Learning about the Texas primary

[Pototan]

Last edited Fri Feb 27, 2026, 07:27 AM - Edit history (1)

Texas has a nonpartisan primary system. Any voter can choose to vote in either primary. Registration is only designated by primary precipitation. Democrats out number Republicans by 2 million voters.

https://independentvoterproject.org/voter-stats/tx

So, that means that the out pacing by the Democrats so far, in the early voting seems to favor Talarico, since he can appeal to a more moderate voter who may often vote Republican. Those voters are NOT barred from voting in the Democratic primary, as would be the case in many states.

I am just learning about this system, and it may have quite a bearing on the outcome on Tuesday.

https://texas2036.org/posts/texas-primaries-101-how-they-work-and-what-to-expect-in-2026/

[Trueblue Texan]

1. Pretty sure the Rethug strategy is to...

cross over to the Dem primary and bolster Jasmine Crockett because Talarico looks so electable they are scared to death of him. I love them both and will support either in the general.Both Crockett and Talarico have made personal appearances in our town--it's very interesting how so many more state wide candidates have come to our community this cycle. It could just be that Dems actually have some hope of winning after 30 years of disastrous policies under Republican rule.

[Pototan]

3. I don't think so

I think that the system allows the voter to choose, in this case, among the 5 top candidates in the two primaries.

If a Republican is voting strategically, he or she would vote for Cornyn, as Paxton weakens the Republican chances.

I would agree with you if Cornyn was running for reelection unopposed, then the perceived weaker Dem candidate may be considered. But in this case, a Republican voter looking forward to the General Election needs to knock out Paxton.

I also think you overlook the double digit unfavorable for Trump. As a result, those Dem voters are looking to flip this state.

There are 4 choices for a voter, as I see it. If you are a MAGA Republican, you're taking a Republican ballot and voting for Paxton. You're not risking voting in the Democratic primary for someone you don't like, while your kindred spirit in in a close fight on your own side. If you're a moderate Republican looking to save the Senate seat, you're voting for Cornyn. If you're a moderate Republican or Moderate Democrat who wants to send Trump a message, you're voting for Talarico. If you're a Progressive Democrat and want to send Trump and the Dem leadership a message, Crocket is your candidate. I don't see crossing over for strategic reasons when there are such diverse choices in very close elections

[pinkstarburst]

5. People vote for lots of reasons

But I see zero motivation for why republicans would be voting for Talarico *at this point.* Independents, sure. He has a lot of appeal with independents.

But republicans are definitely going to cross over and try to get Crockett through to the general. There is zero chance that red state Texas is electing a Black woman and everyone (except apparently posters on DU who aren't from Texas and are pushing this idea so hard) knows it. They saw what just happened with Taylor Rehmet, a blue collar democrat who just flipped a "safe red" Texas State Senate seat. With the right candidate at the right time, they could be in real trouble, and Talarico, especially if he's running against sleazy Paxton, could give them a run for their money.

[Pototan]

6. There are 2 million more Dems in Texas than Reps

I know, I couldn't believe it either.

But if you look at my OP and click on the first link, it's all there.

[pinkstarburst]

10. It also seems like you don't understand how our voting system works

I think that the system allows the voter to choose, in this case, among the 5 top candidates in the two primaries.

This is not how voting works in Texas. You can vote in the democratic primary OR the republican primary. You cannot vote in both. Where it is possible to cross over is that they do not care how I voted in previous elections. So I have voted democrat for 30 years. But I could choose to vote in the republican primary this year, rather than the democratic primary. But not both. Then in two years, I could go back to voting in the democratic primary. That's why we have a problem. Some voters cross over to try to get the candidate that will be easiest to beat (Crockett, in this instance) through to the general so that their side will win, especially if they don't particularly care about the outcome of their own race.

Personally, I think both Cornyn and Paxton are awful. Paxton is worse because he's an adulterer and a crook, but if I were a republican, maybe I would be thinking that I didn't really like or dislike either of them more than the other and it was most important to make sure SOME republican won in November, so use my primary vote to push Jasmine through, since sadly, there is a bigger chance of pigs flying than racist redneck Texas electing a black woman. Talarico is concerning to them. He flipped his solid red district to win his seat and they're worried he'll do it again.

[Pototan]

13. I know exactly what I'm saying.

There are 5 top candidates. BEFORE I choose a ballot, Rep or Dem. I can select one of the 5 candidates in my mind. If, for example, I choose Talarico, then naturally I pick a Dem. ballot. If I want to vote for Cornyn, then I pick a Rep. ballot.

I'm not saying that there is no a chance of cross over voting to pick a weaker candidate in the opposing party. But not in this election. Both elections are competitive and there are too many choices.

If, as is most likely, the Dems have a candidate win outright in March, but the Repukes are headed to a Paxton, Cornyn runoff in May, then boy, the shoe will definitely be on the other foot.

