James Carville predicts Democrats will have 55-45 majority in the Senate...

[PeaceWave]

I don't profess to know what the man is smoking these days, but it's apparently quite good:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/james-carvilles-shock-midterm-prediction-will-terrify-donald-trump/

“So your prediction right now is Democrats will take both the House and the Senate at this stage?” Daily Beast political reporter Sarah Ewall-Wice asked Carville.

“With ease—not just ‘take,’” he responded. “I mean, I’m talking about eight Senate seats or something like that. But if you look at where we are at this moment, I don’t know how a person could honestly draw another conclusion… Right now, all of the evidence would have pointed to 55.”

[msongs]

1. lol also hillary and kamala will be president nt

[Eddie Haskell 60]

7. yeah, i think it's time for Carville to sit back and just enjoy the ride

Like me, I'm HORRIBLE at presidential predictions. I thought no way a Barack Hussein Obama would be elected less than 10 years after 9/11, or no way Trump would get elected.

[SocialDemocrat61]

2. He also predicted

Harris would win

[littlemissmartypants]

16. Are we sure she didn't?

[GP6971]

3. He is well past his shelf life.

[Melon]

4. Very concerning to be supported by Carville.

[Takket]

5. I'm just going to post the same thing I say every time his name pops up in a thread

He is never right about anything and I’m shocked that any person actually asks for his opinions.

[FascismIsDeath]

6. Carville is a relic and I've made fun of him myself. But I think he really just chooses to be optimistic about elections

It might be something he does just to keep himself sane.

[dsc]

8. I don't see how

Current is 53/47. We would need 8. ME, NC, IA, OH, TX, and MT gets us 6 and that is a stretch. And in AK and then what?

[karynnj]

10. I agree many of those are BIG stretches.

Alaska is less a stretch than MT or IA. Hard to think of any others than perhaps a very strange win in SC, where Trump has endorsed Graham. That plus incumbency means he likely gets the nomination. His extreme support on Iran might make that your 8th given your other 7 win.

[Bluetus]

9. Dude had better name some Senate races, because

just about everybody who is looking closely at this says:

* We should keep Minnesota and New Hampshire.
* We have a puncher's chance of holding Georgia, and Michigan and picking up Maine and N Carolina.

That would get us to 49, which is 2 short of control, considering Vance breaks ties. Where are the other 6 coming from?

* I'd like to think Brown has a chance in Ohio, but Ohio has been lost for a long time.
* Can we beat Cornyn? That would be a big upset, but not impossible
* Can Petola win in Alaska? Maybe

I have no idea where the other 3 could come from. It would be great to knock out Graham, but is that even a possibility?

Just getting to 51 would be huge. But we can't go forward with Schumer as Majority Leader.

[fujiyamasan]

13. Yeah I see 51 max

Texas is a real tough uphill climb. Paxton is unlikable, but even then democrats haven’t won a statewide race in over 30 years, which is really insane. I think Cornyn will be even tougher to beat. Talarico is a great candidate, but I still think the other major races you listed are more likely winnable.

Brown has a good chance, but Ohio hasn’t ceased to disappoint in recent years. Hopefully Huster Ramadumbass go down hard. I especially can’t stand the latter’s smug face.

SC will continue voting for Graham. I lived in the state for some time. Nothing will change their mind out there. I just hope democrats won’t waste too much money donating to his opponent this time.

I think Peltola may be one of the bright spots. I’m glad she was recruited to run.

[Bluetus]

20. I can understand antibellum SC not voting for Democrats, but

how the hell can they vote for Graham? I don't see anything attractive about him. He seems like an utterly loathsome creature, regardless of one's politics.

[Morbius]

11. James Carville - who had a moment over thirty years ago - has become...

...one of those people who say outrageous things because it gets them attention.

It's an outrageous prediction from a man with little credibility who just wants some TV time. I recommend paying little mind to this old man with a little mind.

[H2O Man]

12. Recommended.

In a very real sense, I think that is a possibility. The way things are going, it actually could happen. Yet anything can happen in the months between now and Election Day. However, considering the utter lack of talent in the administration, I do not think they have the capacity to deal with issues in a positive way. Indeed, they are now learning a very old lesson in life: one might think they can control violence, and for a brief time, it may appear that they can. But it turns out that the violence actually controls them, and forces them out of control.

[Celerity]

14. Carville is desperate for attention. His predictive record is poor.

[question everything]

15. Groan. After Obama won in 2008 Carville predicted that Democrats would rule for the next 40 years.

[Deminpenn]

17. I would not be so quick to dismiss Carville

He no longer works as a consultant meaning he's around regular people a lot more, listening and observing. If he's feeling a populist surge in the air way down in Louisiana, think about what that means for the rest of the country.

Personally, it's my sense, too, that this could be a 1932 level Dem wave. I can feel it, tell me honestly you can't.

[newdeal2]

19. Trump's disaster in Iran is a big political change

He is raising costs through the roof and most of that will hit over the summer and fall even if the hostilities end right now.

[themaguffin]

23. After 2016 & 2024, I don't know what to think, but I am optimistic about this November. I think that Carville..

has merit in this and agreed, I wouldn't dismiss him, though there are a lot of moving parts.

[dlilafae]

18. I'm going with this: Jim,

I'm banking on the Resident having so much fun (burning through all of our/US taxpayer money), that he decides to stage some nefarious type of intervention(s).

[chowder66]

21. We need 60+

[PeaceWave]

22. It does make you think though...Blue Wave or Blue Tsunami?

[BannonsLiver]

24. He's overly optimistic but I think the GOP is going to lose control of the senate.

Just a hunch.

[Boo1]

25. Agreed

Carville is overhyping things a little (maybe by design). We'd have to take Montana + Tennssee to get to 55, which includes everything closer than those as well. I think there is a much clearer path to 51, 52, or 53 though.

[walkingman]

26. Nothing wrong with being optimistic! Shoot the moon!

[mikewv]

27. Carville is always the fighter and I like that

I respect James Carville but yes, he is way too optimistic. We need 218 seats in the House and 51 in the Senate for simple majorities. This means we need 3 more seats in the House and 4 more in the Senate than we currently have. Yes, having more would be nice, especially in the House and because of Fetterman in the Senate. In the House, I think we win anywhere between 8-15 seats. In the senate, I like our chances of holding onto GA, NH, MN and MI at this point. I think we have a good chance of winning Maine, North Carolina and Ohio (Yes, only because Trump is unpopular atm). That puts us at 50. Peltola in Alaska is interesting considering Trump's negatives. We need 51. Alaska? Texas? Iowa? South Carolina? Florida? We only need 1 of the 5. This could all change tomorrow.