When Prophecy Fails by Paul Krugman

[xchrom]

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2012/12/24-4



Back in the 1950s three social psychologists joined a cult that was predicting the imminent end of the world. Their purpose was to observe the cultists’ response when the world did not, in fact, end on schedule. What they discovered, and described in their classic book, “When Prophecy Fails,” is that the irrefutable failure of a prophecy does not cause true believers — people who have committed themselves to a belief both emotionally and by their life choices — to reconsider. On the contrary, they become even more fervent, and proselytize even harder.

This insight seems highly relevant as 2012 draws to a close. After all, a lot of people came to believe that we were on the brink of catastrophe — and these views were given extraordinary reach by the mass media. As it turned out, of course, the predicted catastrophe failed to materialize. But we can be sure that the cultists won’t admit to having been wrong. No, the people who told us that a fiscal crisis was imminent will just keep at it, more convinced than ever.

Oh, wait a second — did you think I was talking about the Mayan calendar thing?

Seriously, at every stage of our ongoing economic crisis — and in particular, every time anyone has suggested actually trying to do something about mass unemployment — a chorus of voices has warned that unless we bring down budget deficits now now now, financial markets will turn on America, driving interest rates sky-high. And these prophecies of doom have had a powerful effect on our economic discourse.

[LisaLynne]

1. We humans do seem to love our THE END IS NEAR stuff.

It's an interesting take to look at the fiscal stuff in the same light. Maybe doom and gloom comes from the same place in the human psyche.

[Champion Jack]

2. The media is to blame for all this fiscal cliff, doom and gloom, bullshit

[theKed]

3. The discussion at this stage

shouldn't be "how can we avoid the fiscal cliff?" but rather "what can we do with $130 billion a year in sequestration funds to offset the defense jobs that will be lost?"

And thats before another 100-odd billion from the tax cuts expiring. Thats $230+ billion a year for infrastructure upgrades. $230+ billion a year for jobs, for 'entitlement' expansion, for aid to lower classes. Money directly into the engine of the economy to revitalize it. Even when (not if) the middle class cut is reinstated thats still a shitton of money.