We ran high-level US civil war simulations. Minnesota is exactly how they start

[babylonsister]

We ran high-level US civil war simulations. Minnesota is exactly how they start
Claire Finkelstein
Developments in Minnesota closely mirror a scenario explored in a 2024 exercise conducted at the Center for Ethics and the Rule of Law at the University of Pennsylvania, which I direct
Wed 21 Jan 2026 06.00 EST

snip//

As public outrage grows, ICE has escalated its actions, increasingly engaging in what appear to be random acts of violence regardless of immigration status. Governor Walz has placed the Minnesota national guard on standby to support local law enforcement, while Trump has threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act – an extraordinary move that would grant him sweeping domestic military powers and potentially sidestep recent supreme court limits on the use of federal troops in law enforcement. One thousand additional ICE agents have been sent to Minnesota, suggesting that Trump is essentially using ICE as a specialized paramilitary force to target protesters and suppress dissent. And the Pentagon has readied the army’s 11th Airborne Division – roughly 1,500 active-duty soldiers – to back up the president’s threat.

This scenario closely mirrors one explored in an October 2024 tabletop exercise conducted by the Center for Ethics and the Rule of Law (CERL), which I direct, at the University of Pennsylvania. In that exercise, a president carried out a highly unpopular law-enforcement operation in Philadelphia and attempted to federalize the Pennsylvania’s national guard. When the governor resisted and the guard remained loyal to the state, the president deployed active-duty troops, resulting in an armed conflict between state and federal forces. While the location and sequence differ, the core danger we identified is now emerging: a violent confrontation between state and federal military forces in a major American city.

While our hypothetical scenario picked a different city and a slightly different sequence of events, the conclusions we reached about the possibility of green-on-green violence are directly applicable to the current situation. First, none of the participants – many of them senior former military and government officials – considered the scenario unrealistic, especially after the supreme court’s decision in Trump v United States, which granted the president criminal immunity for official acts.

Second, we concluded that in a fast-moving emergency of this magnitude, courts would probably be unable or unwilling to intervene in time, leaving state officials without meaningful judicial relief. State officials might file emergency motions to enjoin the use of federal troops, but judges would either fail to respond quickly enough or decline to rule on what they view as a “political question”, leaving the conflict unresolved. This is why Judge Menendez’s ruling is so critical: it may be the last opportunity a federal judge has to intervene before matters spiral completely out of control.

more...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/jan/21/ice-minnesota-trump

[orangecrush]

1. This is exactly what Russia wants

[yardwork]

10. All of this is what Putin wants.

Chaos, loss of American global leadership, destruction of NATO, shredding of alliances, a sea passage in the Arctic for oil transport, destruction of efforts to replace oil as a global source of energy.

Every bit of it is Putin's strategy for global dominance and ultimate power, and it's no secret that Krasnov has been his tool for decades.

Trump is a madman but he's the tool of a smarter madman.

[JustAnotherGen]

16. Because Magapub Voters and Politicians

Have grievances and white supremacy in their hearts . . . this is where we are at.

Something has to break and break soon.

[yardwork]

18. Yep.

Grievances, biases, bigotry - and not just on the right.

I can't imagine a starker more obvious choice in 2024 but way too many Americans didn't see it.

[PatSeg]

24. "The tool of a smarter madman"

That sums it up very well.

[orangecrush]

26. And they let this happen.

[Jim__]

2. A civil war may be preferable to living under the thumb of Trump and his bloody militias.

[Cosmocat]

4. Unfortunately they pretty clearly

will come out on top if this situation were to play out at this point. And, while he is going to get there one way or another fairly soon anyways, is a clear escalation toward full on authoritarian rule.

Walz was in a no win situation.

He / Minnesota would not be able to win a conflict with the the federal government, lots of his people, troops and civilians would get killed and they would be subjected to full on federal suppression, and it would be the pretense for DT to amp things up overall.

[OldBaldy1701E]

17. Yeah, pandering to the oligarchs and their army will work out much better. (n/t)

[CozyMystery]

3. A recent book on the subject by an expert:

Thank you, babylonsister, for posting this. I've read what you posted, and after typing a few words of my own, I'm going to read the article.

I have a book to recommend and a few things to say about the subject of civil war here in the US. I hope you all don't think my remarks are stupid. They may be - I am not all that educated about civil wars, but I did read and understand the book I recommended. If I'm correct, and hopefully I'm totally wrong, I will be front and center to do whatever I can if there is a war. I'm old, but I'm smart, strategize well, and best of all, I am invisible and I don't care if I die defending my country.

How Civil Wars Start and How to Stop Them, by Barbara F. Walter. IIRC, chapter 8 discusses the situation in the US -- and that was before everything escalated lately. I read the entire book and I was impressed.

