US has only destroyed 1/3 of Iran's missiles

[SamuelTheThird]

What happened to the 90%? I've noticed most (except a couple die-hard delusionals) of the rah rah military people here have shut the hell up.

WASHINGTON, March 27 (Reuters) - The United States can only determine with certainty that it has destroyed about a third of Iran's vast missile arsenal as the U.S. and Israeli war on the country ​nears its one-month mark, according to five people familiar with the U.S. intelligence.

The status of around another third is less clear but bombings likely damaged, destroyed or buried those missiles in underground tunnels and ‌bunkers, four of the sources said. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity given the sensitive nature of the information.

One of the sources said the intelligence was similar for Iran's drone capability, saying there was some degree of certainty about a third having been destroyed.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-can-only-confirm-about-third-irans-missile-arsenal-destroyed-sources-say-2026-03-27/

[leftstreet]

1. I don't believe a word they tell us n/t

[SamuelTheThird]

2. Good point

[RockRaven]

3. Every time you hear what their new plan is, consider it in the context of their already

demonstrated incompetence and unwarranted confidence.

[displacedvermoter]

8. I imagine damaged missiles are being repaired

as they can be. Parts from other damaged or destroyed ones are being salvaged. And it seems likely where storage tunnels were bombed, efforts are being made to excavate the debris.

Experience shows that much war industry work continues in the midst of war zones, see Ukraine today, or London or North Vietnam or Stalingrad from earlier wars.

I believe we are in for a hell of a fight, with an opponent with thousands of years of experience behind them, and we are led by imbeciles and a purged senior military.

[displacedvermoter]

12. And I have 200% confidence that our adversary is currently

taking the most effective steps they can to thwart that "remarkably efficient destroying machine" including killing and making as many human cogs of that magnificent machine as possible.

PeaceWave, read about how the Vietnamese dealt with an earlier US killing machine. It is instructive, Ho and Giap were brilliant at thwarting things

[displacedvermoter]

21. Iran has something like 90 million people

and is energy independent, has some of the best drone technology in the world, and has the world over a barrel (of oil) in the Straits of Hormuz. North Vietnam was an agriculturally based state of some 20 million people, dependent on Chinese and Soviet technologies, that we literally "bombed into the Stone Age" early on in our air campaign against them. And still we lost that war, and something like 60,000 killed or missing and with 300,000 other casualties.

I hope we aren't the bully who pushed too hard.

And, by the way, Iran says they aren't negotiating, Trump says they are. What, in your scenario, convinces you they aren't telling the truth about negotiating, and Trump is? Fairly trusting of you given the steady stream of lies the White House loosens each and every day.

[maxsolomon]

5. Does anyone know anything with any certainty about this aerial bombing campaign?

I know more about the Ukraine War than this one.

Is the Pentagon even briefing the press on operations?

[sarisataka]

6. The 90% claim

Was for missile launchers destroyed, not missiles.

That claim is dubious as well, going by the continued Iranian missiles being fired, but it was no claimed 90% of the missiles were destroyed.

As pointed out above, if the 2/3 n7mber of missiles destroyed or rendered unusable is true, that is an amazingly effective result.

[SamuelTheThird]

9. Mmmmmeaaaaningless

They have more than enough missiles to decimate the gulf's energy infrastructure and desalinization. If it comes to that all this talk about our 'amazing' military will be flat pancakes.

[sarisataka]

13. Such numbers were meaningful

When Ukraine inflicted them on Russian equipment, but maybe a different conflict has different standards
But in case you missed my implication, I doubt those numbers are accurate.

" They have more than enough missiles to decimate the gulf's energy infrastructure and desalinization."
Such attacks have been vehemently declared to be WAR CRIMES. Iran would not commit such heinous actions, would they?

[SamuelTheThird]

14. It is a totally different conflict

I mean I don't understand why I have to even type that, considering the extremely obvious economic/societal impact on the way for the entire globe.

Israel and the US commit plenty of war crimes already, so that's a different discussion. Maybe, just maybe, there are no white hats. Or did you miss wtf happened in Gaza, or the girl's school (not the only school struck either)

[sarisataka]

16. I know there are no white hats in this war

it is an unjust attack on a regime that withing the last few months executed tens of thousands of its citizens for protesting the government. However some people want to pretend one side is the "good guys" and excuse their crimes because, reasons.

[gulliver]

7. There's no good information

The "sources" could be anything from intentional disinformation mongers to unlawful disclosers of state secrets during wartime.

