Notes from a business call this morning. Venezuela

[Melon]

I had a business call with a large business owner in Venezuela and a few other individuals in Latin America ( Guatemala, Argentina).
I would consider this person well connected.

His comments on the situation( just a few minutes of the call)
Much of the air defenses were unmanned. He said it was known immediately as it started what was happening and nobody wants to die for Maduro.

Insiders were obviously paid off.

Maduro didn’t trust his own military. He was protected by Cubans sent from Cuba. Many of his personal guards were Cubans. They were quickly killed by US forces.

Mexico connection…he said drugs were shipped Colombia to Venezuela or direct from Venezuela. Venezuela used their diplomatic planes to deliver to Mexico unchecked by security.

Everyone from Latin on the call were very happy Maduro is gone.

This is one man comments from Venezuela. Take it for what it’s worth. I would consider him well connected and in a trade that gives him some visibility.

[AZJonnie]

1. Sound right except his "Mexico connection" is practically verbatim out of the DoJ's recent indictment of Maduro

Not defending Maduro or putting it past him, but there is very much a non-zero chance that this person is quoting the US indictment rather than having actual knowledge this was going on.

[Melon]

8. I don't know. I haven't read the indictment so I didn't

Have a basis to question him on it or take his comments as suspicious. For me they were just comments but from someone in country.

[AZJonnie]

12. I totally get it and sorry if it came off as me questioning your reportage in any way

as this was not my intent. You stated all the appropriate qualifiers and then some, I for one always appreciate that

I was just providing additional context

[Melon]

13. Thanks. I was just considering erasing the entire thing

Once again, just comments. I probably shouldn’t have posted them at all as they are nothing more than anyone else’s comments or opinions.

[Boo1]

2. It was clear

that no air defense was being mounted. Chinooks flying low over the city untouched was a pretty big give away that the Venezuelan MIlitary wasn't planning to even defend Maduro.

The entire operation could have quickly gone sideways had one of those birds went down and I seriously doubt SOCOM is going to risk a bunch of teir 1 operators unless they are certain those guns were going to stay quiet.

[AloeVera]

3. Not true they were unmanned. They were jammed, disarmed or destroyed.

Before helicopters entered the Venezuelan airspace, US forces worked to blind and disrupt the country’s defenses using a combination of cyber and electronic warfare tools.

US officials suggested that large parts of Caracas lost power at the onset of the operation, an effect attributed to the targeted disruption of infrastructure supporting military observation and command systems. The blackout coincided with the opening phase of air operations, reducing visibility and coordination for Venezuelan forces.

At the same time, US Navy electronic warfare aircraft were used to suppress Venezuela’s Russian-made air defense systems. Radar-jamming platforms flooded the electromagnetic spectrum, forcing air defense radars to either shut down or expose themselves. Once active, those radars were targeted by AGM-88 High-speed Anti-Radiation Missiles, weapons designed to home in on radar emissions and destroy them. This suppression of enemy air defenses created a temporary air corridor into Caracas.

https://interestingengineering.com/military/us-tech-venezuela-maduro-capture

This article explains all those things you attribute to a willful lack of defense by the Venezuelan military. Not so. They never stood a chance.

[Boo1]

5. You can believe anything you want

There are plenty of options for anti-helicopter defenses without radar or power. They didn't use any because they didnt want to.

[AloeVera]

14. As can you. Believe what you want.

We can even express those views - at least for now. Having facts at hand help convince others, though. Or not...

[David__77]

4. I wonder if that business owner supported the right wing coup in 2002.

[Prairie Gates]

6. Give me a break

I also talked to my Venezuela person and they also parroted Fox News talking points.

[Melon]

7. I didn't consider any of this "right wing " talking points

These were just his comments. Once again, take them for what they are, one person comments. I’m not sure why any of them are right or what be attributed to “talking points”. I highly doubt they have Fox and I don’t watch that channel.

[Prairie Gates]

9. ...

[BannonsLiver]

10. I guess he'll see it all sorted out in their impending civil war.

[In It to Win It]

11. I live in South Florida. I do business with a lot of Cubans and connected people from South America

including Venezuela.

They are all happy and giddy about this, and about the prospect that the Trump administration will do the same for Cuba. If you want to win over Florida Hispanics politically, apparently, regime change is the way to do it.

As a person who is not of any kind of Latin American descent but a southern black-American, I couldn't be more indifferent to any of that.

[AloeVera]

15. "Large business owners" and "well-connected"....hmm...I BET they're happy....

I doubt the poor of Venezuela are either happy or hopeful. They and their grandparents have seen this movie before.

[Melon]

18. I don't have contacts with the truly poor.

That’s how it is I guess. My contact are business. I’ve spoken to many South Americans. I’ve yet to speak or heard anyone say one negative thing about Maduro being captured. Although I don’t speak politics with most, I don’t believe these are Trump supporters at all.

[BootinUp]

16. Are the Venezuelans like this man of the opinion

That the old regime will soon fall, be replaced or have they not thought that far ahead?

[Melon]

17. I just didn't push deeper.

The purpose of the call wasn’t current events beyond that it would allow business between the two countries again. Everyone I’ve spoken to in the region was happy Maduro was out. These are not Trump fans.