CA-GOV: Two Republicans Lead California's Gubernatorial Primary

[RandySF]

UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times Poll: “Despite a long, entrenched Democratic reign over California politics, a new poll shows two Republicans leading by slim margins in the state’s 2026 race for governor as the June primary election fast approaches.”

“The confounding results appear to be mostly due to the state’s left-leaning electorate feeling uninspired by any single candidate in the crowded field of eight top Democrats. Because of California’s top-two primary rule, that lethargy could lead to Democrats being shut out of a November election that will determine the next leader of the largest state in the union, though that is still considered unlikely.”


https://politicalwire.com/2026/03/18/two-republicans-lead-californias-gubernatorial-primary/

[Trueblue1968]

1. Democratic candidates. Who are they.

[lame54]

3. Swalwell, Porter

[pat_k]

24. And 6 others

Undecided 16%

Two Republicans at 16% each for a total of 32%

Three Democrats in double digits: Swalwell (13%), Porter (13%), Steyer (10%) for a total of 36%

Five Democrats in single digits for a total of 15%

Total for Democrats 51%
Total for Republicans 32%

How likely is it that all eight Democrats stay in the race?

The answer is zero chance.

How likely is is that less than 50% of the undecided vote breaks for Democrats?

The answer is zero chance.

For Republicans to be the top two, you'd have to assume Republican vote share of 40% evenly split, and a Democratic vote share of 59% evenly split among the current double digit contenders.

How likely is it that the Democratic vote would continue to be evenly split among Swalwell, Porter, and Steyer?

Not a chance

[Initech]

32. How the fuck are people still undecided?

Don't vote for shitty Murdoch endorsed candidates! You know how this ends!

[pat_k]

34. The slate of candidates won't even be official until 3/21

And the list of candidates that filed was just announced March 7.

CA governor race set
8 Dems, 2 Republicans file to be on ballot in June
By Yue Stella Yu | CalMatters
Published March 7, 2026 1:00 PM

https://laist.com/brief/meet-the-candidates-officially-running-for-california-governor

What's next? The secretary of state’s office says it will verify the paperwork their campaigns submitted and publish an official list of primary candidates by March 21.

[Initech]

35. I'm extremely worried that the GOP is going to try something funny with the election.

They've been coming after California for years and decades. This would be their chance if something got screwed up, then we'd be stuck with a Trump / Murdoch ass kissing cultist.

[pat_k]

38. DeJoy's "Delivering for America" plan to destroy postal service is coming home to roost

Something like 80 to 85% vote by mail in CA.

And it is young people and other Democratic leaning groups that tend to mail their ballots close to the deadline.

CA does have a network of drop boxes and is likely to do a good job of getting the word out that people MUST either mail their ballots VERY early or get them to a ballot drop box by the deadline.

[crimycarny]

29. I really liked Porter until she lost her run for CA Senate and claimed the election was "rigged"

It just felt like sore loser vibes. Then there was the viral video of her yelling at a staff member. Apparently, she had the 2nd-highest staff turnover, second only to Nancy Mace. Not a good sign if your staffers can't stick with you.

Too bad, I thought she was very effective in the House with her whiteboard.

[IcyPeas]

6. Here are the 10 candidates:

Here are the 10 candidates:

Xavier Becerra, Democrat, former U.S. Health and Human Services secretary and former California Attorney General

Chad Bianco, Republican, Riverside County Sheriff

Steve Hilton, Republican, Fox News contributor and former adviser to conservative British prime minister David Cameron

Matt Mahan, Democrat, mayor of San Jose

Katie Porter, Democrat, former U.S. representative representing Orange County

Tom Steyer, Democrat, billionaire entrepreneur and former presidential candidate

Eric Swalwell, Democrat, U.S. representative from the Bay Area

Tony Thurmond, Democrat, state superintendent of public instruction

Antonio Villaraigosa, Democrat, former mayor of Los Angeles and former Assembly Speaker

Betty Yee, Democrat, former state Controller

[Fiendish Thingy]

2. Some selfish saboteurs need to drop out.

Starting with the tech bro puppet mayor of San Jose.

[IcyPeas]

8. Yes. Saw a tv ad and he's walking around with Rick Caruso.

That was an eye opener. Caruso.... another "democrat"

Whoever thought that ad was a good idea? Are they trying to attract Republicans or Democrats.

