It's not about just Iran

[Melon]

I have a background in petroleum derivatives and have worked extensively in the region.

I see this as a wider move against China. China is the largest threat to the US and our economy. Iran threat is nuclear and are largely not supported by their Arab neighbors due to support of regional terrorist factions. The Arab countries now are focused on development and growth away from oil. The last thing they want are rogue nations costing them money and reputation.

China has lost their top two oil suppliers in a matter of months. The nations who ignore the US sanctions on Iran oil purchase it in the global markets at a substantial discount. When we see Chinese goods flooding markets, they are typically not advantaged in a raw material basis to the US. But what they are getting in the background is Iranian and Venezuela oil at a ~15%- 20% discount and Russian oil at a 20%+ discount. This is a lot of the money when you hear China subsidizes its manufacturing so it’s why things are so cheap.

This is a huge profit center for China, Turkey, India. This is being dismantled. The world oil markets are being leveled. The backend oil markets will not advantage China.

Russia is now it. China will take as much as possible discounted oil. If Iran stabilizes oil prices will likely drop as the risk premium on the straits will be removed. Russia will lose further war revenue. Not to mention Russia just lost its major 3rd party supplier of drones.

The attack is on Iran. The wider picture is an attack on the infrastructure of China.

[flamingdem]

1. What are "oil prudes"

Never heard that one

[Melon]

2. Thank you. I edited.

Prices.
I typed on my tablet and have shaky fingers.

[IronLionZion]

39. Oil Prudes are easily shocked by matters relating to sex or nudity.

[3_Limes]

3. So we're pushing China to step up their shift away feom oil.

Effectively pushing China towards leadership in the technologies that will replace petroleum and simultaneously wedding ourselves to soon-to-be obsolete energy sources for the foreseeable future. Leaving our children with an America that runs on technologies purchased from China.

Smart!

[Melon]

9. There is no pushing. China will pursue renewables

Because of their lack of key raw materials. They are not basic in oil. They also have a major issue with pollution.

You can’t get away from oil unfortunately for China. Their manufacturing of plastics is all downstream from Naptha. They don’t have the oil and NG reserves to support.

The northern and central region of China rely on coal for energy because that’s what they have.

Oil is not just energy. It’s a raw material.

[3_Limes]

20. Good point!

So the game is still on.

[NNadir]

33. Renewables? Really?

Um, there is absolutely no evidence, none, that so called "renewables" have anything to do with the use of fossil fuels. The expenditure of trillions of dollars on so called "renewable energy" has had no effect, whatsoever, on the use of dangerous fossil fuels.

In fact, "renewable energy" is dependent on fossil fuels. It is widely reported that the sun is not available 24 hours a day, nor does the wind always blow.

The Chinese are making an effort to displace their coal dependence, but it is with nuclear energy, not renewables. Nuclear energy is reliable, something so called "renewables" are not.

I would certainly advise anyone buying into the "renewables will save us" Kool-Aid, to read this excellent, new book on the topic:

The Elements of Power

Subtitle:

A Story of War, Technology, and the Dirtiest Supply Chain on Earth

...By Nicolas Niarchos

I'm reading it right now, although I have long understood that so called "renewable energy" is not renewable, nor has it ever been about displacing fossil fuels, on which it depends. It was always about attacking the last best chance humanity had at eliminating fossil fuels, nuclear energy.

I personally believe that Chinese support for so called "renewable energy" is to support the rather dirty lanthanide mines in Baotou.

[Melon]

44. Just saw this. Absolutely correct.

China is coal dependent central and north. They have a pollution problem that renewable energy can help. But it’s not displacing oil in the near term.

[NNadir]

46. So called "renewables" can't help.

If one shuts a coal plant because the wind is blowing and/or the sun is shining, one has to burn more coal to restart the cooled plant.

If one places a pot of water on the stove, and it boils, and then one turns off the heat, and comes back two hours later, the water will need to absorb heat before it boils again.

