What comes after the Israel/Iran war ends?

[Arazi]

Let’s presume Israel manages to effect regime change and that Iran becomes a democracy (this is wish casting obviously but let’s just paint the rosiest picture).

I’m guessing Iran will still pursue nuclear deterrence. They still have regional security issues that would continue to exist even without the Supreme Leader around, as a Shia state surrounded by Sunni states. In fact, their desire to be a regional hegemony won’t go away - their neighbors would hate them (more?) if they became a model democratic state on top of being Shia.

Furthermore most of Iran’s neighbors also have disenfranchised Shia minorities and while it would be an improvement that their main defender wasn't just pushing these Shia groups towards terrorism, it makes their desire to be a powerful protector even more imperative imo.

So the war ends and they don’t hate Israel anymore, will the world allow them nuclear deterrence?

[travelingthrulife]

1. It never ends. Thousands of years of tribal grudges based on Abrahamic

religions.

[Arazi]

2. Gonna be interesting if Israel runs out of defense bombs before Iran runs out of guided missiles

Yemen is fucked and they're not exactly having problems threatening the Israelis.

Smashing Iran polity, even if successful leaves a problem twice the size of Iraq, with far more natural resources to exploit for the winners of the brutality stakes.

[dutch777]

3. Short of some enforced secular government the Shia v Sunni v Jewish belligerence will remain.

And that would likely require some defense guarantees from someone like the US. Good point that if they become a DEMOCRATIC, yet still Shia state, that will cause additional issues for the other Arab autocracies

[thought crime]

8. Yes, this is the Forever War.

[NewHendoLib]

4. End??? LOL!

[TnDem]

5. re: Iran

All of the surrounding countries secretly want Iran's nuclear capability annihilated.

Saudi Arabia trusts Iran less than Israel does.

[Arazi]

6. Yup

Iran has no organized opposition afaik (other than the remnants of the royal Pahlavi family in DC).

I presume they’ll fall into civil war which the Saudis will watch with great joy. Im sure Netanyahu will wash his hands of the post-war mess he creates - probably believes the US, China or the EU will clean it up since there’s no power at the UN anymore to do anything

[karynnj]

7. Even assuming Iran becomes a democracy,

it will not solve the problems of the MIddle East, though it would remove some support for terrorists.

In reality, that scenario including that they would no longer hate Israel, sounds like the neo con fantasy that led to our attack on Iraq. The idea that removing Saddam would create a thriving democracy was unrealistic.

Force from the outside seems to often rally support around unpopular leaders. There was more of a chance that Iran could have become more moderate after the Obama deal than after Trump proved that their fear that the US could not be trusted to keep deals and the assassination of a top general. The first Trump term moved them to even more authoritarian.

But, let's say the attacks, did cause regime change. I agree with you that, if as it seems now, a significant part of their program has survived, a democracy may demand they strive to become a nuclear power for their own security.

Also, if they did become a credible democracy and rejected being an Islamic Republic, they would argue that they, not Israel, is the only real democracy in the area. They would also be well positioned to lead an effort to end the Sunni/Shiite division that is in large measure a result of colonial power favoring the smaller faction over the majority in countries when they were colonized.

If all that happened, the Middle east would be more peaceful over all, but it might have the unintended consequence of making Israel/Palestine the biggest remaining issue. There might be enough balance of power to genuinely make a two state solution viable which is obviously not Netanyahu and his RW coalition's goal.

[Arazi]

9. Thoughtful response

I woke up this morning pondering Netanyahu’s (unstated but obvious) goal of regime change and honestly need to read more about the internal dynamics of Iran.

I know the morality police have been having some issues forcing women back into full cover since Mahsa Amini. And there’s always been brewing underground resistance but I’ve never heard of any organized party apparatus coordinating anything.

I presume Iran faces civil war after Israel takes out the Supreme Leader. I know they’ve built up a fairly large bench of potential leadership replacements if/when he goes but I suspect the people will take this opportunity to overthrow the “Islamic Republic” structure entirely.

Iranian democracy feels like a mirage so the world needs to brace for whatever comes next, they will be speed racing to a nuclear armed Iran

[karynnj]

11. Like you, I don't know enough

The Islamic Republic has been in power since the Carter years. This means anyone born after the late 1970s has spent their entire life under this regime. When the Shah fell, there were a significant number of people who thought they were protesting for a democracy.

If you think people form their view of the world starting in their teens ( or somewhat earlier for some), that would mean that everyone not born before 1970 came of age under the Islamic regime. It may be that some were very quietly influenced by their elders who knew a more secular time or by the prevalence of things like the internet.

Personally, I had an Iranian born office mate in the early 1980s who had been studying in the US when the Shah fell. By the time I knew her, she was a green card holder married to an American on the path to citizenship. She was brilliant, beautiful and an extremely nice person. She was one of many secular, extremely well educated modern people. I would imagine, that like her, there were many who are now part of a Persian (the word she chose to describe herself) diaspora. The question is how many remained.

Unlike many countries who have their roots as a country in lines drawn in colonial times, Iran has been a country going back many centuries. It has its own culture, with beautiful art and fantastic food. There is very great pride in their culture and people.

[hatrack]

10. Clouds of dust; crows and vultures; graves; low-level radioactive releases from bombed nuclear sites . . . .

Holes in the ground, collapsed buildings, crushed cars.

The usual.

[Arazi]

12. Iran Int'l (an expat paper in London) reporting Iran's leadership has contingency plans to bolt

Got this off Bluesky from Mark Chadbourn, a NatSec source I trust. He’s got his settings so his posts won’t show if a user isn’t online and following him so this is just a copy/paste

“The top aide to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Ali Asghar Hejazi, is negotiating with Russia for a possible escape route for regime leaders if Iran’s situation worsens, Iran International reports.

Moscow has promised a secure evacuation.”

Those fuckers can go stay with Assad in Russia 😈

[AZProgressive]

13. Iran had a functioning Democracy

They elected pretty much their version of a Bernie Sanders who wanted to kick out BP and nationalize oil production so the US under Eisenhower (Truman was against a coup of Iran--he actually liked the leader of Iran at the time) mainly for British interests which is all detailed in the book All the Shah's Men. Ever since Iran kicked out the US allied dictator they pretty much had far right hardliners the kind of people that are not pushovers like the leader of Iran before the US did a coup.

They could do a regime change but that has already been done before which has led to the consequences we are faced with now.

9/11 it was a wahabbi terror group that attacked the US and they were facilitated by the wahabbi state of Saudi of Arabia (a rival of Iran) which is actually a US ally. They are a far right sect part of Sunni Islam but we stretched the terrorism label that now we are at war with violent shia groups which are also enemies of the Wahabbi terror groups.

Before fully answering your questions I will simply leave it at we need a real peace deal for the region one they may or may not involve the US. Bring Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and others to the table and recognize the state of Palestine as well as Israel which would be a necessary first step to peace in the region.

On the trajectory we are currently on I don't see any happy endings for any country really.

[Arazi]

14. If Iran gets a nuke and I see no reason why they won't, KSA will 100% follow

And I presume Traitor would give it to them.

I mean that’s the lesson everyone’s learned now right?

To have territorial security you have to have a nuke.

As Ukraine has learned, giving up your nukes in return for a security guarantee (from the US no less), means nothing. You have to have the actual matériel to have real teeth.

[Aristus]

15. Well, could the Israelis start by throwing Bibi out?

I’ve always said, the wrong Netanyahu died at Entebbe.