She is a professor at The School of Global Policy and Strategy at UC San Diego. She is one of the world's leading experts on civil war, domestic terrorism, and violent extremism. (this is directly from the website, below)

https://gps.ucsd.edu/faculty-directory/barbara-walter.html

I was just came here to DU to say that I think the civil war has already started. And the people doing that firmly believe that the vast majority of folks don't realize it, and won't until it is too late. Kinda like I'm sure the president of Venezuela was surprised to be kidnapped by the US government.

I think a lot of people don't realize it because they are afraid to. I've had more people tell me they don't want to talk about things that are going on.

Meanwhile, I am deeply angry about Renee Good's murder, and I think it's things like that which set off wars. I'm no historian, so it's just what I think.

My daughter moved to France in August, and now she wants to come home. I told her to stay there. I don't want her to come back here. I think she is safer in France, which is ironic because when she left, I was concerned about her safety in France, not here.

My daughter is a staunch socialist or democratic socialist. She will open her big mouth, and I'd rather she not be here to do it because I think ICE would kill her if she got into the middle of things like protests. Which she would.

[Timeflyer]

5. Thanks for the book recommendation. And--glad your daughter is in France. Wish mine was now.

[babylonsister]

6. Thank you for your thoughts and contribution.

I think that was wise advice to your daughter. Until we see how this plays out, I don't think anyone is safe, and I/we are as angry as you are.

[róisín_dubh]

22. I live in the UK

My parents are happy about that at the moment. When I told my mum I was afraid to come home, she said “I don’t blame you.”

I’m a historian, but not of terrorism. I study Latin America, so I understand how dictatorships operate.

[Clouds Passing]

27. The larger media have been promoting imagery of the Civil War for at least the last 25 to 30 years.

Bands like Lady Antebellum, Civil War, movies like Civil War, the chatter on mainstream media about Civil War, the popular imagery of skull and crossbones and other visual images everywhere. I’m sure duers can come up with much more than I have.

The Confederates have quietly taken over many aspects of our lives while we were too busy surviving to notice.

[peggysue2]

36. I certainly empathize with your concerns about your daughter

My oldest son and his girlfriend are in New Zealand on a 3-month+ hike. He called last night and I brought him up to speed on the events here while expressing concern about his return in April. He said if things went truly crazy they would just stay put for as long as possible.

Civil war? Yes, it's quite possible. War with 'libtards' is exactly what the MAGA hoard has claimed it wants.

Of course, the fantasy of a civil war and the bloody, devastating reality are two different things.

Still, I think we need to be prepared for the worst.

Minnesota could easily be the flashpoint because ordinary citizens have demonstrated effective, peaceful resistance and changed the narrative Trump and his goons wanted to project. The videos of Renee Good's execution and the refusal to investigate the incident has turned the argument upside down.

Thanks for the book suggestion; I'll look it up.

[Wednesdays]

43. "...the fantasy of a civil war and the bloody, devastating reality..."

The American Civil War of 1861-1865 was the bloodiest war in U.S. history, dwarfing the casualty numbers of all other wars. The country lost 2 percent of its population to casualties. That doesn't sound like a lot until you compare that to losses during World War II, which was 0.3 percent.

Each one of those 700 thousand represents a life shattered and a family shattered. Hardly a romantic notion.

A present-day all-out civil war would be immeasurably worse.

[bbernardini]

7. I wonder...did the simulation account for Philadelphians being the way they are?

I say this as somebody who grew up outside of Philadelphia, and works there every day. We don't take very kindly to bullshit, to say the least.

[MarcoZandrini]

9. I too grew up...

…outside Philly. I highly recommend that those thugs think (who knew) long and hard about “entering” Philly.

[yardwork]

12. Might be why they started it with Minnesota.

Minnesota has a reputation as a nice state filled with nice people. It's led by a nice governor who was completely outmaneuvered by the reptile JD Vance during their debate.

[peggysue2]

38. I agree

You get Philly riled up? It won't be pretty.

I've lived in the collar districts and worked in Philly. I personally love the city but it's NOT a place to piss off residents with strong-arm tactics.

[OC375]

8. Congress

Get to work. If it comes to war, everyone is going to get a bite of the shit sandwich. Refugee concerns alone would overwhelm most resources with just enough, just in time, as the basis for most modern production and distribution. Everyone will start to starve eventually.

[SergeStorms]

28. "Congress, get to work".

With the lickspittle lackies the reTrumplicans have placed in "leadership" positions in both houses of Congress there's absolutely no chance of that happening. They also stacked the SC with enough right-wing parasites to prevent any hindrance of Project 2025 being fully deployed. And they did it in plain sight while Americans watched "Dancing With the Stars."

[W_HAMILTON]

34. Congress is controlled by the same fascists that would be starting the civil war.

We can't look to the problem to be our solution.

