(TX SEN) Talarico Leads Crockett by 12% -Post Colbert

[SSJVegeta]

Edit: a brand new poll just came out showing Talarico up 52-40 post Colbert (Conducted February 26):

https://www.chismstrategies.com/field-notes/report-talarico-paxton-lead-their-respective-primaries-for-senate


This is the original poll I posted this about:

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/68a237ed87f54c4157d6fcae/t/699fc465ccebdf5f9f4c89e3/1772078181510/TexasDemocraticResults+2.25.pdf

PPP conducted poll show 48% favorTalarico and 42% for Crockett. 10% Undecided.

Poll was conducted February 25

This is the second poll showing Talarico in the lead this month. The other released showed Crockett ahead by 56-44 pre-Colbert. Another showed Talarico ahead by 4 pre-Colbert.

Gonna be quite interesting to see how this turns out. Dem enthusiasm is through the roof...

[msongs]

1. hope they are keeping it friendly more or less nt

[SSJVegeta]

3. More or less...

From what I've seen Crockett has been overtly negative in her attacks on Talarico -accusing his campaign of racism and double talk becaie there is a super pac that has been attacking Crockett and allegedly darkening her skin in ads.

Meanwhile a Talarico supporting super pac has been attacking Crockett, while Talarico uses plausible deniability tl distance himself from those ads. Crockett accuses him of hypocrisy because he claims to not take big money while not actually denouncing the super pac supporting him.

It has become predictably negative...

[msongs]

4. sounds like criticizing the other for what they are themselves doing nt

[SSJVegeta]

5. It's politics... still fairly tame compared to things we've seen in the past

I dont blame either of them as long as it doesnt get much worse. It will be over on Tuesday. A candidate and their supporters will cry -while the other says hurray and everybody will be friends again just in time to lose a statewide Texas race for the umpteenth time in a row.

Then again we are talking about Texas: they practically invented uphill battles. Anything is possible!

[Janbdwl72]

7. It would certainly help whatever Democrat takes Tuesday's primary if

Ken Paxton would win the Republican primary.

He has lots of baggage.

The turnout numbers compared to the past look very good for Democrats with just one day of early voting remaining.

[SSJVegeta]

8. According to the same poll that has Talarico up by 12, Paxton is also up by 12

To me that is the perfect storm needed for a Dem sweep of Texas in November


....really hope they are right!

[pinkstarburst]

15. They're both taking shots at each other

but using surrogates to do it and then making big innocent eyes like, what, no? I'm running a clean positive campaign. I had nothing to do with that...

[RainCaster]

2. I'd be happy with either

[Frasier Balzov]

6. Glad to see electability in November given some weight.

It's Texas!

[JCMach1]

9. Keep in mind, GOP and Independents can vote in Dem primary

If they choose.

I think that makes the outcome even more uncertain.

[SSJVegeta]

10. Thats a bit of a wildcard

One poll suggested that Crockett was getting the support of a surprisingly large number of self identified conservatives.

While the recent polls show Talarico is viewed as the more moderate candidate with the support of moderates.

Its really hard to say what will happen, but considering the recent polls so far show talarico with increasingly large leads, Im fairly confident he likely holds the edge going into Tuesday.

[karynnj]

19. Do you think the Cronyn/Paxton race will mean

fewer Republicans crossing to vote for whomever they perceive weakest? It does look like the Republican race will be extremely likely to go to a runoff. Does that make some Republicans more likely to cross to our primary

[SSJVegeta]

21. I'd definitely suspect that could be the case

Some of even the folks polled have to decide if they really want to risk their preferred candidate losing the nom.

[Happy Hoosier]

18. But then they can't vote in the Republican primary, right?

And they have a hot one this year.

[617Blue]

11. The less I hear about this wasteful lost cause the better. ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ............

[SSJVegeta]

12. Texas basically invented uphill battles.

Anything is possible!

[MustLoveBeagles]

23. So don't even try right?

[dsc]

13. PPP has been incredibly accurate as of late

They were the only outfit which had the NY mayor's race correct and also had NJ correct in terms of margin. I would trust them to be correct.

[SSJVegeta]

14. Im anticipating a 4% margin as well. Give or take.

Itl depend on how many Republicans crossover for the dem primary and who they ultimately prefer.

Will they choose a candidate because they genuinely think they are better, or because they think they are easier to beat?

[pinkstarburst]

16. Yup! Should be interesting!

[Quiet Em]

17. I cannot find a direct link to the PPP poll.

I went to the PPP site, I went to polling aggregate sites, I can't find it. Where did you get that link?

[karynnj]

20. Thune is warning that the seat could flip if Paxton defeats Cronyn

I wonder if that could make the Republican primary hotter and lessen the interference in the Democratic primary.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/5758488-john-thune-texas-senate-race-democrats/amp/

[LetMyPeopleVote]

22. The Polling in the Texas Democratic Senate primary is all over the place

While I have already voted for Talarico, I would be very happy to support Crockett if she is the nominee. Texas Democrats are blessed with two amazing persons running for this seat which is why the polling has been all over the place.

Link to tweet

I thought our 2024 MD senate primary had some of the worst polling but TX you are the winner hands down. I really have no clue who will win on Tuesday and I am okay with that.

One or none of these polls got it right, I never seen no shit like this 🤷🏽‍♀️

Here is the latest average of the polling

Link to tweet

These numbers are all within the margin of error and so I would not be surprised to see either candidate emerge as the nominee. Again, Texas Democrats are blessed with two amazing candidates and we will be fortunate to have either candidate be our nominee to run against hopefully Paxton.