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A stark assessment from Monica Harris on our current situation
A sobering read
WARNING: Do not read if you are trapped in a partisan bubble
I’m posting this because I believe events are quickly unfolding in the Persian Gulf that may soon affect the lives of all Americans.
I’m not expecting Iran to nuke Israel, but I think it may unleash something equally devastating on the U.S.
First, let’s get something out of the way. It doesn’t matter if you think this war is legitimate or not, whether you think Iran is evil incarnate or not. The only thing that matters is that we’re in this war now and desperately need to find an exit strategy because the Strait of Hormuz cannot remain closed indefinitely.
Hormuz is the lifeline of the global economy, and if it stays closed even through the end of the month countries around the world, and especially Europe, will begin to feel enormous pain. Australia only has 14 days of liquid natural gas (LNG) left in its stockpiles. Europe’s energy stockpiles have already dropped below 30%.
Over the past several days one thing has become clear: despite its rag tag military that has been “100% defeated,” Iran continues to wield control over Hormuz. With drones, mines, and missiles perched in tunnels and cliffs, ships are literally terrified to transit without Iran’s “approval.” Even worse, Iran has shown no signs of surrendering; in fact, it seems ready to hunker down for the long haul.
The U.S. knows it cannot force Hormuz open without suffering unacceptable losses of lives, ships, and equipment — so Trump has reached out to western allies for assistance.
Here’s the problem: over the past 48 hours Trump has received nothing but rejections. The UK, Germany, Italy, France, Japan, Australia, South Korea — all have refused to send ships to confront an Iranian military that has been “100% defeated.”
And honestly, you can see their point: they weren’t consulted about this war. They had nothing to do with Hormuz’s closure. So why should they risk lives and assets forcing it open? If the world’s most powerful military can’t get the job done, what can they possibly do to help?
Trump has responded by reminding allies that they rely on Hormuz more than the U.S., so it’s in their best interest to assist. He’s even warned of a “very bad future” if allies don’t cooperate.
And now we get to the part that matters most to all of us.
Iran has indicated that it is willing to open Hormuz to ships — except those belonging to the U.S. and its allies. The other hitch? Anyone purchasing oil that leaves the Gulf must do so not with dollars, but with Chinese yuan.
Iran isn’t trying to defeat the U.S. militarily. As a member of BRICS, it’s going for the economic jugular.
Remember that Europe and other American allies desperately need oil and LNG. They can’t survive without it. Yet they’ve all clearly refused to send military assistance to “help” the U.S. open the strait they need more than the U.S.
Ah, but these countries could cruise through the Gulf and solve their energy problems overnight — if they agree to purchase oil in yuan.
If they agree to abandon the petrodollar.
And that’s exactly what appears to be happening now.
Western allies are reportedly reaching out to Iran — not the U.S. — to open Hormuz.
Again, why should this matter to you if you’re American?
Because if these allies cut deals with Iran to keep oil flowing by purchasing with yuan (not dollars), it will signal the end of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
For those who aren’t familiar with reserve currency status, let me put it this way: for the past 70 years the U.S. has been able to run up unimaginable debt because dollars are universally used in most trade, especially oil. If that ends, then the demand for dollars drops — and inflation will surge to much, much higher levels.
In other words, the end of the petrodollar would be the end of the American way of life as we know it. It would likely also mean the closure of U.S. bases in the Gulf and the end of its “protection” of Gulf States who rely on the U.S. military.
Why?
Because the one thing this war has shown the world is that the U.S. military — which hasn't fought a modern state since WWII — is not as invincible as once believed. And whether we Americans want to admit it or not, military might — not manufacturing capacity or “real” wealth — sustains the dollar.
This means the Iran war could officially herald the end of U.S. dominance in the Middle East and the end of the American Empire.
Not great news, I know. But better to be aware of what’s happening and expect the possible consequences than be blindsided.
So, watch closely in the coming weeks to see if Trump can find a miracle exit ramp that allows the U.S. to open Hormuz and keep the petrodollar alive. Because the alternative means things could get very dicey very quickly for us.
