I hope nobody is feeling bad about the TN-7 result

[EarlG]

This is the kind of win that will leave the GOP sweating. In a deep red district, the Democratic candidate did 7 points better than their predecessor one year ago (45% vs 38%). Meanwhile the Republican candidate did 6% worse than their predecessor (54% vs 60%). If that swing is repeated across the country next year, it will be very bad for Republicans. And I put it to you that the mood of the citizenry is not going to improve in favor of Republicans over the next eleven months.

[ms liberty]

1. I know you're correct, but my heart wanted more. Tomorrow I'll be happier!

[RandySF]

2. I care more about Miami next week.

[CousinIT]

3. Nope. She lost by single digits (so far). In a 22-point Trump district.

She kicked ass. The repugnants had to spend more money there than they ever should have had to.

That race was closer than they ever would have thought.

[2naSalit]

4. I would have...

Preferred she take the seat but, as you said, this is still a win of sorts. I'll take it.

[unblock]

5. This forces them to spend more to defend "safe" districts.

Thereby diverting funds from other races.

This helps us nationally more than it might appear.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

6. I'm not feeling bad, this is a deep red district, just the fact that she lost by single digits is a win,

the repubs must be sweating about now, but they're not going to admit it and Pedonald will tout this as the greatest win ever, except, of course, his win in 2024.

I'm looking forward to 2026, IMO, the repubs are headed for a wipeout of monumental proportions.

[KS Toronado]

14. I also see a monumental wipeout coming for Rs in the midterms

our only obstacle will be DiaperDon wanting to call the elections off because he sees us taking
control of both Houses and the un-Supremeos will back him up. Heaven forbid if that happens.
We better have a game plan in place in case we need it.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

22. Can you even imagine the protests that would erupt across the country if Pedonald or the

Unsupreme Court tried that shit?
The civil disobedience would make the NO KINGS rallies look like a picnic in the park.

As we used to say in Vietnam, "Saddle up, Lock and Load."

[Skittles]

23. imagine if a Dem prez ever won on electoral votes only (not the popular vote)

repukes would lose their collective minds

[Freddie]

28. If that ever happened the Electoral College would be gone in 5 minutes

It almost happened in 2004 Bush v Kerry.

[Skittles]

30. well now their hacks on the Supreme Court would just "pick their guy"

you know, like they did with that fucking moron Dubya

[KS Toronado]

26. Yep, huge protests

Remember he's already said we might not have to vote in the (future, 2028, midterms), whichever term he
used there, plus he's said if we're at war there would be no elections. We know he'll lie, cheat, steal, whine
to get things going his way, we better be prepared for anything.

[KS Toronado]

34. Found it, he was talking 2028 but he could mean 2026 also

Link to tweet

[MarcoZandrini]

36. Only you....

….can ensure that we Dems squash the Reptilicans next November. VOTE BLUE!

[rampartd]

29. they may be dimmymandering themselves out of power

their great grok wants to redistrict the red states based on a 2024 that no longer exists.

[tinrobot]

48. The states that redistrict to get more seats might be in serious trouble.

Typically, you get more seats by cutting the margins closer. For example, a 15-20% favorable district might drop to 10% in order to give more voters to the district next door.

Those tighter margins are also an Achilles heel. If the electorate shifts by a huge margin, they could lose more seats than they hoped to gain.

[Klarkashton]

7. It s been non stop "far left candidate" while that

Maga shit ass gets the respect treatment.

[kellytore]

8. Next year the GOP will be spending money

in races that they did not intend to. They will not be able to compete in tight races that they need to win. I can't wait to see Jeffries as Speaker of the House.

[SSJVegeta]

9. Let us all look forward to The Great Dummymander of 2026

It will be a wonderful time.

[Fiendish Thingy]

10. This 13 point swing towards the Dem candidate will have republicans shitting bricks until next November. Nt

[orangecrush]

11. Thanks EarlG

[mountain grammy]

12. Thanks EarlG

[Xolodno]

13. My wife was mad about it.

Until I explained that we basically had no chance. But for it to be this close in a blood red district, it doesn't look good for the GOP next year. I think we are going to see more "retirement" announcements soon. Why work hard when you already know that you will lose.

[spanone]

15. K&R

[progressoid]

16. Think of how much money they will have to waste just to hold on to the safe seats

[SouthBayDem]

17. And that district is stupidly drawn too.

In past decades, Nashville used to be united in its own district. Nowadays it got cracked into an R+10 district with many places far more conservative.

[Emile]

18. We need more candidates just like her.

She ran on a Bernie type platform in a very red district.

[LilElf70]

19. I am totally bummed out

Earl - Love ya - I totally get your points. And I certainly hope we can win the goal in the end next year.

However, with the total under performance of the GOP this year with Trump and his lawless corrupt cronies, I feel that people in this country don't have a clue as to what is about to happen next. A loss is a loss, and a win is a win. We need every win we can get. Winning tonight would have been HUGE! But it didn't happen. Shame on me for being positive.

How anyone can go into that voting booth and vote for a GOP candidate is just unbelievable to me. Our democracy is on the line here, and to me obviously these people just don't give a shit.

