Democrats Risk a Historic Upset in California

[applegrove]

Democrats Risk a Historic Upset in California

April 1, 2026 at 3:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 138 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2026/04/01/democrats-risk-a-historic-upset-in-california/

Politico: “With a sprawling field threatening to split the vote and hand the governorship to a Republican, a late-hour effort failed to persuade longshot contenders to drop out. A preeminent labor group split its coveted endorsement four ways, elevating no one. And in the most recent upheaval, a televised debate was hastily canceled after an uproar from within the party that leaving out low-polling candidates of color would produce an all-white stage.”

[pwb]

1. The Republican label at every level of Government

is still dog shit. I don't see, especially independents, going for the puke because it is a wide selection? I even think pukes will stay home weakening them further.

[maxsolomon]

2. I think because its a Jungle Primary

top 2 face each other in the General, regardless of party.

worst case scenario, Dems split their votes among qualified candidates and 2 Repukes sneak through.

Here's the 10 candidates. 8 are Dems:
Xavier Becerra, Democrat, former U.S. Health and Human Services secretary and former California Attorney General
Chad Bianco, Republican, Riverside County Sheriff
Steve Hilton, Republican, Fox News contributor and former adviser to conservative British prime minister David Cameron
Matt Mahan, Democrat, mayor of San Jose
Katie Porter, Democrat, former U.S. representative representing Orange County
Tom Steyer, Democrat, billionaire entrepreneur and former presidential candidate
Eric Swalwell, Democrat, U.S. representative from the Bay Area
Tony Thurmond, Democrat, state superintendent of public instruction
Antonio Villaraigosa, Democrat, former mayor of Los Angeles and former Assembly Speaker
Betty Yee, Democrat, former state Controller

[usonian]

4. The top two primary vote winners get to battle for governor.

From USA Today

In California, there is a top-two primary system in which all candidates are listed on the same ballot. The top-two vote-getters move on to the general election, regardless of their party affiliation, meaning there is the potential for two candidates from the same party to face off in the general election.

Here's the problem

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/governor/general/2026/california/open_primary

Two Republicans could capture the two and ONLY ballot positions in the general election.



No Democrats dropped out.

I can't verify this, but it looks like you get one vote in the primary race (as opposed to "vote for 2 or 3" which happens in some races)

If this is the case, I must go with Swallwell, the leading Democrat.

What do others think?

[JBTaurus83]

3. What a mess. Anyone other than the top two Dems

Should drop out!

[usonian]

5. The deadline passed some time ago.

[Fiendish Thingy]

6. Clusterfuck of epic proportions

Who runs the California Democratic Party anyway?

I’m guessing the lame duck period will see passage of legislation repealing the jungle primary, so this can never happen again.

Meanwhile, all but the top two Dems who refused to drop out should become persona non grata in political life.

Swallwell has his own skeletons emerging, a conflict of interest regarding his ownership in an AI startup that he has been promoting to his colleagues (it’s AI software designed for election campaigns), otherwise I would say Porter and Steyer should drop out and endorse him.

[maxrandb]

7. Oh No! Dems is disarray from Politico! Took me a second to find this

https://www.abc10.com/article/news/local/california/ian-calderon-exits-california-governors-race/103-868e55fd-4e51-493b-bfb2-2cb2c2b95dac

"Calderon becomes first Dem to drop out. Endorses Salwell"

So no! It's not true that "no Dem has dropped out".

I believe that CA will get it together and NOT have a Retrumplican Governor.

Sometimes I think it's almost like Politico has an agenda.

[Bayard]

8. The 2 rethuglicans look pretty weak

I think Calif. will have a new Dem gov.

[applegrove]

9. I just have a feeling a fire needs to be lit under democrats.