The same thing applies to coal powered plants. Either one burns coal to keep the plant ready or one wastes coal to reheat the plant.

So called "renewable energy" is useless. It's not clean; it's not sustainable; and it is not even "renewable."

China's main source of electrical power generation is coal.

[Melon]

47. Ok. I think of things more in line to the scale of the issue.

China has massive renewable investment because they have a massive pollution issue combined with high power consumption. They are a net importer.

Green energy is not a sole source as you say. You can add it to a power grid like a normal source. An example is Texas today using about 35% green energy on the ERCOT grid.
In order to have green energy used to require 3x the grid investment because of the swings in availability. The change came with Tesla. Tesla battery technology changed green energy grid planning. Industrial batteries allow plants to run solar and keep power overnight. There are now many competing technologies that China uses.
I have been in large chemical plants with acres of solar panels in the US and Mexico. They may not use batteries but run the majority of energy off of solar during the day. Example Celanese Clear lake plant. China can do the same.

China uses coal primarily. It’s dirty. There solution used to be just telling every other plant to shut down when the air gets too dirty.

[KT2000]

4. Can you tell me

Why bomb Dubai?

[Melon]

10. Iran is lashing out at what they can hit.

Irans neighbors don’t like them. They de-stabilize the region. It’s not the people it’s the government. Oman is neutral so that’s who they speak with. It’s why Oman arranges regional negotiations.

The mentality in the region also has a degree of saving face. They have to respond. You notice they are not shooting at the US warships in the Straights? They aren’t shooting at Tankers in the straights? They know they’ll lose their navy in 8 hours and all of their shore batteries.

[KT2000]

21. thank you

[lame54]

5. Giving them way too much credit...

Act irrationally then lie about the results
That's all they're about

[yardwork]

38. Putin is not irrational and he runs Trump.

[Dan]

6. Interesting - thanks for sharing.

So, if China is the ultimate ‘threat’, you have to ask the question. Where does this lead us as it relates to China? Trump wants us to go back to using coal, the Arab nations are looking at getting away from oil, and China is buying all the oil it can - but what is their future energy direction. I read somewhere that China is developing the best batteries, etc.

I just come back to the idea that Trump is playing checkers and China is playing chess.

[Melon]

13. China will continue to buy oil.

Oil is a commodity. But the impression here and by much of the press is that it’s flat. That’s not the case. China buys a massive amount of oil but will effectively lose a 15-20% subsidy. This is passed all the way through their manufacturing. It’s huge.

China is effectively getting boxed in. China does produce good batteries. I’ve met with professors working on battery technology for BYD. But understand that Tesla has good technology and others including Korea. Battery technology is advancing. The chemicals we sold for use by BYD into their batteries are derived from petroleum or NG.

The US won’t go back to coal. It’s not possible. You can bring a few power plants online, but new construction plants are designed for 30 years. It’s not coal. Once we moved away from coal the infrastructure was put to other uses.

[pcdb]

25. I think you're missing the bigger issue

China was buying oil from Iran in Yuan and not the Petrodollar (USD). You can look at any foreign policy decision in the last three decades and link it back to our need to keep the USD as the world's reserve currency.

[Melon]

27. Ok. So that would just further weaken the BRICS

Alliance. Same point. Further weakening of China.

[cachukis]

7. Do you think the trumpers are aware of this card

and are consciously playing it?

[Melon]

15. I don't know about common trumpets.

The administration absolutely. They are systematically dismantling the current system that supported historically communist countries.

Venezuela
Iran
Cuba - is close to falling
China
Russia. -

[cachukis]

22. So then, if China has to pay more for oil, and they

pass the prices on, how is it good for the world?
Iran's economy is troubled, as is Russia's and China's.
Displacing Maduro has not really replaced the regime. The Ayatollah has designated his replacements and China has a gigantic economy.
What is the trump end game?

[Melon]

24. I'm not sure if you are American or itger

As the board has members from all over the world.
I don’t want to walk this back all the way through economics, but China taking an unfair advantage in raw materials kills global manufacture.