Enough with the billionaires!!

[Celerity]

10. This tech-backed mayor jumped into California's gov's race with a bang. Now 'he might as well drop out.'

Matt Mahan, a centrist Democrat with an anti-establishment streak, is polling at 3 percent.

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/18/matt-mahan-stalled-california-governor-race-00833198

https://archive.li/na8V6

SAN FRANCISCO — Matt Mahan’s late foray into the race for California governor started with a Super Bowl ad, a rush of Silicon Valley support and speculation fanned by Mahan’s camp and others about tech titans underwriting a campaign to upend Democratic politics in the nation’s most populous state. But seven weeks later, Mahan’s campaign is stalled.

The latest polling from POLITICO and its partners puts the San Jose mayor at 3 percent, almost exactly where he stood in other surveys before entering the race. He has qualified for one upcoming televised debate, but is polling below the threshold to make another. And while Mahan has raised more money than any candidate other than billionaire Tom Steyer, the more than $13.3 million that two major PACs supporting him have amassed is far less than the tens of millions some supporters had telegraphed, according to two prominent Democratic fundraisers in Silicon Valley, who were granted anonymity to describe private conversations.

A 43-year-old, centrist Democrat with an anti-establishment streak, Mahan may still have time to make a mark in a race that has no clear frontrunner, with the election nearly three months away. Viewed when he got into the race as a vehicle to power for the tech industry and a disruptive force in Sacramento, a cavalry of donors could still arrive to pull him into contention. Mahan has been on a media blitz in recent days, traveling to New York to appear on “The Daily Show” with Jon Stewart, MS Now’s “11th Hour with Stephanie Ruhle” and “Morning Joe,” while touting his recent endorsement from Majority Democrats, a center-left group that has backed Democrats like Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger and Texas Senate hopeful James Talarico.

Link to tweet

But vast resources are required to compete statewide in California, and nothing Mahan has done to date suggests he is finding enough traction in his home state. “He completely overestimated his standing politically in the state of California as the sitting mayor of San Jose,” said Garry South, a veteran Democratic consultant who’s run several prior campaigns for governor and who previously advised Gov. Gavin Newsom. “He’s gone. He might as well drop out.”

snip

[Fiendish Thingy]

15. Anti-establishment my ass

You don’t get to be mayor or San Jose by being anti-establishment, and you don’t raise tens of millions from tech bros by being anti-establishment (unless by anti-establishment you mean anti-democracy)

[RussBLib]

27. Mahan was just on The Daily Show this past Monday

I thought he was pretty impressive. I'd bet he gets a bit of a bump from appearing on that show.

https://russblib.blogspot.com

[Celerity]

30. The more he gains the closer we are to the nightmare scenario of 2 Rethugs and no Dem(s) in the general.

The same goes for all other Dems (other than the top 2 or maybe, maybe top 3) gaining.

Our jungle primaries need to be shut down. I have always disliked them.

[Bobstandard]

31. His appearance convinced me he won't drop out

He’s so personally ambitions he won’t consider the greater good, just his own career

If he turns out to be the Ralph Nader of this campaign his only path forward will be in the Republican Party.

He and everyone else under 10% should make an inspirational speech then drop out leaving themselves a path for the future in Democratic politics. If they don’t and Republicans win, they’ll never live it down.

[JI7]

4. Everyone other than Porter and Swalwell needs to drop out

[fujiyamasan]

7. Agreed they have no chance and are simply crowding the field

[fujiyamasan]

5. Too many democrats splitting the difference

Time for some like Tom Steyer to drop out. Another billionaire with a big ego. I’m not a fan of Porter’s antics, but she at least differentiates herself and is policy driven.

People are worried about healthcare and rising costs (mostly driven by the federal government of course). Either way, Steyer is at the bottom of my picks for the primary. Leaving the republicans to win this would be catastrophic.

[karynnj]

9. Although it is past the time to get names off the ballot,

Last edited Wed Mar 18, 2026, 08:30 PM - Edit history (1)

I suspect that as the election comes closer, there will be moves to the higher ranked Democrats. One clue of that is that in most polls as much as a fourth of voters are undecided.

