In January, it only gets worse for Republicans

[ProSense]

Last edited Sat Dec 22, 2012, 12:50 PM - Edit history (1)

President Obama's hand was strengthened simply by winning the election, but it's further strengthened by the nature of the deficit negotiations.

January is important for two reasons if no deal is reached:

1. The tax cuts expire.
   
   
2. Sequestration ($1 trillion Budget Control Act), which includes $500 billion in defense cuts, automatically kicks in.

The two are linked in the current proposal. The President is saying: Let's pass the tax cuts for incomes under $250,000 and lay the groundwork for reaching a deal later (that's the part to avoid sequestration).

To override sequestration, the deal has to produce at least $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction and be enacted in January.

<...>

The Budget Control Act of 2011 (enacted on August 2 as Public Law 112-25) made several changes to federal programs and established budget enforcement mechanisms—including caps on future discretionary appropriations—that were estimated to reduce federal budget deficits by a total of at least $2.1 trillion over the 2012–2021 period. The caps on discretionary appropriations will decrease spending (including debt-service costs) by an estimated $0.9 trillion during that period, compared with what such spending would have been if annual appropriations had grown at the rate of inflation. At least another $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction was anticipated from provisions related to a newly established Congressional Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction. That committee is charged with proposing legislation to trim budget deficits by at least $1.5 trillion between 2012 and 2021. However, if legislation originating from the committee and estimated to produce at least $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction (including an allowance for interest savings) is not enacted by January 15, 2012, automatic procedures for cutting both discretionary and mandatory spending will take effect. The magnitude of those cuts would depend on any shortfall in the estimated effects of such legislation relative to the $1.2 trillion amount.

http://www.cbo.gov/latest/Budget/Sequestration-Reports

Republicans, like it or not, and despite their House majority, have to deal on the President's terms. A comprehensive deal gets no Republican support in the House.

Republicans don't want the defense cuts to go through and they also don't want the tax cuts for the rich to expire.

If the tax cuts expire, President Obama can confidently propose new middle class tax cuts.

Can you see Republicans pushing to pass new tax cuts for the rich after sequestration kicks in? Can you see them doing it under any circumstance?

[yellowcanine]

1. You forgot. New Senate and House will have fewer Repubs.

Making it even harder for Republicans to block Obama.

[ProSense]

4. That too. n/t

[Indydem]

2. This is such a simpletons position

Long term unemployment - expired
Payroll tax cut - gone
Weekly taxes withheld - rising

And somehow, you believe that republicans in the house are going to pass a middle class tax cut without any concessions in spending or other issues?

What world do you live in??

[ProSense]

3. Where on earth

Long term unemployment - expired
Payroll tax cut - gone
Weekly taxes withheld - rising

And somehow, you believe that republicans in the house are going to pass a middle class tax cut without any concessions in spending or other issues?

What world do you live in??

...did I say that Republicans are going to "to pass a middle class tax cut without any concessions in spending"?

From the OP: A comprehensive deal gets no Republican support in the House.

Republicans aren't going to support anything. They can't. They don't have the votes.

It's possible that they could support the middle-class tax cuts and a kick-the-can down the road proposal, but I doubt it because it still means the tax cuts for the rich expire.

The point is that it gets worse for them in January.

[Indydem]

10. "If the tax cuts expire, President Obama can confidently propose new middle class tax cuts."

Thats where

[ProSense]

11. That says no such thing

"If the tax cuts expire, President Obama can confidently propose new middle class tax cuts."

That has nothing to do with Republicans agreeing to "pass a middle class tax cut without any concessions in spending."

It was to contrast the President's position with that of Republicans after January.

Which is the point following that statement: Can you see Republicans pushing to pass new tax cuts for the rich after sequestration kicks in?

Americans agree with the President on the tax cuts below $250,000. He can present the cuts confidently and call out Republicans for opposing them.

[byeya]

5. I didn't think the cut in the Payroll tax was a good idea to begin with. $500 Billion in War Dept

cuts - I can live with that; so can a lot of innocent people around the world live with that.

[ProSense]

6. The payroll tax cut isn't even included in the scaled down offer. n/t

[Ligyron]

13. Amen to that

[ProSense]

7. Kick for

denial.

[ProSense]

8. Yup, Boehner is in denial

Boehner: Obama’s Fiscal Cliff Plan Would ‘Leave Red Ink As Far As The Eye Can See’http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/boehner-obamas-fiscal-cliff-plan-would-leave-red

I suspect he's just pissed that he has no leverage...among Republicans.

Plan C
http://www.democraticunderground.com/101787799

[JaneyVee]

9. So we avoid the fiscal cliff by creating a new fiscal cliff? Only in DC.

[ProSense]

12. If Republicans accept this deal,

the tax cuts for incomes over $250,000 expire.

If not, the tax cuts expire. The cliff isn't really scary.

[davidn3600]

15. Everything in D.C. these days is kicking the can down the road

No one solves problems in Washington anymore.

Why are we paying these fools so much to do absolutely nothing?

[freshwest]

14. ProSense, appreciate your linking back to this information elsewhere. Or it'd have been lost.

[DallasNE]

16. Republicans Claim They Hold The Trump Card

In the debt ceiling that they can leverage but that may be wishful thinking on their part because Obama is demanding a 2 year extention as part of the "cliff" agreement. In other words, Obama is demanding certainty for the markets which is one of the things Republicans tried to claim last November so how can they argue with their own demands without looking petty.

One thinks that the Hassert Rule is going down the drain as the Speaker will need to deal with Nancy Pelosi to get any kind of deal that the House can pass, that the Senate would approve and the President would sign. Boehner tried to bluff with a 9 high hand and it failed miserably. He still has that same hand only now everybody knows just how bad it really is.

[ProSense]

17. Exactly! Boehner is

extremely boxed in.

When Congress returns from holiday, Boehner has four days to accept the President's offer
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022060906

[TeamPooka]

18. The usual GOP plan "Wait for Democrats to cave in" isn't working for them this time nt

[ProSense]

19. Eight days and counting. n/t