Gallup Q1 2026: 49% Dem/Lean Dem Ind vs. 39% Repub/Lean Repub Ind

[pat_k]

https://abcnews.com/Politics/fewer-americans-calling-republicans-republican-leaning-independents-2015/story?id=131591280

My prediction: Felon approval ratings will plummet in the next set of polls -- not because of the war (or not just because of the war), but because pollsters will incorporate more accurate party identification percentages as they extrapolate from samples.

We'll still see 90% or so approval among Republicans, but that is 90% of a total that is rapidly shrinking.

[edhopper]

1. At least since Reagan

there has been such an ideological chasm between Dems and Repukes. The graph shows how many voters don't understand how America functions and what each Party stands for.
The swings of the independents is evidence of an unthinking electorate.

[everyonematters]

4. Too many people have been struggling for decades while the rich soak up more wealth.

Polls show that the independents and swing voters are standing with us now as a check on Trump, not because they believe in us. We need to show voters that we are going to make a difference.

[Iris]

5. And now universities don't even pretend to produce well-rounded citizens

It's all workforce development - an uncritical and compliant worker class

[pat_k]

6. It is not just a "swing" -- it is a migration.

Trumpublican -> Independent
Independent --> Democrat

The percentage of both Republicans and Independents have dropped, while the percentage of Democrats has grown.

Average across all quarters 2025 (Gallup)
27% Republican
45% Independent
27% Democratic


Q1 2026 (ABC)
25% Republican
43% Independent
30% Democratic

On Edit:
Since 2002, the only other year the percentage of Republicans was this low was 2013 (Gallup)

[LakeVermilion]

2. At this point...

if they are still lean Republican, they were never Independent.

[pat_k]

3. I suspect many 'leaners' are Repubs newly declared as Independents.

And that is an important psychological step.

People who have invested an entire life in an identity don't give up that identity easily. People living in Red and Red leaning places have a particularly high bar to get over because they believe/believed "everyone" around them is MAGA, when in fact, at least 1 in 4 are Dems (many of whom are no longer keeping their "heads down" ). There is no escaping the power of identity and the need to belong. Humans are social creatures

The thing is, there is movement. And that movement is accelerating. A change in party identification demonstrates serious cracks in entrenched beliefs. And those cracks open the door to a complete collapse of the residual threads binding them.