If Dems were solid we'd need about 20 House Republicans

[cthulu2016]

I think the 113th Congress (the incoming, post-cliff Congress) is 234-R, 201-D, so the magic number is 17 Republicans if my math is right.

Rounding it up, allowing for a couple of defections and absentees, the fiscal policy of the United States will be whatever the most moderate 20 or 25 House Republicans say it is.

That might be okay, if there was such a thing as a moderate Republican. But there probably is not.


In any event... we will, in 10 days, be in a situation that requires fixing, and whatever fix can attract 20-25 Republican votes will be the law of the land.

We are well positioned in terms of public opinion, but all that really matters is how public opinion affects those 20-25 Representatives.

(And Big Money will be demanding some sort of action, which will probably be the decisive factor if public opinion doesn't do the trick.)

[closeupready]

1. K&R

[AlinPA]

2. 20-25 moderate republicans? Where will will find even 5 in 2013? Teabaggers rule the GOP.

[BlueStreak]

3. I don't think that is really true. We give the teabaggers way too much credit

They are pawns in the bigger game. I believe there are something like 80 Representatives that are closely identified with the teabagger party.

The problem is that the rest of them, including Boehner, are scared shitless of all the right-wing pressure groups.

It will be interesting to watch. If Obama makes it is clear he is willing to walk away from the table and do nothing after we go over "the cliff", he might be able to create a situation where Boehner has to split with the teabaggers. That would be huge, and if Obama pulls that off, that would be some vindication for all the preemptive capitulation he has been doing.

I don't believe this is Obama's strategy and I don't believe he has the courage or even the interest to do that. But we shall see.

[AlinPA]

4. I don't think anyone in the GOP wants to work with the President on any compromise.

They will be primaried out if they are seen working with the President and that includes Boehner.

[BlueStreak]

5. I know that's what they think. But there is also a sense that

the whole teabag thing is running out of steam. We'll see.

[AlinPA]

6. My point is that there is nothing that the republicans would agree with the President on or even

work for a compromise - including national security. Nothing. Their hatred for him is too great.

[BlueStreak]

7. That is true of the teabaggers. They are a minority of the GOP caucus

The others is just hiding in a corner because they are scared shitless by the right-wing pressure groups. And it is not an unfounded fear.

But the dynamics change dramatically when the likes of Louie Gomert and other teabagging morans wake up on January first to find that the takes have just gone up in a big way and military spending has been cut. They honestly don't seem capable of envisioning that even though it is a certain fact and happens in only 8 days.

I still don't expect Gomert and his band of 80-ish nitwits to go with the President on anything. But there will be a lot of pressure on the GOP to come to the table, and that might be the factor that forces Boehner to split with the teabaggers. Boehner cannot do that before January 3 or else his own job would be in doubt. But once he gets reelected, he might move.

Hopefully Obama has gotten sufficiently tired of Boehner's game playing that Obama sticks to a tougher deal.

[AlinPA]

9. "..Boehner's game playing.." You got that right. He is only playing a game and is not serious

about working with the President. Boehner is no different than Gohmert and the rest of the GOP.

[BlueStreak]

10. There is a difference

Several distinctions, at least, even if they don't add up to a real difference.

1) Teabaggers are all really stupid people. I haven't seen one of them that is at all bright. Boehner is not stupid. He is a political animal trying to balance a lot of competing pressures.

2) Teabaggers have real passion and real core beliefs. They are beliefs based on ignorance and racism, but they honestly believe the things they say and they are really incapable of thinking in terms of compromise.

3) Boehner is playing games, but not just for fun. He is trying to keep his job and he has a lot of masters to please. I'm not sure that changes after the new year.

[tritsofme]

8. Leadership controls the floor

Democrats don't get to float their own legislation and try to cobble together a majority.

Even if these "moderates" were somewhat sympathetic, they wouldn't sign onto discharge petitions.