Can someone tell me how we take both Houses of Congress next year.

[edhopper]

First the House is in complete flux and it will all depend on how various redrawn maps end up. I fear the SCOTUS will give the GOP the advantage, but we really can't say how that will go. Hopefully we can take it.
In the Senate, even winning all four toss up States, the GOP still has a 51-49 advantage plus the VP to break ties.
Sorry, even though America has soured on Trump and the GOP, that doesn't mean the elections will reflect it.

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2026-senate/

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings



If anyone has anything from good sources to show different, I would love to read it.

The reason I ask is everything I have heard here is how we take Congress next year and stop Trump. But without the Senate....

[Fiendish Thingy]

1. The house is a done deal- 20-30 seat pick up minimum, despite gerrymandering

The senate map was always going to be a challenge, but Dems’ odds are improving daily.

Best chances are in ME and NC, but OH, IA (Ernst is retiring), and AK are within the realm of possibility.

Your question was how do Dems win-

IMO, Dems win by running populist campaigns centred on affordability, with a side helping of stability and democracy.

We have the best chances If we primary out the stand-for-nothing-but-politics-as-usual performative centrists, and select candidates who put the people first.

[WarGamer]

2. If it's a big wave I can see us taking 50-51 in the Senate...

It's unlikely but depends on reduced GOP turnout.

[WENSTJDON]

3. Nebraska might vote for Osborn,

who is an independent. I read somewhere that he said he wouldn’t caucus with either side. That would be better than another R vote.

[Wiz Imp]

4. This site has Democrats at 62.5% of taking House (which I believe is way too low)

https://www.racetothewh.com/senate/26#google_vignette
Chances of taking the Senate are currently at 35.6%. Both numbers for Democrats are increasing fairly rapidly.

North Carolina Senate should not really be considered a toss-up at this point. Cooper currently has a 75% likelihood of winning. An Ossof is given a 77.1% chance of winning. Democrats currently lead by16% in Michigan and 22% in Maine. At this point, the closest race is Ohio where Brown trails by 10%. (Note those percentages are likelihood of winning, NOT poll numbers.)

So Democrats are already in excellent position to get to 49 seats. As time goes on, and Trump economy continues to get worse, I believe Ohio will swing in Democrats favor as well. That means they need just 1 more seat to gain the majority. Texas, Alaska & Iowa Currently are all rated at about a 25% chance for Democrats. I believe all 3 will continue to trend toward Democrats as time passes. Democrats probably only need one of them.

Yes, odds are still against the Democrats taking back the Senate. But check back in 2 to 3 months. I'm confident their chances will look much better.

And as for the House, there are many Republican House members who now think there is a really good chance that Democrats will retake the majority BEFORE the midterms next year as numerous members may follow MTG in resigning.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

5. Dems would need at least 52 senators to call it a majority.

There is one Dem whose reliability is questionable.

[edhopper]

6. Yeah

Fetterman is taking over for Manchin.