Ultimately, the weakest points in the chain of a missile being fired are the (bloodthirsty, theocratic, patriarchal, misogynistic, homophobic, etc.) humans of the Islamic Republic. They are attacking civilians and non-combatant countries right now.

[SamuelTheThird]

10. Good thing Israel never targets civilians, right?

[gulliver]

18. It actually is.

I dunno. Morality, to me, suggests that a pluralistic, multi-ethnic democracy is far, far superior to any society or any country, such as Iran, where the fundamentalist, theocratic, homophobic, misogynistic, patriarchy rules with a murderous hand that deliberately targets civilians. The Islamic Republic is immoral. They are keeping their own citizens hostage. To me, that's just completely obvious. It's actually immoral in my opinion not to accept that as a simple fact given the evidence.

[SamuelTheThird]

19. so you're just going to duck what I said?

Israel bombed civilians, and starved them in Gaza.

Israel is also trying to make Iran a failed state, quite obviously.

Your moral vision is conveniently occluded.

[PeaceWave]

22. I'll pick up where Gulliver left off...

Israel's actions in Gaza were in response to a remarkably horrific terrorist act committed by Hamas - the Palestinian people's elected political representative. Over 1,200 individuals killed and over 250 individuals kidnapped for a nation with a population of approximately 10 million. What happened on 10/7/2023 in Israel would be the equivalent of a football stadium worth of Americans killed and a basketball arena worth of Americans kidnapped. Israel was obligated to respond to such a strike committed against its citizens. Anyone who thought otherwise simply isn't living in reality. But, unlike prior responses to prior terrorist acts committed on behalf of the Palestinian people by Hamas, Israel was going to attempt to completely eliminate Hamas. No more hiding in tunnels. No more hiding behind children. No more admonitions of "That's a war crime." What the terrorist group/political party elected by the Palestinian people to represent them started, Israel was going to finish. Why? Because enough is enough. An olive branch always offered first, by all means. But, if you choose to reject peace and commit an act like that which occurred on 10/7/2023, then you are responsible for the war (and all that war entails) that ensues.

[SamuelTheThird]

28. You don't get to starve a civilian population if you're attacked

You don't get to commit war crimes if you're attacked, you don't seem to understand this

[PeaceWave]

29. Be specific in your words. By "war crimes" you are referring to the killing of civilians...

And, yes, killing of civilians IS fair game when one side has already killed civilians. That's the harsh truth of war. Hitler's V-2 rocket attacks on Britain were followed up by the fire bombing of Dresden and other German cities. Before that, the Confederacy's murder, rape, robbery and arson of various Union cities was met with Sherman's burning of Atlanta. How Hamas, the Palestinian people who elected Hamas into power and those who continue to make excuses for Hamas' actions think that the ensuing conflict with Israel was likely to play out any differently was (and continues to be) a severe lapse in judgement.

[SamuelTheThird]

30. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_war_crimes_in_the_Gaza_war

Since the beginning of the Gaza war on 7 October 2023, the Israeli military and authorities committed numerous war crimes, such as the collective punishment of the Palestinian people, attacks on civilians in densely populated areas (including bombings of hospitals and medical facilities, refugee camps, schools and educational institutions, and municipal services); the torture and executions of civilians; sexual violence including rape; and genocide. Further war crime charges against Israel include forced evacuations, mistreatment and torture of Palestinian prisoners, and the destruction of cultural heritage. Humanitarian organizations such as Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, B'tselem, and Oxfam, as well as human rights groups and experts, including the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry and United Nations special rapporteurs, have documented these actions.[1]

Israel has faced legal charges for its conduct in the war. At the International Court of Justice, Israel was charged with committing genocide in Gaza.[2][3] In May 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants against Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant for war crimes and crimes against humanity, including using starvation as a weapon of war.[4]

[PeaceWave]

32. And? Did Hamas not know what the response to 10/7/23 might be?

The gloves came off on that date. If Hamas miscalculated that they would quite literally get away with murder, then that is on them and those who elected them into power.

[SamuelTheThird]

33. saying 'and?' to war crimes speaks volumes

Hopefully you're not discussing this in good faith

[PeaceWave]

35. Actually, what speaks volumes is your non answer to the question...

What did Hamas think would be Israel's response to 10/7/23?

[gulliver]

23. Not ducking it. Saying it isn't so.

Not in any comprehensible moral framework. You can't really compare a country that targets only terrorists with their actions an absolutely minimizes civilian casualties like Israel to one that deliberately targets civilians. You just can't. Don't even try. It's wrong. It's immoral. It insults the intelligence and morality and deliberately (or perhaps not) tries to drag others into that immorality.