Europes chemical industry, which was the historic start of much of it, is in shambles. They have just started applying large duties to Chinese products to try and protect their industries. China is overbuilding massive capacity in global chemicals and basically shipping the at cost globally. Their driving is employment and driving out competition.

The result is the shutting down of domestic production followed by the inevitable large increase in prices once domestic competition is eliminated. Predatory pricing out of China is a tactic not a gesture. They are not our friends.

Germany is a manufacturing economy as an example. Google layoffs chemicals in Germany. BASF, Lanxess, Oxea, Dow…once large industrial producers close it is gone.

China is on the same global land grab for resources. In Africa and Latin America. Their loans are not to help, they are to secure ports and resources once the country inevitably defaults.

[cachukis]

48. Thanks. Great perspective.

[Frasier Balzov]

8. This just brings some rationing in China.

For the national patriotic objective of reclaiming Taiwan.

An event which surely must be imminent now.

By doing so, China will have captured the world's most important supplier of semiconductors.

The U.S. military and its contractors are very busy already, and may not be able or willing to stop it.

[Melon]

16. There is no rationing. Oil is plentiful right now.

They’ll just be forced to buy at the same market price as everyone else.

[Jbraybarten]

11. I don't see any of his actions helping us against China. Quite the opposite in fact.

[Demsrule86]

14. I don't see it either...they want an excuse is all. There are no excuses that can suffice.

[Melon]

18. It absolutely does.

It is maybe to much too type with my one finger.

It is going to level the manufacturing playing field and raw materials. You can still be advantaged on labour etc.

The US is advantaged on raw materials.
Europe is not.
China is not. But they have been subsidized to be advantaged by buying sanctioned oil at a discount.

[Sogo]

29. You don't have to be limited to one finger. You could speak your posts into your phone/tablet....

nt

[Melon]

30. Ohhhh. I...need to learn obviously.

[Demsrule86]

12. Are you defending this? Trump has now killed Americans soldiers...no excuse.

A bunch of women and kids were killed already...and Netanyahu scrambled back to Israel...leaving our soldiers to clean up the mess he, Trump and Saudi Arabia created. There is no excuse...that satisfies...and I am throwing this out there...any Democrat that supports this gets a primary as soon as we can... Time to stop the billionaires who are destroying our country for profif.

[Melon]

19. I am communicating data. I am sharing my market

Last edited Sun Mar 1, 2026, 05:56 PM - Edit history (1)

View because I am versed in it. I don’t want to share too much on my background but I’m not googling answers.

You can take it or leave it. I’m absolutely not using this post to advocate, I’m educating.

We are seeing a global shift in the world right now. That is my larger picture. At the end of the day I also see things as an American. I’ve been to these areas and negotiated in China. They aren’t friends of ours.

I don’t want any American to die. But I see panic in some area of our side on oil prices etc which I’m trying to explain. If you were an expert in rubber ducks and there was a large rubber duck attack, I’d appreciate your insight.

[malaise]

17. FFS

We’re tired of US greed and US Imperialism.
The US does not own our planet’s resources.
Sick of it…period.
Everybody is a threat to the biggest bully on the planet.

None of the global elite give a shit about the poor or democracy. They want to control what belongs to all of humanity.
Enough already. China is not my problem.

[wiggs]

23. Plus...it may not be advisable to credit TSF and this WH with multi-dimensional thinking of future

conditions based on deep knowledge, intelligence, careful planning, and wisdom.

When do MSM and analysts give up trying to ascribe deeper, well-considered, unseen policy-making skills to his 1.25 terms in office and his entire life when -- in truth -- there is only evidence of his his endless neediness to be seen as a something other than a hollow, limited, cruel half-human?

[malaise]

26. I turned them all off

Enough of the excuses

[Sogo]

31. And the only reason the US did this was because Netanyahu knows how to manipulate Trump....

remember Epstein had close ties to Israel (taught Russia how to manipulate Trump), was probably an agent for Mousad, as well as an agent for Russia....

