Twenty million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday. Today the number may be zero.

[womanofthehills]

War risk underwriters began canceling policies for strait transits hours after Operation Epic Fury launched. The Financial Times confirmed premiums surging 50 percent. Baseline war risk sits at 0.25 percent of hull value. For a hundred million dollar tanker that is 250,000 dollars per voyage. At peak escalation rates, one million per transit. Vessels linked to American or Israeli interests are becoming uninsurable entirely. No price. No policy. No passage.

Link to tweet

?s=46

[pat_k]

1. Of course! Seems an obvious consequence once it's brought to your attention.

Wanna bet it's a big surprise to the felon and his minions?

[niyad]

4. Pretty sure they are counting on it, to raise prices and make his oil buddies

even more money.

[Melon]

2. Much less of an issue for the US. We produce currently just under 14 million barrels a day

On 20 million consumption. 4 million comes down from Canada plus now Venezuela. Bigger issue for China.
There has always been a risk premium to oil because of Iran. This will cause a premium, but not much yet. Brent is at $72 a barrel with the rise in price only $2 today so far which is nothing. In the last 5 days it’s up 2.5%. This is not driving prices yet.

[angrychair]

3. Point is, it will

Of much more concern is how China will react to have their oil put at risk.

He is trying to push China's buttons. That is not a fight we want at all.

[niyad]

5. You are quite correct.

[BumRushDaShow]

9. China is just observing and taking notes for their plans on Taiwan

So I wouldn't worry about them at this point. The issue is going to be Russia because their oil is sanctioned, they are allied with Iran as most of their drones have been manufactured by Iran, and if they go full-Iran support, they will really let loose on Ukraine as "punishment".

[Melon]

10. The Middle East probably supplies 5%

Of US oil right now.
China is getting a clear message as well. The US took the leader of Venezuela despite having Iranian, Russian, Chinese air defense systems and didn’t lose one aircraft or life. They just killed the leader of Iran and took out their most important military complexes in the most heavily defended country in the Middle East. Day one not one aircraft or US life was lost. They also have Russian, Chinese and their own technology.

Oil prices will undoubtedly rise. We will see how much. Oil has been long. Oil may also rise on the Brent but not so much on the WTI, just widening the spread which would be another advantage to the US.

I have a feeling if Iran chooses to shoot a missile at a tanker in the gulf, all of their coastal batteries and Navy will get their shit pushed in. This will also not endear Iran to China. The other gulf countries would also be even more displeased.

[ForgedCrank]

13. There's a flaw

in that logic unfortunately.
We produce enough for our own use, for sure. But as long as the oil is allowed to be exported, it will react to global prices since sellers can sell in that global market. So, unless there is a temporary oil and NG export ban, we will still get hit just as hard as everyone else.
The real answer is to eliminate the regime that uses this shipping lane as their go-to weapon in holding the entire planet hostage.

[Melon]

16. We won't be hit just as hard.

We are independent on NG. We also produce Ethylene and Propylene in our manufacturing for cracking gas. China and Europe are primarily using oil to Naptha. We have a regional advantage to our own production.

I haven’t been a part of the specific conversation on the risk adder Iran costs on oil today. It used to be said $5-$10 of oil pricing was risk hedge and insurance due to Iran threats on the region. Oman is working with Saudi currently to build a pipeline bypassing the straight to export directly offshore of Oman just to bypass Iran. The project is many billions.

I agree that the price of oil rises across the globe. But there is a spread to the WTI that expands or contracts based upon supply availability. The US has a natural buffer due to our supply position. The spread is currently about $5 a barrel but used to be $10 when I was working in the space. It can move.

The initial attack is not really moving markets yet. Just a little. We will see Monday what happens and if Iran can realistically threaten the Strait.

If the current Iranian government is removed and a new government without extremism takes hold, their oil would conceptually be available to world markets as well as the risk premium coming off oil.

[ForgedCrank]

17. Just my

speculation, but I'm guessing that tomorrow morning the market devolves into an unreasonable panic as opportunists start a frenzy. Prices will skyrocket to a crazy and unrealistic level, then withing a short time (days?) the coalition will have control of the passage and squash the Iranian threat to that shipping lane, then prices will start easing again.
I'm not sure how much my opinion is based on reality, and how much is just based on hope. Even if it comes true, it'll tie up a lot of naval resources to secure safe passage in the area. It's a mess anyway we look at it.

[Melon]

18. I think prices will rise slowly.

Some oil still flows down the Red Sea to the gulf.

It all depends on whether Iran can actually threaten the straits. They literally were hit devastatingly hard day one and didn’t shoot down 1 plane. We already have destroyers and cruisers etc always in the Straits. The 5th fleet is the protector of that area. You notice that they have done nothing in the straits. Nothing. They are shooting missiles into their neighbors but they aren’t shooting into the straits. They know they’ll lose everything in a day.

The markets aren’t reacting for a reason.
Part of my career was in a similar area in that region. Iran is not supported by the regional Arab countries.

China in the last 2 months just lost its top two oil suppliers. Russia just lost a major supplier of drones used in its war. The bigger picture is not going to be just the straights.

[Another Jackalope]

6. The last two lines of that post:

"Iran figured out something the Pentagon still has not.
You do not need to close a strait. You just need to make it uninsurable."

[Aussie105]

7. How much does the rest of the world depend on oil exports from Iran?

There will be possible fuel shortages and big price jumps for consumers of the oil products.

So much for people who think this conflict won't affect them directly.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-fuel-petrol-oil-prices-cost-israel-strikes-b2929649.html

[ForgedCrank]

14. The entire

planet depends on that shipping lane. For example, even if Iran is only selling oil to China (who buys most of it right now), if that supply dries up, China will seek oil on the open market to replace that supply, and that in turn affects everyone buying oil by driving up demand from other sources, and as a consequence, the price as well.
The answer is to make sure that Iran can no longer keep pulling this stunt.

[roamer65]

8. Al Jazeera just reported a tanker was attacked.

That will end insurance of tankers which pass through the strait.

[bif]

11. It'll be another excuse to raise the price of gas

[Kaleva]

12. This will have a huge impact on China, India, Japan and South Korea

About 70% of gas and oil transiting the straits is destined for those 4 nations.

[themaguffin]

15. Orange Caligula is such a dip shit, though his grifting is unmatched.