Iran almost certainly will retaliate against the U.S. But when, where and how?

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

Iran − and its hard-line supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – are almost certainly going to strike back in response to historic U.S. military strikes on three of its suspected nuclear facilities.

But if history is any guide, that response could happen at any time − and anywhere, and in any form, former U.S. intelligence officials and diplomatic experts say.

“Missiles, militias and acts of hostage-taking – that’s their go-to” range of options, the Biden administration coordinator for the Middle East, Brett McGurk, said in an interview June 21 with CNN. “I suspect Iran will have to do something.”

But like others wondering about Iran's intentions, McGurk said he has no idea what the Islamic regime’s next step will be.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/iran-almost-certainly-retaliate-against-134251005.html

[Ritabert]

1. They issued some statement that they knew where the bombers came from

...so whether Iraq, Saudi Arabia or elsewhere I expect they'll try something.

[Igel]

16. Commentary is that since they flew something like 37 hours

that it's in the US.

USA Today reported Whiteman AFB in Missouri.

[Ritabert]

17. Thanks for the link. Interesting.

[Fiendish Thingy]

2. I wouldn't be surprised if Iran takes a cue from Ukraine

Inexpensive hobby drones can be weaponized in many creative ways, and are difficult to defend against, as we have seen in Ukraine’s fight against the Russian invasion.

Cyber attacks are possible too.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

11. If inexpensive drones are used, they'll be used against our bases in the middle east

I got into an argument with another in the WaPo comments section who insisted they could hit the mainland US with such an attack.

[Fiendish Thingy]

19. I guess we'll find out soon enough

These drones can be purchased on Amazon in the US, and fitted with explosives that can be remotely detonated.

I don’t know how sophisticated the munitions Ukraine uses with their drones are, but I imagine the widespread accessibility of gunpowder and ammunition in the US would be easy enough to improvise.

Bases overseas would be sitting ducks for more sophisticated attacks, but don’t worry, Trump has said past attacks only resulted in a few troops getting “headaches”.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

20. Yes I remember Trumps comments on that attack

Brain injuries can be life threatening.

[avebury]

25. My understanding is that the drones that Ukraine used in Russia were actually built and armed inside of Russia. They

put agents into Russia many months ahead of the attack. Once they were built they were divided into trucks and driven somewhere close to each of the attacked bases. Overall, pretty lo tech for an attack. The kind of mission you would expect the Israelis to do.

[Fiendish Thingy]

37. My understanding is the drones were commercially available hobby drones

That were then modified to deliver payloads.

[Metaphorical]

32. Agreed

I can think of a very definite (and schadenfreude filled) attack on Mara Lago from an Iranian oil ship with a smuggled fleet of drones, but the likelihood of that is low. Much more likely that they hit bases in Iraq, Jordan, or Kuwait.

[cachukis]

35. Concur, but pin pricks in the grand scheme.

That is what I expect. Torrents of pin pricks until they get the big one down the road.
Then what?

[newdeal2]

3. Go after his golf courses

That's the only thing Trump cares about in life.

[Celerity]

9. Or daughter-wifey Ivanka

(Image: GETTY )

[kimbutgar]

34. Yuck! 🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮

I can’t unsee this!

[Celerity]

36. it's nightmarish

[DinahMoeHum]

31. His hotels and real estate holdings, too.

n/t

[dweller]

4. Iran requests Joni Ernst to deliver a response

To the American people after the “American Spawn of Satan’s illegal bombing of our sovereign nation “ .
“ We are certain she knows the appropriate words to reassure the American people “





✌🏻

[johnnyfins]

28. Ugh. Please don't remind me of that pig

[EYESORE 9001]

5. Retaliation will occur at a time, a place, and method of their choosing

Asymmetrical warfare doesn’t lend itself to successful guessing on the part of the adversary. Aren’t you glad so many law enforcement resources are out harassing *potential* undocumented workers right now?

[BoRaGard]

7. G.O.P. has stripped America of key Intelligence assets

making our beloved nation vulnerable.

Our enemies are licking their chops as republicons dismantle our protections
to have more money to bless their billionaire buddies with tax breaks.

[llmart]

14. We don't need no stinkin' intelligence assets...

we've got a stable genius making decisions.

[UTUSN]

6. Two weeks. Or, tonight.

[Earl_from_PA]

8. I think it's more likely

That their "response" will be something like their "response" to the killing of Soleimani in 2020.
Lob a few rockets at a U.S. military installation, then call the matter closed.

[DFW]

10. If drones fail or are deemed impractical

Look for a couple of selected suicide bombers driving explosive-laden trucks into US bases/businesses/embassies around Europe.

It they were REALLY clever, they would table their response for about six months, tell no one that they are doing so, and frustrate the hell out of the US intelligence agencies, desperately looking for well-hidden plans that they KNOW have to exist--but don't. Even Farsi-sprakers know that revenge is a dish best served cold. Whether or not they are cool enough or patient enough to wait--THAT is another question entirely.

[MiHale]

12. Hope it shortens trump's timeline...

Made himself a huge target.

[dalton99a]

13. They're supposedly running low on missiles and missile fuel

But there are many ways to retaliate

[Dreamer Tatum]

15. Likely cyberwarfare, as they've done for a while now. nt

[GoCubsGo]

24. Yup. Don't be surprised if that includes taking out the power grid.

And, don't be surprised if they do it to a big city during a summer heat wave.

[roamer65]

18. Oil, oil, oil.

Did I mention oil?

[Emile]

21. I would stay away from buildings with Trump's name on them.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

38. I already do but for different reasons

[Wounded Bear]

23. Isn't it great that we have such a strong intelligence operation?

Oh wait...

[GoCubsGo]

26. And, a strong CDC and Pandemic Response Team, too...

To protect us, should they decide to just send over a few people with some highly -contagious, lethal disease....

We are so fucked.

[Wounded Bear]

29. Yep, but hey! We have the richest motherfuckers on the planet! nt

[Oopsie Daisy]

27. People online are saying that Mar-a-Lago is a soft target.

I think they're correct about that.

[cachukis]

30. Can't imagine it will be large scale. They are on their heels.

Their economy is not very strong with sanctions and all.
Suspect they will slink around and poke here and there. Their society suffers the corral of the Shia mentality in power.
Their proxies have shot their wads. Russia's debt struggles aren't going to help. China's demand for oil might, but we still control shipping lanes.
But we now are back, thanks to Bibi, in the ME with no direction home.

[underpants]

33. Very good summary. I agree.

Well executed but a dumb decision

[misanthrope]

39. Considering Trump has weakened our cybersecurity to the lowest levels in a long time

that would be the Achilles heel. Whether Iran has the resources to exploit it is another matter.