[malaise]

32. Dig up Kushner's ex con daddy and Bibi

Enough already with the madness of king Donvict and his regime.

[1WorldHope]

28. Melon, you tried to share your expertise.

You have a world view, experience and understanding that I can't touch, so I won't argue with you.
I hate to think that anything that criminal does, is helpful to the world in any way, on purpose or accidental. One thing for sure the world is changing rapidly and I am terrified.

[Melon]

35. It's not an argument situation. Is my view.

I can’t publish my experience or background that would give me credibility to rely on my opinions. But I am versed in the subject. But at the end of the day, it’s an opinion. I’m not in the government. But what I’ve said about the economic cost to China is true. Oil is a key to many things globally including funding Russia’s war. Putin seems to not care about the number of deaths but without money and supplies the war can’t continue forever.

The people doing the analysis and a lot of the calls the government makes for expertise are not wholly Trump assets. Expertise takes decades and the industry is not big enough to find experts with every administration. If this comforts anything at all.

We will see how it plays out. There are huge unknowns regarding random radicalized followers taking action etc., but these military actions are just as clearly a warning to other countries. They are all using similar air defense systems that are effectively powerless against US warplanes and missiles. Maybe this is giving others second thoughts about pursuing their own military actions.

[wnylib]

34. Sounds like a description of how crime families operate.

Looks like the sex angle might have been a lure to bring people in, or mlre likely, a "luxury" for the elite to celebrate their status. They could indulge fantasies without consequences.

[Exp]

36. In other words - It's easier to BULLY than to compete. nt

[paleotn]

37. Do you actually believe Trump and his clown car can think that deeply or that far ahead?

Last edited Sun Mar 1, 2026, 05:35 PM - Edit history (1)

I have serious doubts. And your comment on cost of goods from China is simplistic. Yes, cheap oil helps some, but that's only a small part of the equation.

Do you know that China accounted for more than half of ALL renewable energy installations in 2025? Over 430 gigawatts. They're up to 3.3 TERAwatts in renewable sources now. Over a third of their energy consumption and 3 times the renewable infrastructure as the US.

Edited to take out the harshness. Sorry about that. Cost of good produced is a corner of my world. The things driving Chinese costs right now are still cheap labor, though not nearly as cheap as it once was, massive government subsidies, and extraordinarily high volume. They've addressed their increasing labor costs by introducing huge amounts of automation. And not AI driving automation. Just interesting modifications of off the shelf robotics that's been around for years. "Lights out" production is a thing there now, where the only humans are maybe a couple of techs wandering around somewhere making sure the equipment doesn't catch on fire or the few tasks not yet automated. They're significantly ahead of US and European production facilities in that.

[Melon]

41. I'm not sure what you think is simplistic?

I wrote it in a way for a wider audience to understand.

What does your solar comment have to do with the discussion? Solar is energy. China is not advantaged on energy cost.

I don’t think you understand much of the premise which is why you perhaps think it’s simplistic. Oil at a discount is used to make the raw materials that drive their manufacturing. Both in the sale of chemicals and goods. This is a big component of why you see Chinese goods as cheaper and many countries applying duties and tariffs to China in particular to protect home industries.

You are dropping in solar. China is the largest importer of energy in the world.

[struggle4progress]

42. If oil prices rise, somebody will make more money -- so maybe it's a grift too!

[Melon]

45. Oil prices rising and staying right now is likely bad

Oil is funding Russia. If prices remain stable or elevated, the war is where it’s at today.

Oil prices go down, Russia loses money to fuel the war and run the economy. The Russian population has supported Putin despite losses of so many men, but if the economy collapses and they are losing men….?

Who is financing the war in Europe? China and Turkey are buying the oil at a discount. I believe India has now stopped. EU is buying the majority of Russia’s natural gas, followed by China. EU is buying NG from Russia. This has gone down since the US started exporting but they buy a lot from Russia.

[yardwork]

43. This makes a lot of sense. Putin runs Trump.