"When you poke a bear, you don't get to decide when it goes back to sleep" -- Morgan Freeman

[artemisia1]

Iran is stating publicly that it will not end the war until they have ended Israel's ability to wage a new one anytime it wishes and until it has pushed the U.S. out of the GCC. We've evacuated -- or put a skeleton crew -- on our Gulf bases and the facilities, expensive ports and radars especially, are being damaged or outright destroyed so I think they may be able to do this. What Gulf State wants to be destroyed? No, their leadership is accustomed to wealth and leisure, not hardship, and they will not wish to have American bases back on their lands after the war as they are missile magnets.

No, don't tell me how Iran's launchers are largely destroyed and they are on their last legs when they launched the largest attack of the war on Tel Aviv last night.

I deeply hope Trump is looking for an offramp ASAP -- even if only to save himself.

ON EDIT: a DU member just pointed out that this is another Morgan Freeman and not the actor. Sorry.

[JBTaurus83]

1. I don't buy this

“Iran is on its last leg” thing at all. They are striking with more powerful weapons, and they still have cards to play in this.

[artemisia1]

2. Thanks. Some folks on DU still are even while Iran curb-stomps Tel Aviv and Haifa. /nt

[JBTaurus83]

4. I've been following

Al Jazeera English, and they have had good even handed coverage of both sides. It sounds like Israel and the UAE have enacted a lot of censorship to conceal what has been hit and what casualties really are. I feel like we are getting the “Russian” treatment as far as media coverage here.

[artemisia1]

5. Yes. Also good is Hebrew Twitter (X), if you use a translator you can break through the censorship and find out

just how terrified they are and how fed up they are with Netanyahu.

[JBTaurus83]

10. Thanks for the suggestion I'll take a look.

[sheshe2]

3. I have to say that I have always adored Morgan Freeman.

❤️❤️

[artemisia1]

6. Yes, same here. He's the best living narrator although Peter Coyote is pretty good as well. /nt

[sheshe2]

8. That voice!

[Wiz Imp]

7. This is not the actor Morgan Freeman

Link to tweet

[artemisia1]

9. Thanks for the correction. /nt

[OC375]

11. Bad Strategy

Iran has been stating it wants to erase Israel from existence for as long as I can recall. I believe them.I think if Iran makes this about disarming Israel, rather than the West keeping Iran down, then Israel will likely fight down to the last child, knowing what happened to people hiding in their homes on 10/7. They have a kind of "Cold dead hands" vibe going on lately, IMHO. I'd bet on Israel as much as anyone using a nuke if cornered. Why wouldn't they?

[JBTaurus83]

12. The whole thing is so dangerous

Both governments would love to see the other obliterated.

[Jedi Guy]

13. I think you're vastly overestimating Iran's ability to project force in the region.

They launched their "most intense" wave of attacks today, that verbiage being used by the IRGC, and yet no injuries were reported in either Israel or Saudi Arabia, at least not as far as I've seen. Both nations have missile interception capability, the vaunted "Iron Dome" and whatever the Saudis have.

The reality is that missiles are probably about all Iran has left. The US and Israel have established air superiority over Iran. That much is evident from the way both are bombing the shit out of the Iranians pretty much at will. This indicates Iran's air force is largely neutralized. In the same vein Iran's navy is taking a beating. With the absence of boots on the ground, the IRGC and Basij are largely irrelevant.

I think you're also underestimating just how much the other Gulf states hate Iran. There's the Shia/Sunni divide at play for one thing, and that animosity runs deep. Another factor is Iran's ambition to be a regional power, something the Saudis, among others, definitely do not want to see coming to fruition. Iran hasn't endeared itself to its neighbors.

There's a lot going on here, militarily and geopolitically. Iran can state publicly that it won't end the war until Israel is no longer able to wage war. Stating it publicly and having the power to bring it about are two very different things. I strongly doubt Iran could outlast Israel alone, much less Israel and the US working together.

Obligatory note: This is not to say the war is a good thing or that we were justified in attacking Iran. My post is strictly my reading of the military and geopolitical situation and that's all. As I've said in other posts, I think it was folly for Trump to launch us into this idiotic war but Trump gonna Trump. Getting mad about him doing something stupid is like getting mad at fire for being hot.