Leaked classified report undercut Trump's Iran plans a week before he started war: WaPo

[turbinetree]

By Tom Boggioni
Published March 7, 2026 12:29 PM ET

Three members of the Donald Trump administration have confirmed to the Washington Post that a classified document created by the National Intelligence Council poured cold water on the president’s hopes about regime change in Iran following his war launch.

According to the Post, the warning was completed a week before the president gave the go-ahead for the Department of Defense, under Secretary Pete Hegseth to proceed with the bombings on February 28th.

The classified report examined succession scenarios under two potential military scenarios: a targeted campaign against Iran's leadership or a broader assault on its government institutions. In both cases, intelligence analysts concluded that "Iran's clerical and military establishment would respond to the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by following protocols designed to preserve continuity of power," according to those familiar with the findings.

https://www.rawstory.com/trump-iran-mistake/

Paywall...............

Impeach the entire cabinet........

[Baitball Blogger]

1. So much for his feeling.

A gut feeling only makes sense AFTER you gather information.

[turbinetree]

2. The American public is so screwed and I will say this until he leaves............

I blame the US maga Senate and the maga US Supreme Court ..................

[fujiyamasan]

3. Kicking this -- the New York Times mentioned this morning

Julian E. Barnes
March 7, 2026, 11:01 a.m. ET5 hours ago
Julian E. BarnesReporting from Washington

A U.S. intelligence assessment in February found that an attack on Iran was unlikely to result in regime change.

Image
A gathering of people hold portraits showing a person with a white beard, glasses, and a black turban. They also hold green, white, and red flags.
People in Tehran on Friday mourning Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, who was killed in the U.S.-Israeli strikes. There seems to be wide agreement in the U.S. intelligence community that the theological government in Iran is deeply entrenched. Credit...Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times
A report by the National Intelligence Council completed before the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran assessed that even a large-scale military assault on the country would be unlikely to topple its theocratic government, according to U.S. officials briefed on the work.

The N.I.C., which is part of Tulsi Gabbard’s Office of National Intelligence, is in charge of crafting intelligence assessments based on an array of views across the intelligence community. While some of their reports are joint products, others are produced independently, with less coordination.

The council’s document, drafted late last month, builds on work by the C.I.A. that assessed that a complete change of government was unlikely even if Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, was killed in a U.S.-led military operation. But the actual report was an independent product of the council, the officials said.

Still, there seemed to be wide agreement that the theological government in Iran is deeply entrenched. Intelligence officials have been skeptical that a popular uprising could dislodge the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the organization that exerts control over much of the security apparatus in Iran as well as large sectors of its economy.

The N.I.C. report was earlier reported by The Washington Post.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

4. Intel report warns large-scale war 'unlikely' to oust Iran's regime

A classified U.S. report doubts that Iran’s opposition would take power following either a short or extended U.S. military campaign.

EXCLUSIVE BREAKING NEWS: Intel report warns large-scale war ‘unlikely’ to oust Iran’s regime @johnphudson.bsky.social and Warren Strobel -- wapo.st/4lcrq3M

— Karen Tumulty (@ktumulty.bsky.social) 2026-03-07T12:35:32.786Z

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/03/07/iran-intelligence-report-unlikely-oust-regime/

A classified report by the National Intelligence Council found that even a large-scale assault on Iran launched by the United States would be unlikely to oust the Islamic republic’s entrenched military and clerical establishment, a sobering assessment as the Trump administration raises the specter of an extended military campaign that officials say has “only just begun.”

The findings, confirmed to The Washington Post by three people familiar with the report’s contents, raise doubts about President Donald Trump’s declared plan to “clean out” Iran’s leadership structure and install a ruler of his choosing.

The report, completed about a week before the United States and Israel initiated the war on Feb. 28, outlined succession scenarios stemming from either a narrowly tailored campaign against Iran’s leaders or a broader assault against its leadership and government institutions, the people familiar with its findings said. In both cases, the intelligence concluded that Iran’s clerical and military establishment would respond to the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by following protocols designed to preserve continuity of power, these people said.

The prospect of Iran’s fragmented opposition taking control of the country was described as “unlikely,” said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a classified report.....

Current and former U.S. officials say they see little sign, at least so far, of a mass popular uprising in Iran or of significant fissures within the government or security forces that will result in a new regime. Iran’s security forces killed thousands of protesters during demonstrations in January fueled by the country’s abysmal economy. The guidance from Trump to the Iranian people has been to shelter in place until the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign concludes.