Given the number of Democrats, I think it is fair to assume the lions share of them will choose a Democrat ... and likely mostly the ones doing best. All the top candidates are pretty close together. In most polls the top three are all in the teens and are within 4 or 5 points. The 20 to 25 points undecided could EASILY move at least one Democrat as a winner.

I realize this is only two month and a half out and there should have already been some movement behind at least one Democrat. At least one needs to gain a lot more energy than they have. ( ie contrast with the huge energy both Talarico and Crockett had in a state hard for a Democrat to win.)

[pat_k]

22. Of course there will be moves and a majority of the 16% undecided ...

... are likely to be Democrats undecided in the face of eight contenders -- people just waiting for things to shake out a bit.

I think the speculation in the article about this being an effect of unhappy Dems is ridiculous.

There is a hell of a difference between wanting your electeds to be more forceful in opposition and actually voting FOR that opposition.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100221106347#post16

[Mz Pip]

26. Steyer is running lots of ads

I started to see ads for Swalwell a couple of days ago. Porter is asking for money, a lot. The other 6 may be competent people but they need to drop out. But egos in politics are large, unfortunately.

I’ve been watching this for weeks and it’s pretty dismaying. The Republicans are salivating at the chance to throw the governorship to a right wing Republican.

[RussBLib]

28. isn't the CA primary June 2? nt

[karynnj]

37. Yes. I corrected my post. thanks.

[pinkstarburst]

11. This is giving horrible 2024 energy

Anyone who is not in the top 3 needs to accept this is not their time and drop out.

Steyer really frustrates me. Has he ever held a political office before? If I'm understanding this correctly, he's run for president and run for governor of California, just on pure ego and zero qualifications?

[pat_k]

21. Ridiculous article

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100221106347#post16

[doubleplusgood]

12. "The "Jungle Primary" concept is idiotic

How did anyone think this form of primary would best represent what people actually wanted? Either go back to primaries by party OR go to a ranked-choice system until someone gets 50% +1.

[Retrograde]

13. The people voted for it

it was passed as a ballot propositions at the end of Schwartzenneger's final term: the people who bothered to show up for the election seemed to like it (FWIW, I voted against it).

[doubleplusgood]

14. Time to repeal this, then

And replace with something better

[pat_k]

17. No. It's a ridiculous article.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100221106347#post16

[pat_k]

18. The article is ridiculous

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100221106347#post16

[pat_k]

19. The article is ridiculous

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100221106347#post16

[pat_k]

16. What a ridiculous article.

Undecided 16%

Two Republicans at 16% each for a total of 32%

Three Democrats in double digits: Swalwell (13%), Porter (13%), Steyer (10%) for a total of 36%

Five Democrats in single digits for a total of 15%

Total for Democrats 51%
Total for Republicans 32%

How likely is it that all eight Democrats stay in the race?

The answer is zero chance.

How likely is is that less than 50% of the undecided vote breaks for Democrats?

The answer is zero chance.

For Republicans to be the top two, you'd have to assume Republican vote share of 40% evenly split, and a Democratic vote share of 59% evenly split among the current double digit contenders.

How likely is it that the Democratic vote would continue to be evenly split among Swalwell, Porter, and Steyer?

Not a chance

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2026-03-18/la-me-pol-2026-election-california-berkeley-poll-governor

[ColoringFool]

20. WHAT THE BLOODY HELL?!?!

[pat_k]

25. The speculation in the article is ridiculous

I think the speculation in the article about this being an effect of unhappy Dems is ridiculous.

There is a hell of a difference between wanting your electeds to be more forceful in opposition and actually voting FOR that opposition.

And just a quick look at the breakdown makes it clear a set of vanishingly unlikely things would have to happen for the two Republicans to come out on top

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100221106347#post16

[BootinUp]

33. It is very unlikely the 2 pukes will advance. Nt

[kwolf68]

36. Hope what happened in Illinois doesn't happen here

Too many Democrats staying in splits the vote. This is the same bullshit that hurt Gore and Clinton, they just were not calling themselves Democrats. And people vote for who they like. Yea, Stein maybe hurt Hillary, but she had fans. The right thing to do was for Stein to fully endorse Hillary. Of course she didn't. But I see "the party people" don't either. Everyone has a big giant ego it seems.