We are witnessing history. Take notes.
I’m posting this because I believe events are quickly unfolding in the Persian Gulf that may soon affect the lives of all Americans.
I’m not expecting Iran to nuke Israel, but I think it may unleash something equally devastating on the U.S.
First, let’s get something out of the way. It doesn’t matter if you think this war is legitimate or not, whether you think Iran is evil incarnate or not. The only thing that matters is that we’re in this war now and desperately need to find an exit strategy because the Strait of Hormuz cannot remain closed indefinitely.
Hormuz is the lifeline of the global economy, and if it stays closed even through the end of the month countries around the world, and especially Europe, will begin to feel enormous pain. Australia only has 14 days of liquid natural gas (LNG) left in its stockpiles. Europe’s energy stockpiles have already dropped below 30%.
Over the past several days one thing has become clear: despite its rag tag military that has been “100% defeated,” Iran continues to wield control over Hormuz. With drones, mines, and missiles perched in tunnels and cliffs, ships are literally terrified to transit without Iran’s “approval.” Even worse, Iran has shown no signs of surrendering; in fact, it seems ready to hunker down for the long haul.
The U.S. knows it cannot force Hormuz open without suffering unacceptable losses of lives, ships, and equipment — so Trump has reached out to western allies for assistance.
Here’s the problem: over the past 48 hours Trump has received nothing but rejections. The UK, Germany, Italy, France, Japan, Australia, South Korea — all have refused to send ships to confront an Iranian military that has been “100% defeated.”
And honestly, you can see their point: they weren’t consulted about this war. They had nothing to do with Hormuz’s closure. So why should they risk lives and assets forcing it open? If the world’s most powerful military can’t get the job done, what can they possibly do to help?
Trump has responded by reminding allies that they rely on Hormuz more than the U.S., so it’s in their best interest to assist. He’s even warned of a “very bad future” if allies don’t cooperate.
And now we get to the part that matters most to all of us.
Iran has indicated that it is willing to open Hormuz to ships — except those belonging to the U.S. and its allies. The other hitch? Anyone purchasing oil that leaves the Gulf must do so not with dollars, but with Chinese yuan.
Iran isn’t trying to defeat the U.S. militarily. As a member of BRICS, it’s going for the economic jugular.
Remember that Europe and other American allies desperately need oil and LNG. They can’t survive without it. Yet they’ve all clearly refused to send military assistance to “help” the U.S. open the strait they need more than the U.S.
Ah, but these countries could cruise through the Gulf and solve their energy problems overnight — if they agree to purchase oil in yuan.
If they agree to abandon the petrodollar.
And that’s exactly what appears to be happening now.
Western allies are reportedly reaching out to Iran — not the U.S. — to open Hormuz.
Again, why should this matter to you if you’re American?
Because if these allies cut deals with Iran to keep oil flowing by purchasing with yuan (not dollars), it will signal the end of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
For those who aren’t familiar with reserve currency status, let me put it this way: for the past 70 years the U.S. has been able to run up unimaginable debt because dollars are universally used in most trade, especially oil. If that ends, then the demand for dollars drops — and inflation will surge to much, much higher levels.
In other words, the end of the petrodollar would be the end of the American way of life as we know it. It would likely also mean the closure of U.S. bases in the Gulf and the end of its “protection” of Gulf States who rely on the U.S. military.
Why?
Because the one thing this war has shown the world is that the U.S. military — which hasn't fought a modern state since WWII — is not as invincible as once believed. And whether we Americans want to admit it or not, military might — not manufacturing capacity or “real” wealth — sustains the dollar.
This means the Iran war could officially herald the end of U.S. dominance in the Middle East and the end of the American Empire.
Not great news, I know. But better to be aware of what’s happening and expect the possible consequences than be blindsided.
So, watch closely in the coming weeks to see if Trump can find a miracle exit ramp that allows the U.S. to open Hormuz and keep the petrodollar alive. Because the alternative means things could get very dicey very quickly for us.
We are witnessing history. Take notes.
https://substack.com/@monicaunplugged/note/c-228935291
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