[SamuelTheThird]

27. Absolutely minimizes civilian casualties? LOL

What reality are you living in?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Gaza_war

A study by OHCHR, which verified fatalities from three independent sources, found that 70% of the Palestinians killed in residential buildings or similar housing were women and children

[rsdsharp]

17. Oh, no, no, no. Donnie said yesterday that we had 99% decimated them.

I’m not sure how that’s possible, since decimation is one in ten. I guess if they had (for example) 1000 missiles, that would mean we’ve destroyed 99.

[Greg_In_SF]

20. Missiles don't

mean anything when you don't have launchers for them.

https://www.jpost.com/defense-and-tech/article-889435

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

25. While using up a shit load of our own

[underpants]

26. 33%. Trump will declare that we've destroyed 330% of their missiles!!!

[fujiyamasan]

34. I see this thread brought out the war cheerleaders

[Kingofalldems]

37. And one poster who has been here many times

and has been banned many times.

[fujiyamasan]

38. I think the two or three have put me on ignore

Which is fine. At this point, it’s pretty transparent that they are just boosters for Trump’s shitty misadventure. They’re possibly trolls. It’s a waste of time taking their bait.

But they should be called out in every thread they post. I don’t have any respect for anyone backing this. It’s one thing to excuse democrats for being dumb after 9/11 and voting for Bush’s war.

This time there’s no fucking excuse. There’s no support for this war. None.

Worse yet, they’re using the republican playbook of claiming those opposing it are using Russian or Iranian talking points or questioning our patriotism or whatever typical thing they do.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

36. Geology as warfare: Iran put its missiles where physics, not diplomacy, keeps them safe

CNN satellite analysis and Alma Research findings show Iran’s underground tunnel cities, with internal rail systems that move missiles to blast-door exits, have survived the bombing campaign largely intact. The geology, analysts say, is the real defense.

Link to tweet

https://www.thestatesman.com/world/iran-underground-missile-railway-tunnel-us-israel-strikes-operation-epic-fury-1503573121.html

Three weeks of intensive US and Israeli strikes on Iran’s ballistic missile infrastructure have destroyed radar systems, collapsed tunnel entrances, and cratered ventilation shafts across dozens of sites. Iran keeps firing. The reason, according to satellite analysis by CNN and assessments by Israeli security research centre Alma Research, lies not above the ground but hundreds of metres beneath it; inside a network of underground missile cities connected by internal railways, carved into mountains that no bomb in the current American or Israeli arsenal can fully reach.

Iran’s underground missile programme is not a recent improvisation. Reports that emerged as far back as 2020 claimed an automated railway system running through cavernous tunnels, transporting ballistic missiles between assembly halls, storage vaults, and blast-door exits. What is becoming clearer now, as Operation Epic Fury enters its fourth week, is the scale of what was built and the limits of what air power alone can do against it.....

The central constraint is geological, and it has now been publicly stated by Iran itself. Former IRGC Aerospace Force commander Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh said that Iran built its missile bases across provinces and cities at a depth of 500 metres.

The most powerful weapon the United States has for destroying hardened underground targets is the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator – a 30,000-pound bomb built specifically for this purpose. It can penetrate “approximately 60 metres of reinforced concrete or roughly 40 metres of moderate rock. Granite is harder than moderate rock. Five hundred metres is more than twelve times the weapon’s maximum penetration depth. The gap between the bomb and the tunnel is not a margin of error.”....

“IRGC did not prepare for this war by building rockets. It prepared by building railways inside mountains. The rockets are replaceable. The railways are permanent. And the granite that protects them was formed before mammals existed. The strait is 21 miles wide. The mountain is 500 metres deep. And the railway inside it is still delivering missiles to the surface,” he added.

Link to tweet

Iran has continued to fire ballistic missiles throughout Operation Epic Fury, including the attempted strike on the joint US-UK base at Diego Garcia. Trump has said the operation is running weeks ahead of schedule and that Iran’s military is finished. The satellite imagery and the institutional assessments tell a more complicated story: one in which the visible war, fought above ground, has made genuine progress, and the invisible war, fought half a kilometre underground, has barely begun.

There is a reason why only one-third of Iran's missiles have been destroyed. Iran has been preparing for these attacks for decades. Iran's missile facilities are beyond reach of bunker buster bombs and there is no practical way without a very large number of troops to take out these missies.