TN7: Millions Pour In To House Special Election

[SSJVegeta]

Behn’s campaign raised more than $1 million from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12, according to a campaign finance filing Thursday. She spent a little more than half of that during the same period. Van Epps, meanwhile, raised about $591,000 and spent most of it, leaving him with $231,000 in the bank for the stretch run. Behn had about $522,000 on hand at the close of the fundraising period.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna244846

If I had to make a guess, I would put this as "lean Dem." This would be based on a motivated dem base, dem advantage because of the Special election -and superior fundraising (2-1 advantage?? Really??) on a populist message during a prolonged period of discontent.

I'm feeling good about this one.


Math: If Dems win this seat, it would put the math at 216 Dems after the Texas Special next month. Back down to 215 after Sherill resigns to be governor, and back up to 216 after the April election to fill her seat. If Dems somehow could pull of a miracle winning MTG's seat, that puts them at 217 after April to R's 218. This is also assuming there is no credibility to the claims that mass Republican resignations in the house are just around the corner (a rumor I am skeptical of until it happens).

----Current makeup: D 214 R 219 with pending Special elections in TN and TX.----