[Trueblue Texan]

22. There are only 2 Dem candidates for US Senate in the 2026 Texas primary.

One will definitely be headed for the November general election after the primary in March. Allred dropped out in December.

[Pototan]

16. Did you read all of my reply?

There are 4 choices for a voter, as I see it. If you are a MAGA Republican, you're taking a Republican ballot and voting for Paxton.

I know you only get one ballot with only the names of your party on it.

I am not confused with the Jungle Primaries in California or Louisianna.

I'm from Massachusetts. It is an "open partisan primary system", but not as open as Texas. In Massachusetts Dems only get a Dem ballot and Rep only get a Rep. ballot. But unenrolled (Independents) can choose either one of the primary ballots

New York and Pennsylvania are "closed" primaries and only enrolled party members get to vote in primaries. Independents can't vote in primaries at all.

Texas is the first time I've heard that anyone can choose either ballot.

As you can tell, I'm pretty knowledgeable of most state primaries.

[pinkstarburst]

17. Did you read all of my reply?

[Trueblue Texan]

7. I don't think you understand the primary elections in Texas.

True, you can vote in either primary, but you cannot vote in both. You can vote for ONE candidate in each race on the ballot you choose to vote on. And don't be so certain Paxton won't win. Texans love to vote for crooks. Just look at our track record for the last 30 years. I'm not overlooking anything. I know this state. I was not surprised when it became obvious that TSF was implicated in the Epstein files that those that once screamed so loudly about them would find a way to rationalize TSF's behavior. We are going to have to work our asses off to flip this state no matter TSF's unfavorability.

[Pototan]

14. Please read reply #13

[Trueblue Texan]

21. Gee this is fun!

[pinkstarburst]

2. Republicans definitely cross over

and vote in dem primaries, but in this case, they won't be voting for Talarico. They're voting for Crockett, knowing she's the far easier one to beat if she advances to the general. They're scared to death of Talarico winning the primary because he has crossover appeal and actually flipped a solid red district in order to win his seat. Crockett has only ever been elected in safe blue districts.

[Pototan]

4. Please read reply #3

[Trueblue Texan]

9. Please read reply #7. nt

[LetMyPeopleVote]

11. Texas is not a red state or blue state but is a non-voting state

In Texas, you do not register to vote by party. Texas is an open primary each voting cycle but once you vote in one party's primary, you are locked into that party's primary for the rest of the two-year voting cycle. That means that if you vote in one party primary for the first round of voting, then you cannot vote in the other party primary for any runoff races. Many local races are non-partisan and there are no primaries but there are usually runoffs if no candidate gets a majority of the vote. There may have been some cross over voters in the past, but Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in about 30 years and so most people stay in their own party primary. Here there are competitive races in the US Senate seat for both parties and so I doubt that there is much crossover. From what I have seen of the GOP senate polling, it is very likely that there will be a runoff in the GOP Senate primary race. If a GOP voter crossed over to vote in the Democratic primary, then that voter will not be able to vote in the GOP senate runoff.

One of the factors that give me hope that Texas is slowly turning blue is the demographic composition of GOP voters. Texas is getting more urban and younger which is not good for the GOP

Link to tweet

Absolutely bonkers how ancient the early voting electorate is for the Texas Senate Republican primary.
41% are age 70 or older.
85% are age 50 or older.

[Trueblue Texan]

23. Those youngsters best get their butts to the polls...

...if they don't want us old boomers deciding their fate. If it were up to this old boomer, their lives would be a lot better!

[Torchlight]

12. It's an interesting season in TX this year

Paxton and Cornyn seem to be competing over who can show greater loyalty to Trump, while their base remains silent. At the same time, the Democratic side has two stellar candidates, yet much of the local commentary relies on overtly speculative interpretations treated as if they were definitive conclusions and absolutes.

[dalton99a]

15. Cornyn's TV campaign is using facts

[Cherrycheeks]

18. Anybody remember...

Tom Delay? Another POS!😡

[dalton99a]

19. Yes. The crooked pest exterminator

[LetMyPeopleVote]

20. The Polling in the Texas Democratic Senate primary is all over the place

While I have already voted for Talarico, I would be very happy to support Crockett if she is the nominee. Texas Democrats are blessed with two amazing persons running for this seat which is why the polling has been all over the place.

Link to tweet

I thought our 2024 MD senate primary had some of the worst polling but TX you are the winner hands down. I really have no clue who will win on Tuesday and I am okay with that.

One or none of these polls got it right, I never seen no shit like this 🤷🏽‍♀️

Here is the latest average of the polling

Link to tweet

These numbers are all within the margin of error and so I would not be surprised to see either candidate emerge as the nominee. Again, Texas Democrats are blessed with two amazing candidates and we will be fortunate to have either candidate be our nominee to run against hopefully Paxton.