I am just so sick and tired of the constant bullshit and lies from our current administration, I could cry. And it's obvious no one on the right could care less what our country will look like for our kids and grand kids. What a total disappointment.

But ya know, tomorrow will soon be here and we can put this all behind us. I refuse to let this get me down.

I'm sorry. Rant over. I had to vent somewhere. It's insane what we are witnessing, over and over again.

[BootinUp]

20. I've spent more time thinking about a reply than it warrants already, lol. (its just a special election).

[Boo1]

21. If we are in a D+13

environment in November '26, it's going to be a wipe out. Democrats will take districts that Republicans tried to gerrymander mid-decade.

[kacekwl]

24. It is amazing to me in our

current circumstance that Republicans get any votes at all. They really are stupid.

[Skittles]

31. you got that right

repuke propaganda runs deep in America, to the point where a lot of people pledge their allegiance to the GOP, *NOT* America

[Stargleamer]

25. A chart showing how well we did

👀👀👀👀

— Kevin Morris (@kevintmorris.bsky.social) 2025-12-03T03:04:37.045Z

[elleng]

27. I'm sure that some of us are.

Thanks for being here.

INSTEAD, Five years after disappearing from the platform, The West Wing returns to Netflix
— and it lands with the force of a cultural reset. Sorkin’s soaring dialogue, Bartlett’s moral fire, and CJ’s unshakable conviction feel almost startling in today’s fractured political moment. Fans craving clarity, heart, and idealism are already flocking back, calling the re-release “exactly what we needed.” And with murmurs of a modern reboot echoing through Hollywood, this binge might be a prelude… not an epilogue. Revisit the pilot — its energy still pulls you in like a gust through the Oval doors.

[peacebuzzard]

32. Even Al Gore could not win TN.

Far too many right wingers. Most are from the outlying counties where illiteracy is pervasive.. District 7 is a huge swath of land primarily; employers in this area control the voting trend. I have actually worked in the Tennessee counties a couple of decades ago. Democrats had a very hard time finding and retaining jobs; you could not keep a job if your heart was blue. I was independently employed at the time and had a hard time gaining access to certain areas where I had assignments and would have to go through the employer's main office. It was very often that they would be highly suspicious of me based solely on my non-regional accent and overall appearance. Sad.

[Pachamama]

33. Not at all

I see the results as really great news and I think a sign of great change and things ahead

[Vinca]

35. It was the expected outcome. The GOP loves to vote against their own self-interest.

[Prairie Gates]

37. Unfortunately, I think it shows us exactly what the gerrymanders will produce

This is a classically gerrymandered district: it splits Nashville into four parts and overwhelms each part with rural and conservative areas. This is exactly what they're planning for Indianapolis, for example, which will lose two Dem reps based on a district gerrymandered in precisely this way. What this vote shows is that such gerrymanders are still very successful: the rural areas went heavily for GOP, and the suburban areas went GOP as well (granted, that's in TN, but still).

This race is proof of concept for the gerrymanders ongoing throughout the country: even with Trump's steep drop in popularity, the GOPs can still pull out elections by 10% based on their district fixing tactics. It's bad.

[Timeflyer]

38. Thanks, EarlG.

[dsc]

39. This result would have flipped one CD in NC

and two others would have been within a point. (we would have been 9/5 GOP with the two close ones getting us to 7/7). But we would have picked up 6 State Senate Seats (30/20) would be (24/26) and 18 State House seats (59/41) would be (41/59). That would give us control and we could undo the gerrymandering.

[SSJVegeta]

40. From your keyboard to God's ears.

[Jersey Devil]

41. Hope I'm in one of the Dem CDs

I'm in CD-1 in Goldsboro

[dsc]

44. Maybe

I used the old map (and under that Davis won his district (1) ad Murphy would have easily survived. Under the new map, you and I are both in Murphy's district and it would be very close with that result but he likely would win, but Davis almost certainly would win. Davis won by 2 in a district what was plus 2 for Trump, it is now plus 14 so he would be -12 but that is +13 making it a plus 1 for Davis.

[Tom Rinaldo]

42. Republicans have an instinctive belief that moderate Democrats pose the biggest threat to them

They can't help themselves, because they assume that the vast majority of Americans (outside of urban NY, MA, and CA) reject any "leftist" candidates as too extreme. They buy their own rhetoric. So they look at the Democratic candidate in that Iowa race belonging to the progressive wing of the Democratic Party as proof that Democrats could have done better with a more "mainstream" moderate candidate running instead.

That's their mindset, not mine. However given that mindset, i bet a whole lot of current Republican congressional reps are damn fearful a more "typical" Democratic candidate would run even stronger against them in the midterms.

[surfered]

43. I feel bad for the candidate. Campaigning surely takes a lot of a person.

[MineralMan]

45. I expected it, but hoped against hope that we'd win.

Lots of that going around these days, I think."

Still the trend appears to be going our way. That's a good sign.

[Lars39]

46. I understand what you're saying,

but it is so discouraging to live here as a Democrat, and I’m not even in that district.
I truly hope the momentum can be encouraged and furthered for the Democrats that do live in that district.

