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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsBiden gives Republicans one last chance to avoid 'fiscal cliff' (updated)
by Jed Lewison
Today is the GOP's last chance to send the country over the "fiscal cliff" (until next time) and it's looking as through there are two different scenarios for how things play out: either Vice President Joe Biden and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell strike a deal that passes the Senate, putting House Republicans in the position of deciding whether or not to "jump"or Biden and McConnell fail and Senate Democrats put up a Democratic plan for a vote in the Senate, putting Senate Republicans (and potentially House Republicans) in the position of deciding whether or not to take the leap.
According to Politico, the Biden-McConnell talks are making "major progress." In this case, "major progress" is defined as a deal in which the threshold for tax hikes goes from $250,000 for families (which the president campaigned on) to somewhere between $450,000 (Biden's current offer) and $550,000 (McConnell's current offer). In addition, unemployment benefits would be extended and sequester spending cuts would be delayed. A deal would presumably also address the alternative minimum tax as well as things like estate, capital gains, and dividends taxes.
If a deal is reached, it would pass the Senate, but while House Speaker John Boehner has said his chamber would take action on any legislation coming from the Senate, he hasn't guaranteed passagenor has he guaranteed an up-or-down vote. His definition of taking action includes amending the deal as well as rejecting or accepting it. That means even if Biden and McConnell reach a deal that passes the senate, there's no guarantee it will ultimately be adopted.
If Biden and McConnell fail to reach an agreement, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will request a vote on a Democratic plan to extend tax cuts on all income below $250,000 and to extend unemployment benefits. With that fallback, why would Democrats continue negotiating with McConnell for a higher threshold, given that McConnell can't guarantee House passage? I haven't really seen a thorough explanation of that, but my assumption is that Democrats would say that a Biden-McConnell deal would include things like the sequester and would be more likely to pass.
That said, it seems as though with every day that Republicans refuse to take action, their options just keep on getting worseand Democrats need to keep that in mind. For example, while it's possible that McConnell would allow a Republican filibuster of the Democratic fallback plan, if he does that, it would not only be a public relations disaster, it would put the filibuster-reform crowd in a terrific position to put new filibuster rules in place on Thursday when the new Congress begins. And even if McConnell didn't filibuster it, House Republicans would have a really tough time blocking a vote to avoid tax cuts that every Democrat says they would support.
As Laura Clawson wrote yesterday, Republicans had backed down on their demand to included chained CPI in any last minute fiscal cliff deal, saying that they didn't want to appear to be holding tax cuts hostage in order to get Social Security cuts. Two weeks ago, this was something President Obama was offeringbut Republicans summarily dismissed it as insufficient. Now, they are saying it they don't even want to see it happen at all. Apparently, this is what happens when Democrats call Republican bluffs. Hopefully, it's a lesson they are taking to heart.
7:03 AM PT: Jonathan Chait points out that lifting the $250,000 to $400,000 would give up one-quarter of the revenue from the tax increase, so if the number goes up to $500,000, it will have an even bigger impact. He also makes the case that in being willing to negotiate on the threshold, Obama is giving away far too much in exchange for far too little given the weakness of the Republican position. If there is a deal, and the threshold does go up, the key question will be: what did Republicans give up in return? And simply being willing to end the tax cut hostage crisis isn't enough given the likelihood that the GOP is bluffing.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/12/31/1175001/-Biden-gives-Republicans-one-last-chance-to-avoid-fiscal-cliff
Why the hell are the moving the threshold from $250,000?
Fuck McConnell!
Original post updated.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)Old Codger
(4,205 posts)Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, it was theirs to win if they stand tall and stick with the original proposition. They can go over a pretend/phony/mythical "cliff" and fix it next week, a few would get hurt for a short period and be healed quickly or they can show their "strength' and cave in to the bullies.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)Does anyone think this is a good idea?
We already know what's being cut, including the $500 billion from defense. Do it!
Then negotiate the $250,000 tax cuts on its own merit.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)Another update from the DK post:
Dems worried about Biden-Mitch deal. GOP wants only 3-month sequester reprieve, meaning it would expire - yep - at same time as debt ceiling
@GlennThrush via web
If Thrush is right, and the GOP is pushing for three months, Democrats had better laugh in their face. Even six or nine months is ridiculous. Heck, one year probably isn't enough.
Remember, the president already can push back the impacts of the spending cuts, so a very short term extension basically is meaningless. An extension that takes us into the middle of 2014, when Republicans will (a) be past their primaries and (b) be less likely to fuck around because of the mid-terms would make a lot more sense. But anything very short-term should be a nonstarter. Democrats would be crazy to consider it, let alone accept it.
This is all Republicans care about: The rich and the military.
Tell them to go to hell, VP Biden. Please.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)When we hit the debt ceiling in the next few weeks, the GOP will demand cuts to medicare, medicaid and social security. They will even demand Obama scale down Obamacare and he will likely oblige..in the name of bipartisanship.
Ah yes, bipartisanship, where the GOP gets whatever they want even when they get beat down in an election.
flamingdem
(39,313 posts)Can the GOP hold all those programs hostage?
If so Biden must be pushing hard for a deal.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)or the GOP will simply hold the economy hostage yet again and demand cuts to SS, medicare and medicaid. They will probably also demand the defunding of Obamacare.
We hit the debt ceiling in the next 8 weeks or so. The GOP is trying to stall until then.
flamingdem
(39,313 posts)to describe Obama as incompetent. Not sure how this plays into it but the meme was back to Clinton could do it -- negotiate favourable deals -- but Obama cannot.
Jim Lane
(11,175 posts)This is what they did in 2011, creating a phony crisis which was resolved only with the "fiscal cliff" that now has Republicans so concerned.
Obama, as the President who executes the laws passed by Congress, is supposed to spend the money Congress has appropriated. But government revenues won't cover all that spending, so the gap is made up by deficit financing. That comes to an end in several weeks, when we hit the debt ceiling. The GOP has already telegraphed its intention to refuse to raise the debt ceiling unless it gets major concessions on other issues.
I completely agree with Cali Democrat that a debt ceiling increase (or abolition) should be part of the deal. Otherwise, we'll need every bit of the revenue from the end of the Bush tax cuts.
flamingdem
(39,313 posts)and holding the country hostage over the debt ceiling.
Obstructionists have it made in our system.
hfojvt
(37,573 posts)At least the first part has already repeated - or it is very likely to.
Obama has agreed to more massive tax cuts for the rich.
Angry Dragon
(36,693 posts)octoberlib
(14,971 posts)hfojvt
(37,573 posts)"Why do they call you Bones?"
The Big Guy's answer - "Because I tell them to."
Why are they moving the threshold from $250,000?
Because their owners are telling them to.
The Cassandras who have predicted that Obama and Senate Democrats would make a terrible deal are not really gonna take any pleasure in being right.
But considering the late hour and the fact that Benedict Obama does not have to stand for re-election, at least this time, the White House will not release a bucket of lies to explain how good their deal is.
Things are improving a little bit - small steps. Small steps forward.