The NBA gambling scandal, explained by an actual gambler

[usonian]

Posted in GD for the enormous size and impact of this scandal.

43 thoughts about the biggest betting scandal in years. Not only is it not surprising, but it looked suspicious in real time.

(Yes 43) It’s very gambling-focused, so perhaps a bit esoteric (for me, anyway, I don’t gamble.) — Usonian

Nate Silver

https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-nba-gambling-scandal-explained

We’re just four days into the NBA season, and there have already been a lot of fun headlines, like Steph Being Steph, Victor Wembanyama looking like an MVP, and a double-OT thriller in a 2025 Finals rematch on Thursday night. But whenever your sports league makes front-page news in the New York Times, it’s probably bad news.


Snip

I have lots of takes on this, informed by my experience covering gambling and being a sports bettor myself. In fact, much of the alleged suspicious activity occurred during the 2022-23 NBA regular season, the year I bet the league every day as part of a sort of experiment/side hustle for my book. After a great start to the season, my trajectory was rocky; I finished in the black, but not by much. Betting the NBA regular season turned out to be a grind, mainly for one reason that also figures prominently in the indictments: the constant ambiguity surrounding star players’ availability due to minor injuries, “load management,” or tanking.

When betting the NBA, a difference of a single point — say, Vegas has the Miami Heat favored by 3 points, but you think they should be favored by 4 — is enough to turn a losing bet into a winning one, or vice versa. But the availability or lack thereof of a LeBron, a Steph, or a Jokic can shift the point spread by 6 points, 8 points, or even more. It is extremely valuable to have inside information about who’s actually playing — the sort of info that the alleged conspirators had.

Without that, your choices are between making a negative-EV bet, sitting the game out, or trying to read the tea leaves of where the insider money is flowing. The detailed notes I kept in 2022-23 show that I often did find something suspicious with betting lines for games mentioned in the indictment, though I didn’t always make the right bets. Sometimes I made the classic gambler’s mistake, being tempted by a line that looked too good to be true — and it was, because the insiders knew something that I and the rest of the public didn’t.

And THEN there’s poker, and an extremely complex array of gadgets to cheat.


Read on:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-nba-gambling-scandal-explained

[genxlib]

1. Thanks for posting this

Very thorough and interesting

Silver has been in and out of favor for a bunch of reasons but this does seem to be in his wheelhouse.

I am just shocked that there is a major sports betting scandal and there is absolutely no mention of the referees