The risk to the US is much less than the global problem. The risk to California is higher than inland.

[Melon]

Edit..this was supposed to be a response within the gas spike thread. Not stand alone. I can erase and repost in that thread if this is better there.

A few days into this when oil spiked, the spread of Brent to WTI closed to $2 a barrel. A typical spread would be $5 a barrel.
That same gap has now spread to an unbelievable $13 a barrel. The US is advantaged in every sense of the word over Europe and Asia. China is buying oil at very high rates above Brent in the market. China, South Korea, and Taiwan companies are declaring force majeure on chemical contracts due to a lack of raw materials.

WTI oil price is volatile but dropping due to the fact it’s locked to the US. The admin suspended the Jones Act and oil is shipping direct from Venezuela to US companies. WTI absolutely has price risk but at a much lower level than Brent.

The largest spike in our oil to gas infrastructure is going to occur in California. California has been buying 60% plus of its oil imported from Korea and others. They’ve moved away from domestic sourced material while at the same time had the Phillips 66 refinery closed in Dec. 25 and Valero closing in April. Import oil is going to become unavailable unless price offers out compete Asian offers above Brent. I believe Californians are at an exponential risk of price hikes versus the rest of the US.

The Trump admin will absolutely leverage oil policy against blue California.

[enid602]

1. Trends

One can’t believe all that we hear and read is in the news, but it looks as though we’ve lost most of our assets in the Gulf. If the $ takes a plunge and NATO goes on without us, the world order as we’ve known it since 1945 will change forever. Huge inflation in the US. The situation in Israel appears to be more dire than we’ve been told. China, EU, Mexico and Canada have reconfigured their trading relationships, leaving us out of the picture.

This is Putin’s wet dream.

[Melon]

2. It is a dream for Putin. But my take above is towards

Gasoline risk or even manufacturing risk due to oil versus the political fallout from the conflict.

Russia is making good money. The discount for sanctioned oil will likely be gone. EU is actively debating buying oil and or Naptha from Russia.

Natural gas in EU was 5.5x is the price of US natural gas. There $200 electric bill for there apt is now $500. EU is now very reliant on China for chemicals. That’s now not a good situation at all.

The world will be very hurt short and midterm with inflation. The US is in a much better position than the rest of the world for this. Our energy pain as gasoline and heating bills are not going to be anywhere near what is going to happen to Europe and Asia unless fundamentals further shift.

[enid602]

3. Dollar

The dollar is different than the Euro, Pound, Yuan, etc in that 90% of dollars are held outside of the US. If the dollar ceases to be the unit of exchange for world trade, all those dollars come back home, resulting in hyper inflation.

[Melon]

4. The post was meant to be placed in the gasoline price thread.

Comment was regarding gasoline prices. I don’t agree that the dollar can be replaced currently, but that’s not this thread.