'The stakes are enormous': how a prolonged Iran war could shock the global economy

[marmar]

(Guardian) In the days after the US and Israel first bombed Iran, financial markets bet the economic fallout from Donald Trump’s “little excursion” in the Middle East would be short-lived.

“There are risks from higher oil prices longer term. But this is a tail risk,” one US-based fund manger said after the airstrike killing Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. “History has shown time and time again that geopolitical flare-ups like this tend to be short-lived. This one should prove to be no exception.’’

Goldman Sachs told clients it expected temporary disruption. “Oil prices to decline throughout the year. But risks are skewed to the upside,” its analysts wrote. UniCredit suggested crude would be capped at about $80 a barrel. “Given its struggle for survival, the Iranian regime has an incentive to keep its response measured”.

Three weeks later, the prospect of a drawn-out war is causing mounting economic problems. Oil prices have soared above $100 a barrel, European gas prices have doubled, volatility stalks financial markets, and consumers worldwide are bracing for a surge in living costs. Central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank, warn the war could have a material impact on inflation and dent global growth. ..................(more)

https://www.theguardian.com/news/ng-interactive/2026/mar/22/iran-war-global-economy-donald-trump-oil-prices-inflation

[NoMoreRepugs]

1. If those smartest guys in the room were so wrong my question is why do they still have their jobs??

[CanonRay]

2. The financial markets do not realize

that an actual madman is running the country, surrounded by idiot sycophants and/or Christian Nationalists-Nazis. Add a few actual Russian agents into the mix. Their hair should be on fire.