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Devastating population decline predicted in deep red state by 2040 as counties lose up to a third of residents
Areas of West Virginia that used to employ tens of thousands of people in the now-dying coal industry are facing huge population declines over the next 15 years.
McDowell County, once the world's largest coal producer, will lose 32 percent of its residents by 2040, according to grim projections by the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia.
There were 19,111 people living in McDowell County in 2020, when the US Census was last taken. Hamilton Lombard, who leads the center's demographic research group, believes there will be only 13,037 people by 2040.
The county's numbers have already fallen to just above 17,000 as of 2024. It's a far cry from the population of around 100,000 that the county had in the 1950s at the height of the coal boom.
This is not limited to McDowell, as 10 other nearby counties stand to shed tens of thousands of people between them. This will gradually translate into staggering losses in economic production and tax revenue for the state
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15300067/population-decline-2040-west-virginia-mcdowell.html
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BlueWaveNeverEnd
(12,309 posts)
Polybius
(21,239 posts)
fujiyamasan
(1,018 posts)You have to mostly blame these two:
Exactly two hundred years earlier, the framers of the U.S. Constitution, meeting at Independence Hall, had reached a supremely important agreement. Their so-called Great Compromise (or Connecticut Compromise in honor of its architects, Connecticut delegates Roger Sherman and Oliver Ellsworth) provided a dual system of congressional representation. In the House of Representatives each state would be assigned a number of seats in proportion to its population. In the Senate, all states would have the same number of seats.
oldmanlynn
(764 posts)Democrats and owners of businesses that believe in democracy should look at moving companies into those red states and Democrats migrating from other blue states and eventually you have enough Democrats in the state where you pick up those two Senate seats. This is not a short term plan, but it needs to be on the burner as a long-term plan.
RandomNumbers
(19,019 posts)(not clicking the link to that rag)
"Devastating population decline" only makes sense when talking about a species going on a trajectory toward extinction. Homo stupidus is not there (well except for certain technologies we've invented, but in that case it would be catastrophic population elimination rather than "decline" ).
EdmondDantes_
(1,214 posts)Does a school make economic sense if there's only 4 school age kids? If the population of a county can't sustain a doctor's office, local health declines. Water/sewer services, etc.
Once the population drops enough, it becomes a self-feeding cycle. Businesses go under, kids move away. Yeah it's inevitable that populations shift, but it has poverty inducing effects.
Maru Kitteh
(31,075 posts)That’s true in most any displacement situation whether it’s war, disease, natural disaster or economics. Women with children, elderly and disabled. Rinse, lather, repeat.
Depressing but true and also mitigable if human societies decide someday they really want to do that instead of just lamenting it.
OAITW r.2.0
(31,114 posts)Without viable. long term quality employments, this reality won't change.
jfz9580m
(16,200 posts)The growth people will not let go of. They come up with more and more convoluted models to explain away the Idiocracy.
This is tangential to the point of this thread, broadly on the same theme imo.
Any discussion of population is couched in apocalyptic terms as if unless every part of earth is overdeveloped and overpopulated we are somehow on the wrong track.
https://www.currentaffairs.org/news/there-are-many-threats-to-humanity.-a-low-birth-rate-isnt-one-of-them
Homo stupidus is too generous.
BootinUp
(50,672 posts)
Jack Valentino
(4,096 posts)
Melon
(927 posts)Coal is gone and families were working in it generationally. The loss pulls population and surrounding businesses out. The cities don’t have the infrastructure to support larger industry and the population lacks the skill set. You are a generation out from correcting if there isn’t a massive influx of money and training.
Mysterian
(6,093 posts)They continue to vote overwhelmingly for people who rob them, ruin their environment and leave them with nothing.
All due to fearmongering over gays, guns, immigrants and non-Christians.
EdmondDantes_
(1,214 posts)Even though Republicans lie to them, at least Republicans are paying lip service to helping them.
BootinUp
(50,672 posts)Mysterian
(6,093 posts)and ruined their lives because of that. Good point!
I lived in Pocahontas County for 20 years but had to get out.
Melon
(927 posts)They should be sure fire democratic but the same attitudes you see here are what don’t resonate.
“Learn to Code”, shut that door for a past election. They’re stupid will shut future ones.
Mysterian
(6,093 posts)I'm laughing at your notion of these sensitive hillbillies getting their feelings hurt by mean liberals calling them stupid. The majority are willfully ignorant, racist, hateful and gullible. It's guns, gays and god. These people need tough love and need the truth told straight to their faces.
Melon
(927 posts)Mysterian
(6,093 posts)Trump won WV with about 80 percent of the vote. Do you believe a Trump presidency is "to their benefit?"
usonian
(22,749 posts)
underpants
(194,106 posts)My mom’s family is from Huntington. Everyone is Marshall.
