How Would Iran Respond to a U.S. Attack?

[Joinfortmill]

https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-would-iran-respond-us-attack

'A1: Could Iran use cyberattacks to retaliate? Yes. Any response is almost certain to involve either a direct or indirect role for cyber operations. The regime has a documented history of substituting cyber operations for its traditional approach to proxy warfare in terrorism. Between 2012 and 2014, Iran targeted U.S. financial institutions (Operation Ababil), Saudi Aramco, and the Las Vegas Sands Corporation...

A2: Could Iran target U.S. unmanned systems in retaliation? They have in the past. In the summer of 2019, amidst high tensions in the Gulf, Iran responded to a U.S. military buildup by shooting down a RQ-4A Global Hawk High-Altitude, Long-Endurance surveillance drone in international waters near the Strait of Hormuz...

A3: Iran could opt to respond to a limited strike by the United States in the maritime domain. Firing one-way attack drones and laying mines provides a way to scale escalation without becoming locked into a major war. Iran could opt to lay mines short of closing the Strait of Hormuz and disrupting global oil markets or simply fire multiple drones at a U.S. target they know would be intercepted, but still likely to send a message. Waves of one-way attack drones in the air and sea also serve to deplete U.S. defense munitions, which are already at low levels. In the current standoff, the United States has already shot down a drone approaching a U.S. aircraft carrier. In the extreme, it could even combine fast attack boats, anti-ship cruise missiles, drones, and mines to try and sink a U.S. ship, but this would set the precedent for a larger second strike by the United States....

A4: What unconventional response options does Iran have? Iran has a long history of using terrorism, proxies, and assassinations to advance state interests. In the early 1980s, Iran conducted multiple bombings of U.S. facilities across the Middle East, including the U.S. Marine barracks and embassy in Beirut, as well as the U.S. and French embassies in Kuwait. The period also saw kidnappings of U.S. citizens and high-profile airline hijackings...

A5: Could Iran launch large missile salvos at U.S. bases in the region? Iran has used limited missile strikes to retaliate against U.S. attacks in the past to demonstrate resolve while avoiding a larger conflict...The historical record suggests Iran seeks a delicate balance of signaling resolve to save face while avoiding a larger escalation spiral that would threaten regime interests, if not survival. If the initial U.S. attack is limited, Iran’s response will be proportional and limited or seek to use a proxy to defuse the situation. Tehran will have to assume that the United States will have stealth aircraft and land-attack cruise missiles at the ready to retaliate against any missile launch site, creating a need to fire from multiple launch sites, integrate drones, and keep large stockpiles in secure underground caves...

If the U.S. response is larger than press reports suggest out of fear of Iranian ballistic missile attacks or the need to limit naval attack options, including closing the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian leaders may confront a losses frame and adopt risk-acceptant behavior.'

[Lonestarblue]

1. Blowing up a few empty Trump buildings being constructed in the Middle East might send Trump a message.

The family is getting richer and richer based on Trump's favors by the US government.

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/05/12/the-trump-family-s-lucrative-business-deals-in-the-gulf_6741163_4.html#