[multigraincracker]

11. At the end of the 18th Century,

Rousseau said this “When the people shall have nothing more to eat, they will eat the rich”.

[yardwork]

14. The French Revolution is not a model I want to follow.

When angry starving people revolt a lot of good and decent people get murdered in the chaos. It doesn't stop easily.

[Mme. Defarge]

25. Personally,

I don’t recommend it.

[yardwork]

30. And you would know!!!

[Wednesdays]

35. Indeed. When the revolutionaries ran out of nobles to guillotine,

...they started cannibalizing themselves. Danton and Robespierre, prolific leaders of the early revolution, ended up on the scaffold.

[BradBo]

13. Trumps on a fast train to make this happen, we've been watching it since the election.

And I suspect the Hegseth will be standing (cowering) right behind hand picked MAGA Generals.
Trumps trying to stop the midterms. (and oh yes, distract from the Epstein Files)
Blame MAGA and MAGA politicians and the SCOTUS.
Thats why Kelly and the others made that video about military troops following the Constitution not the Orange Mousillini.

[Sharma Dreihund]

15. Usually satire at McSweeney's, but this isn't.

https://www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/what-youre-watching-isnt-what-youre-really-watching

[creon]

19. Be careful of what you wish for

You may get it

[ChicagoTeamster]

20. 11th Airborne is Arctic Infantry (Abn) any NG from the Dakotas, Montana etc could go to Minnesota. 11th is for Greenland

[liberalgunwilltravel]

21. Something to consider

Is that regular federal troops would not follow the illegal orders of an insane president and start eliminating the threat of his ICE goons. The ultimate choice made by Regular Army between killing honorable, fellow country men or Trump's SS might might end up surprising the MAGAts.

Also, along the same lines:

From Wall Street Journal Opinion article:
“True, the prospect of Trump’s ordering an attack to seize Greenland is highly remote, and it’s even less likely such an order would come to fruition. It would likely provoke a mass resignation of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in protest of an unjustified attack on a close ally. The U.S. military knows that the ultimate foundation of its power isn’t guns, but America’s moral credibility and shared strategic interests with allies. Only the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs would likely remain in office, and even then only to uphold the sacred principle of civilian control over the military.
The order would spark immediate action from bipartisan majorities in Congress for much the same reason. Polling suggests Americans would overwhelmingly oppose any attack. Mr. Trump would extinguish his political capital in a single moment. The GOP’s already fleeting midterm election prospects would evaporate. The age of MAGA would come to an icy and abrupt end.”

[babylonsister]

37. Not sure about that. I thought the military

and Congress would balk at bombing boats and invading Venezuela, but that didn't happen. I am pretty skeptical the military would do anything but obey.

[Hugin]

23. I have been wondering why Pennsylvania wasn't ground zero for the Insurrection Act gambit.

It’s the logical choice. More purple than blue. They already tried California (too big) and Portland (too something, it was the second attempt there).

Sounds like a Trump intervention.

[sboatcar]

31. Because Shapiro didn't run against him

We have Tim Walz and Ilhan Omar, both people Trump hates. He wants to punish Minnesota for electing them.

[Hugin]

33. I agree.

Those are the only reasons I could come up with too.

[sboatcar]

42. its 48% butthurt, 52% racism

[sboatcar]

29. If its the government vs the people, its a revolutionary war, not a civil war

[Wednesdays]

32. And this comes from the BRITISH press

The USA press? They're more concerned about what Paris Hilton is wearing. Or, it's all the Democrats' fault!

[gulliver]

39. The British are far closer to civil war than we are.

Or, more like, some version of The Troubles...over unchecked immigration and lack of assimilation. It may be that they published this article about Minnesota because they couldn't get away with writing it about England.

[Baitball Blogger]

40. Perhaps Pritzker should call Waltz and have a talk with him.

I agree, Trump is poking and provoking with one idea in mind. The people in Minneapolis need ideas on how to handle this situation without giving Trump what he wants.

[moondust]

41. Are Neo-Confederates in the GOP

behind much of this?

I remember calling it the "Trump Confederacy" back during his first term and suspected he/they would try to re-establish slavery in some form. The super-arrogant, amoral tech broligarchs and other oligarchs would probably support it.

[smithjn]

44. We ran high-level US civil war simulations. Minnesota is exactly how they start

If we read this its interesting to note how similar the situation occurring in Minnesota relates to the exercise completed for the 2024 CERL. It also demonstrates the potential for conflict between the state and federal authorities thats troublesome highlighting just how rapidly a situation can descend into chaos when not alleviated by swift judicial decision making. Of course theres also a degree of consideration for the differing ways in which a crisis might affect operations, such as even something as basic as traveling from location to location, such as Boston Logan Car Service for air travel. What sort of strategies or measures were available for the situation to de escalate if it were initiated in a similar way in the exercise?