When I was in marathon mode we had family events and Herd ballgames. Running anywhere aside from a mall parking lot or down at campus (the salt flats basically) was out of the question. There were no shoulders let alone sidewalks and people weren’t aware of or able to suddenly process a human running against traffic (left side of the road).
I love my WV relatives and we are going to quite a nice Christmas dinner there in a month but squeezing in a 3-5 miler there was a chore.
exboyfil
(18,321 posts)That is where my dad grew up, and I used to walk around there a lot when back to visit the grandparents. Granted it is not running and the sidewalks are pretty old. It also has been a while (20 years).
Tanuki
(16,211 posts)and some of my nieces still live there. I grew up in Spring Valley but attended Westmoreland Baptist Church and graduated from Vinson High School. I'm pretty sure we would know some of the same people!
exboyfil
(18,321 posts)My uncle around 1963. My family moved to California in 1970. My Aunt by marriage has my grandparents house on Hughes St.
Tanuki
(16,211 posts)JI7
(93,023 posts)telling them that was no different than what others are told.
Melon
(927 posts)This was the attempt to win over voters…
JI7
(93,023 posts)but we are to believe this was so offensive they were forced to vote for someone like Trump.
RandomNumbers
(19,019 posts)(maybe that was your point. if so, this post is for others.)
See: H-1B visa program.
At least in my specialty. Like hires like and many of the former H-1Bs who are now managers, twist themselves into knots (when necessary) to justify contract H-1B hires over hiring Americans. Which knot-twisting often isn't necessary because many bean-counters are clueless and easily duped into thinking the contract hires are better for the company bottom line than hiring entry-level and near-entry-level to develop in-house. The big contracting companies have been running H-1B scams for decades.
It is possible that coding in some languages still has a bright future in the US - but as long as the tech bros are manipulating the government (both parties, sadly, but currently the POT - party of Trump - is far worse), the "learn to code" mantra is just a cruel bait-and-switch for people needing to transition to other occupations.
But maybe the answer is to fix the corrupt "high-skilled" visa program. (Note I am not anti-immigrant - I am anti-H-1B and similar scams, because I have seen the corruption and human costs of this program. Up close, for decades. Fixing H-1B would have cross-party support because most of us who see it don't vote on that issue primarily - both parties are bad on it.)
Mariana
(15,610 posts)And there's plenty in there about helping them.
Instead, they voted for the born rich, "coastal elite", life-long New York City resident Donald J. Trump. Did they really believe he would understand their situation, or care enough about them to try to improve it?
ananda
(34,107 posts)It happened to my entire Texas family.
I think it has to do with feeling lower than everyone
else because you're stuck in poverty or a toxic
job like coalmining.
EdmondDantes_
(1,214 posts)Do poor kids who get sucked into joining gangs think that the gang has their best interest at heart or is it that the gang at least short terms offers protection/money/power? At least Trump gave lip service which we haven't been as good at based on how these people vote. Obama talked about there's no red or blue America, but many of our policies have been targeted towards the wealthy. Student loan forgiveness (which I benefited from) for example mostly benefits those of us higher on the economic ladder. It's a hard sell to a car mechanic that their tax dollars should go to student loan repayment to someone making more money and not getting dirt under their fingernails.
You can say that they should vote for us because Trump's a fraud (which is true), but the fact is we lost the working class particularly among whites and have been losing it for a long time. Shrugging our shoulders isn't going to change their voting patterns. Harris did support limiting the requirement of degrees for federal jobs and talking about apprentice programs, but we've spent years saying get a college degree or learn to code while the good union jobs got outsourced, but we have to make it more of a focus. If we don't find a way to reach them, if they don't hear our message, then we're going to continue to struggle. We have a hard road to a Senate majority because we aren't competitive in many states. That also hurts us in the presidential race and in the House. But we need to do more of that down ticket to help build our brand as a party.
Notice how Trump isn't popular on the economy now after winning on it in 2024 while Biden and then Harris were trying to sell the economy was doing good because of the stock market while people were struggling to afford things due to inflation? With a 2 party system, if people are unhappy with one party, they really only have one other option. So yes, people voted for Trump to fix the economy because they weren't feeling us doing enough on it in their opinion.
And while you didn't use the word stupid, there's definitely an implication there that they voted "wrong" because obviously Trump isn't going to care about them, so clearly they got fooled. Notice you didn't actually talk about Harris's policies, just about how bad Trump is. You aren't going to sell people on us without saying how we're trying to help them.
blubunyip
(256 posts)is corporate control of everything, and corporate propaganda. You can talk all you want about Dems vs Reps but the whole system as it stands now is rigged against the people. The whole system exploits us.
JI7
(93,023 posts)are mostly selfish thugs and In have no sympathy for them either. And most into the thug lifestyle supported Trump.
They all vote on bigotry.