[Alice B.]

47. I needed to hear this.

Because, against reason, I was feeling bad.

[Bengus81]

49. To all the idiots that voted for Van Epstein your going to lose your ACA.

Reminds me of Kansas and the 65% or more that always vote for people who don't give a flying fuck about them.

[kentuck]

50. And it is only going to get worse...

...in my opinion.

It is not a good trend for Republicans.

[dem4decades]

51. Never had any hope for a win, those red states would rather vote Republican than actually improve

Their lot in life.

[kimbutgar]

52. No it was a was a long shot and with all the money at the last minute the the outrageous 24/7 ads I'm not

Surprised but as things get worst in this reign of terror of the sleepy orange piggy the margin will be lower in November 2026 and could result in a repuke lost in this district.

That said, I hope someone analyzes the voting for some tampering/mischief.

[questionseverything]

58. There is absolutely no way to check for tampering or mischief

The voter picks choices from the machines menu, the machine transfers that choice to a side roll of paper 🧻, which you can view and then confirm your vote. The trouble is no human being ever counts those votes, the machine does, machines made by conservative businessmen….what could possibly go wrong

[lees1975]

53. I don't think a lot of people realize how gerrymandered this district was, in a red state.

There are not a lot more districts as deep red as this one anywhere else. This one was not only supposed to keep Republicans in the seat, but it was supposed to be a district where they wouldn't have to spend any money to win it. They wound up spending what they would normally spend on a competitive seat, and they sent in the big guns, including Trump, which probably contributed more votes to the Democrat than the Republican.

It would have been nice to pick off the seat, but I'll take the win that this represents. If Trump's unpopularity causes this kind of a swing in deep red Tennessee, imagine how many seats we will pick up next November.

[BH liberal]

54. Anytime a Trumpsicle wins an election it's bad news for America...

especially when the winner credits Trump for his victory.

[WSHazel]

55. The result if worse for the GOP than just the numbers

This district was a corner of Nashville, then a few modest affluent suburbs, and then just deep MAGA counties. There were not a lot of "swingable" voters in this district, and the Democratic candidate was pretty liberal in a red state, yet the Democrats still picked up 13 points in a reasonably high turnout election. This was not a fluke.

There are going to be a lot more moderate candidates running in more swingable districts in 2026. This kind of move at the Senate level in particular could change a lot, because there will always be more "swingable" voters at the state level than there will be in heavily gerrymandered House districts. There is virtually no way for Republicans to hold onto North Carolina or Maine, and Iowa, South Carolina, Alaska, Ohio, Florida, Kansas, Texas and Mississippi are all in play. All the seats that the Democrats are defending, Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire, look pretty safe.

This dynamic is self-reinforcing, because Democrats can recruit better candidates if the seat looks more winnable.

[KPN]

56. Disappointed, but as usual, you are right Earl ... it's a signbificant positive looking forward.

[Initech]

57. The thing that's disturbing me the most about this election...

Is that it revealed how many people were easily manipulated by Trump and Elon Musk in 2024. Going from 21% to 9% is a huge and insane margin, but all of these voters are swing voters. The 9%? Their minds won't be changed no matter how bad things get.

Democrats have to get better messaging out there.

[JustAnotherGen]

59. 1. Now they have to spend money everywhere

2. Weighing the votes against the very gerrymandered Nashville? She kicked ass.

3. The magapubs are toast.

Every county in NJ moved for Left last month. That includes RUBY red Hunterdon (Tom Kean Jr's district).

Behn's campaign was a success.

Her message hit a cord in the same way Mikie Sherrill's did. Right is right - and - wrong is wrong.

[MustLoveBeagles]

60. I'm over it

I like that a blood red district was competitive for a change.

[pat_k]

61. I'm thrilled she stepped up. No seat, no matter how "red" should go uncontested.

It time to stop with the preemptive surrender mentality.

State parties need our support. You can help! Support Hopium's Audacious Expansion Fund
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopiumexpansionfund

Invest in building strong party infrastructures in five state Democratic Parties - Alaska, Iowa, Florida, Maine, and Texas - that are expansion opportunities for us next year and into the future.

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopiumexpansionfund

The goal is $250,000 by the end of 2025. They are almost halfway there with less than a month to go.

There is also a fantastic interview with Alaska's chair at the link. Simon has other great interviews the "audacious expansion" state chairs, as well as NC's, where the Hopium community has also made substantial investments

[2 Meow Momma]

62. I'll need a couple of days to rest and reflect on data.

The local dem groups, indivisible, etc worked hard and losing is difficult. I’m tired.

Working outside a polling place yesterday, insults were coming at us that were hard to ignore. Yeah, I think a couple of days will do the trick.

Very proud of Aftyn and her talent and uniqueness, though. She has grace and grit. She began her speech at the victory party in Nashville singing Dolly Parton’s 9 to 5! She really is good at politicking!

[Torchlight]

63. From my chair, she overperformed in a district that elected trump by a 20+ point margin

If that trend holds true, Blue Waves and Noah's Flood are drops in the rain compared to the potential of the midterm results.