA's (Traffic Advisories, "Traffic Traffic" ) is usually inhibited below 500' so the pilots can focus on landing.

[cos dem]

7. This does seem plausible

With the important caveat that anything at this point is mostly idle speculation, it does appear to me that the CRJ was on a standard approach. I also have questions about the ADSB and TCAS, which should have absolutely been enabled when operating in this airspace. If the UH60 was perform a "covert" training operation, that should be done within a MOA (military operating area) at a minimum, not in one of the busiest airspaces in the country. Even then, I question why that would be necessary, since the training itself should not need to be covert, just "here's how you would do it, if it was required".

The tower apparently asked the UH60 if it had the CRJ in sight, but it's not clear if the 60 responded (they may have been on a military frequency). Conditions were visual, so it really should be on the UH60 pilot to see-and-avoid.

[EX500rider]

9. Too low

TCAS (traffic alert and collision avoidance system) RA's (the climb/descent instructions from the computer) are inhibited below 1000' radio altitude.
TA's (Traffic Advisories, "Traffic Traffic" ) is usually inhibited below 500' so the pilots can focus on landing.

Plus I believe military helicopters do not show up on TCAS

[cos dem]

17. Thanks, didn't know that. But it makes sense.

[EX500rider]

10. helicopter routes over the river go right through runway 33 approach:

On that section there is a max alt of 200' for the helos. Seems like he was too high.

https://aeronav.faa.gov/visual/12-26-2024/PDFs/Balt-Wash_Heli.pdf

[EX500rider]

12. Here's a good review of what we know so far:

[ShazamIam]

13. Thanks, more details than I had found and also not overly long. Great addition to the post. nt

[EX500rider]

14. He has a update here:

[cos dem]

18. So, ADSB was responding. Otherwise they wouldn't have the track data.

It's looking like bad altitude control by the UH60.

I can't judge, altitude control can be difficult, especially if it's windy, and it sounds like it may have been a bit windy that night. But, the airspace is obviously extremely tight, with zero margin for error.