The more Democrats win closely watched races, the more Republicans should be concerned about the 2026 midterms.
Number of state legislative seats Dems have flipped since Trump's second term began: 9
Number of state legislative seats Republicans have flipped over the same period: 0
www.ms.now/rachel-maddo...
— Steve Benen (@stevebenen.com) 2026-03-04T19:14:11.521Z
https://www.ms.now/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/dems-score-upset-win-in-arkansas-special-election-giving-gop-new-reason-to-worry
There were all kinds of closely watched elections this week in Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina, up and down the ballot, but there was only one race in which one party lost a seat to the other. That contest was in Arkansas, and it delivered another round of good news for Democrats. The Hill reported:
Democrat Alex Holladay is projected to win the special election to represent Arkansas�s House District 70, edging out Republican Bo Renshaw, according to Decision Desk HQ. [�]
Holladay�s victory does not change control of the state�s lower legislative chamber, where Republicans have held a 80-19 majority. But the Democratic pickup could matter for appropriations bills, which require a 75-percent supermajority vote from both chambers.
Arkansas is clearly one of the nation�s more reliably red states, but Holladay was running in a politically quirky area: According to calculations from The Downballot, Donald Trump carried this district by 4 points in 2020, but Kamala Harris won the same district by 2 points in the 2024 cycle.
As the dust settled on this week�s special election, Holladay overperformed, winning by double digits.......
What�s more, The Downballot�s analysis noted that
the results out of Arkansas marked the ninth time Democrats have flipped a district from red to blue in a special election since Trump returned to the White House. Over that same period, the number of seats flipped from blue to red remains zero.
Some will no doubt argue that it�s best not to read too much into a special election held in the winter, several months before November�s races. It�s a fair point, to be sure. But what matters is the degree to which the results fit into the broader political landscape.
Republicans are tied to an unpopular president; a growing number of their congressional members are retiring; key elements of the GOP agenda are facing an intensifying public backlash; and they keep losing special elections, including in contests they expected to win.
If party insiders aren�t concerned about their standing ahead of this year�s midterm elections, they�re not paying close enough attention.
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