Why Putin Does Not Want Peace in Ukraine

[Celerity]

Even America's most Russia-friendly president cannot deliver the ceasefire Moscow's strategic calculations demand.

https://www.socialeurope.eu/why-putin-does-not-want-peace-in-ukraine



Vladimir Putin does not want peace in Ukraine—not even on the exceptionally favourable terms for Russia that Donald Trump appears prepared to impose upon Ukrainians and Europeans alike. For several weeks now, this reality has become clear to almost all informed observers, except, it would seem, to Donald Trump himself, who continues to conduct himself as though Vladimir Putin were negotiating in good faith.

How can we explain the Russian president’s refusal to grasp the olive branch extended by an American president who, even before any formal negotiations commence, stands ready to recognise Russian sovereignty over conquered territories and prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, whilst largely abandoning responsibility for its future trajectory? Several converging explanations illuminate this ostensibly puzzling behaviour.

Putin seeks total Belarusianisation of Ukraine

Firstly, Vladimir Putin possesses little genuine interest in the Donbas and Luhansk regions themselves. These territories now lie devastated, their infrastructure reduced to ruins—as evidenced by the current acute shortage of drinking water. Their economies were dominated by coal mining and largely obsolete heavy industries that will contribute precious little to Russia’s economic future.

Territorial continuity with Crimea and complete control over the Sea of Azov represent significant gains for Russian imperialism. Nevertheless, these acquisitions remain secondary to Vladimir Putin’s primary war objective: gaining control over Ukraine as a whole by transforming it into another Belarus, reintegrating it fully into Russia’s sphere of influence without necessarily requiring complete military occupation.

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