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Toppling Iranian regime is wishful thinking, says Ehud Barak
https://www.thetimes.com/world/middle-east/israel-iran/article/toppling-iranian-regime-is-wishful-thinking-says-ehud-barak-w388m3rb5-snip-
“The target is the regime. It’s not easy, but together with America it could be done,” Barak said. The problem, he said, was getting a commitment from America to help topple the regime. “The problem is that I don’t think the American president will be inclined — and not just Trump, even his predecessor, would be inclined — to join in. So, it’s probably somewhat wishful thinking, except probably, a one-time shot at the Fordow site, which Israel cannot destroy,” Barak, 83, said.
-snip-
More likely would be a “one-time show” bombing of Fordow, Iran’s major uranium enrichment centre, where centrifuges spin at supersonic speeds burrowed deep in a rocky mountain range — something, it is believed, only an American B-2 bomber would be capable of.
Such limited action might push Iran to negotiate further and compromise on its nuclear programme, Barak believed, although he contended that any gains would merely delay its nuclear plans rather than defeat them.
-snip-
The worst scenario would end with the Iranians breaking out “as fast as they can” towards a nuclear weapon, to be exploded somewhere in the desert, “to prove their capacity”, propelled and legitimised by foreign attacks on their soil.
-snip-
“The target is the regime. It’s not easy, but together with America it could be done,” Barak said. The problem, he said, was getting a commitment from America to help topple the regime. “The problem is that I don’t think the American president will be inclined — and not just Trump, even his predecessor, would be inclined — to join in. So, it’s probably somewhat wishful thinking, except probably, a one-time shot at the Fordow site, which Israel cannot destroy,” Barak, 83, said.
-snip-
More likely would be a “one-time show” bombing of Fordow, Iran’s major uranium enrichment centre, where centrifuges spin at supersonic speeds burrowed deep in a rocky mountain range — something, it is believed, only an American B-2 bomber would be capable of.
Such limited action might push Iran to negotiate further and compromise on its nuclear programme, Barak believed, although he contended that any gains would merely delay its nuclear plans rather than defeat them.
-snip-
The worst scenario would end with the Iranians breaking out “as fast as they can” towards a nuclear weapon, to be exploded somewhere in the desert, “to prove their capacity”, propelled and legitimised by foreign attacks on their soil.
-snip-
Barak's a critic of Netanyahu, but supports Israel's war with Iran - though only if Israel had discovered an imminent threat.
As for the 4 possibilities - Trump would love regime change and would take all the credit for it if it happened, but there's very little chance of that.
Failing that, Trump would probably love a one-time show bombing he'd never stop bragging about.
The 4th possibility is probably all too likely.
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