We need to stop buying into these bullshit polls that have one name against several opponents.
These are bullshit polls and they are meant to demoralize another side. And from some of the threads I’ve seen it looks like some of us are buying into this bullshit.
Right now it seems that if Kerry takes SoS then the GOP is going to go back to Scott Brown. He’s won this election before but Brown had a few advantages that first election. First it was the rise of the Tea Party and even I’ll admit they were a force to be reckoned with soon after the 2008 elections; however, 4 years later their power has subsided greatly. Second the democrats ended up with the worst excuse of a candidate you could fine. I’m sure Martha Coakley could have been a great senator, but she assumed that since she was a democrat in a blue state filling the seat held by a legendary person that just having her name on the ballot was enough to secure the win. Brown got lucky that election.
This is how the polling seems to be working. The GOP pretty much has one name at the top of the list of who will run and since he’s been a senator already he has good name recognition. So they poll him against a couple of democratic names. The pollster knows that as they go thru the list of Brown vs. Candidate A, Brown vs. Candidate B, Brown vs. Candidate C that the person being polled will pick some of those outcomes based on favoritism and knowledge. Basically on one side you have no choice but a certain name whereas the otherside you have the whims and fancy of those being polled as they say ‘yea or nah’ to people they may or may not like or even know.
Basically it’s a very weak polling method but it does work in that the side with the many start to think ‘OMG we can’t beat this guy no matter who we picked – WE’RE DOOMED!!!!’
Over a year ago they did the same polling with Scott Brown vs. Elizabeth Warren and Scott Brown vs a host of other democrats who ran against Warren in the primaries. Every single time Brown came out pretty much favored at Warren looked doomed even though she wasn’t even the nominee at the time.
After the Warren was picked and the conventions were done Warren started surging ahead. In the end she won that race.
Now, I know what you’re thinking – ‘But it was Massachusetts and she didn’t even crush the guy in her victory’
So?
Brown was an incumbent which is always an uphill battle. And Warren had enemies – because of her background in consumer protection against the big banks, there were a lot of lobbyists out there who worked their asses off and spent a lot of money to see her defeated.
I don’t think that a special election will be a walk in the park for the democrats but if we have a good candidate who campaigns even half as hard as Warren did I think we’ll be able to keep the seat
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