Melon
(927 posts)Please. Your world view is so set black and white that you’ll never understand why we are losing the working class. It’s either your view or they’re stupid. Everyone is dumb but me. That the attitude and how you come across. That’s dumb.
JI7
(93,023 posts)Regardless I have little sympathy for people that are racists and misogynists.
Being poor or working class doesn't give them an excuse.
Melon
(927 posts)Tanuki
(16,211 posts)and was one of only a handful of states that went for Mike Dukakis in the 1988 election?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_United_States_presidential_election_in_West_Virginia
JI7
(93,023 posts)
Torchlight
(6,158 posts)and actual policy. The criticisms don't change the taste of mustard; policies do.
Betty Boom
(346 posts)I remember seeing a documentary about the job retraining that coal miners were offered. The number of people that took advantage of it was minuscule because they actually believed that the coal mining jobs were coming back. You can’t fix that kind of stupid.
Happy Hoosier
(9,311 posts)For people who wanted to redevelop the economy there instead of making false promises about bringing coal mining jobs back. Gor what they voted for.
Behind the Aegis
(55,770 posts)There are several "cities", mainly towns, IMO, where there is only one or two major businesses. When those businesses close or relocate or downsize, the entire population is affected. I think there are three "cities" here in OK where there has been steady population decline. This will likely happen as more farms close or downsize too.
hatrack
(64,027 posts)The population of the whole town is about 10,000 and change.
https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2025/11/21/nebraskans-lament-tyson-decision-to-close-lexington-plant-with-3200-workers/
Mordred
(206 posts)Boo1
(72 posts)of why Democrats can't complete in rural America.
"They vote against their interests!"
Or maybe we just don't understand what their interests are.
BootinUp
(50,672 posts)
róisín_dubh
(12,196 posts)I lived in West Virginia for 10 years. My legal US residence is unfortunately still there, though I reckon I’ll make one more trip back and that’s that. I loved it for about a year until realising it is the loneliest, most backward and bitter place I’ve ever lived…and I spent 7 years in Oklahoma.
— people continually vote for politicians who’ve sold them down the river. Current case in point is their abomination of a former governor now junior senator
—they despise outsiders (with the possible exception of Shepherdstown I guess), yet outsiders in places like Morgantown WANT to help make it better
—they despise unions, yet unions tried to protect workers last century and were famous for it
So no, some of us are well aware of Appalachia and rural America and got tired of being treated like dirt as outsiders because our mammies and pappies weren’t from there
Betty Boom
(346 posts)Truly, it’s one of the most beautiful states in the country, but so backwards that nobody wants to move there. And as you said, a very strong suspicion of “outsiders.”
Boo1
(72 posts)Is full of "outsiders" who dont have any problems.
Maybe it wasn't the locals who were the issue.
róisín_dubh
(12,196 posts)But the vitriol towards the city council one year- all of whom were outsiders-was laughable.
The vitriol towards students is appalling.
And the treatment of Morgantown by the state is equally bad.
I lived in Morgantown so good try.
Every college townie complains about the students and every city complains about their city council. Don't act like it's unique.
And as you said, they elected an entire city council that were outsiders. Certainly not shunning them.
Oneironaut
(6,164 posts)If coal is coming back, why has Trump done absolutely nothing to bring it back? Twice?
Coal is (mostly) dead and gone. It’s a dirty form of power that we can never return to as a society. That doesn’t help these people, but, it’s a reality.
Renew Deal
(84,595 posts)
Boo1
(72 posts)Trump would have won it in 2024. 2,608,641- 2,549,704
ProudMNDemocrat
(20,436 posts)Less populace means LESS tax revenues.
But then, Republicans were never that good at Math.
dwayneb
(1,101 posts)Because one thing we know about our system - he who controls the geography controls your fate.
It's the way our short sighted founders designed it. 2 senators per state, and gerrymandering allowed to bias the House.
Point is even if these areas dwindle to near zero, if it's all red they will STILL control those House seats.
Aristus
(71,380 posts)Who’d a thunk it?
Go on, red staters: tell me why living in a squalid shithole is better than living in a place with electricity, indoor plumbing, schools, libraries, jobs, opportunities, things to do, dentist offices, and breathable air.
Go ahead.
I’ll wait…
Norrrm
(3,559 posts)Jenkinjones, West Virginia | How Did This Happen?
oldmanlynn
(764 posts)A long-term plan 20 years maybe 10 but as those people move out, Democrats move in and start fixing up the economy education etc there and then there’s two more senators.
You know how you get rid of this right wing Supreme Court you have more democratic senators.
czarjak
(13,370 posts)S-H-O-C-K-E-R
Kaleva
(40,099 posts)When the copper mines shut down, the exodus began.
Quiet Em
(2,499 posts)that put their lives and well-being in harm.